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000
FXUS61 KRNK 260729
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
329 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A wedge of high pressure will keep low clouds and occasional rain
showers or drizzle in the area through Saturday. Dry conditions
and very warm temperatures return for the end of the weekend and
remain into much of next week. Chances for rain increase Tuesday
with a frontal passage. Additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible, mainly in the afternoon hours each
day for the remainder of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Cloudy and cooler today.

2. Rain showers possible this evening into the overnight.

Plenty of cloud cover out there this morning, with easterly flow
and a low level inversion keeping plenty of moisture near the
surface. A mid-latitude cyclone was generating clouds across
much of the central CONUS and these were spilling towards the
Mid Atlantic region. Clouds will continue to be a feature
through the tomorrow, with increasing chances for light showers
beginning over the southern Blue Ridge and spreading east this
evening and into the overnight as isentropic lift increases.
Kept high temperatures on the low side with readings in the mid
50s to low 60s for the mountains, and the low to perhaps mid 60s
for the Piedmont. Any breaks in cloud cover could alter this
scenario, but do not see any reason the easterly wind component
would break down.

Tonight clouds lower even more with an elevated warm front
lifting across the western portion of the area. Overnight lows
will be warm with light rain showers continuing to be possible.

Confidence in the near term is moderate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) High pressure will remain wedged against the eastern slopes
of the Blue Ridge on Saturday.

2) Confidence is high for warmer weather by Sunday and Monday.

High pressure will remain wedged against the eastern slopes of
the Blue Ridge through Saturday. Meanwhile, a warm front will
move northward along the western periphery of the wedge. A
chance of showers should remain along and west of the Blue Ridge
during the morning, but these showers will retreat northward in
the afternoon. By Saturday night, high pressure will head
offshore, and the wedge should dissipate on Sunday as the flow
turns to the south. An upper level ridge building over the
Appalachian Mountains and increasing warm air advection at the
surface should boost temperatures well above normal with mid 70s
to mid 80s likely by Monday.

While dry weather is expected in general for Sunday through
Monday night, there are two exceptions. The first one comes
during Sunday afternoon as a few models hint at enough
instability to spark a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms near Bath and Greenbrier counties. The other one
occurs by Monday night and is a little more noteworthy due to a
low pressure system developing over the central Plains and
heading northeastward towards the Great Lakes. While the upper
level ridge should initially slow the progress of the
approaching cold front, the ridge will eventually weaken enough
to let the front approach the Mid Atlantic and bring showers and
thunderstorms into the mountains by late Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday.

2) A chance of showers and thunderstorms may continue through
the middle of the week, but there is considerable uncertainty.


Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more likely
across the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday as a cold front arrives.
However, the front should weaken and stall by Tuesday night as
it approaches the East Coast and becomes parallel to the zonal
upper level flow. The air mass does not cool much behind the
front, so temperatures for the middle of the week will still
remain above normal. Another low pressure system should develop
in the Plains by Wednesday, but there is considerable
uncertainty in the models with timing and placement of the
various rounds of convection forming ahead of this system. Some
of the showers and thunderstorms may impact the Appalachian
Mountains during both afternoons of Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Widespread MVFR conditions have developed in a persistent
easterly fetch of moisture. Lowering of ceilings to IFR is
possible early this morning for BCB, with improvement to MVFR
around 12Z. Elsewhere, MVFR should prevail this morning, with
improvement to VFR possible generally around 15-17Z. Tonight,
the lower levels saturate even more, and expect widespread
IFR/eventual LIFR in -RA beginning after 00Z for all sites.

ENE winds today will turn more SE in the mountains and easterly
east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon into Saturday morning.

Average confidence in the aviation forecast.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

MVFR or lower conditions likely to continue into Saturday
morning, with improving ceilings after 15Z. Sunday and Monday
should be mainly VFR. Winds turn more southerly Saturday through
Monday. Tuesday will see a cold front approach the area with
non-VFR weather possible in -TSRA areawide.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...SH