199
FXUS64 KSJT 040811
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
311 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...Severe thunderstorms expected again this afternoon and
evening...

A very moist and unstable airmass persists across the area again
this afternoon. A dryline is located across far West Texas, with
a residual outflow boundary bisecting the forecast area from
northwest to southeast. Strong to extreme instability exists
across the area per latest SPC mesoanalysis, with MLCAPE`s
3500-4500 J/kg. Deep layer shear is not particularly strong (0-6
km shear around 25 kts) but sufficient for supercells and intense
updrafts given the degree of instability. As of 2 PM, visible
satellite imagery already shows an agitated cumulus field across
western portions of the Big Country and northwest Concho Valley.
Latest HRRR develops convection across this area by 21Z (4pm
local), with storms expanding in coverage and tracking east across
the area during the evening hours. Very large to possibly giant
hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible.
As storms progress eastward with time, the main hazard will
transition to damaging winds, although large hail will still be
a concern. In addition to the severe threat, precipitable water
values near 1.5 inches will support torrential downpours, which
may lead to some localized flooding.

The airmass will remain very moist and unstable again for
Saturday ahead of a weak cold front and a shortwave trough
approaching from the west. Models still show fairly widespread
thunderstorm development across West Central Texas by afternoon
along the weak front, which should be situated across the Big
Country. Thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage by late
afternoon and early evening. There is yet another risk for severe
storms tomorrow, primarily south of the surface cold front and
maximized across western portions of the Concho Valley and farther
west across the Permian Basin, where SPC now has an enhanced
risk. A slight risk exists across the remainder of West Central
Texas. Shear is expected to be stronger tomorrow, especially
during the evening hours, which will support tornadoes, some
possibly strong within the enhanced risk area. Otherwise, large
hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible mainly
through the evening hours, with damaging winds becoming the main
threat overnight as storms push eastward with time. Heavy rainfall
is again possible tomorrow afternoon/evening, which may result in
some localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

After another afternoon and night of severe weather, main brunt of
the convection may be pushing out of West Central Texas by early
Sunday morning. Given this slightly faster movement, have lowered
POPs a little across the area for the time period starting at
sunrise Sunday morning. Some of the CAMs continue to show more
convection redeveloping during the afternoon but with the passage
of the upper level shortwave having already occurred, not
expecting the same type of coverage as we have seen.

After that, a drier pattern will return to West Central Texas and
allow everyone to have a break from the severe weather. Upper
level low over the central plains will continue, helping produce
mainly zonal flow across the area for the upcoming week. Will see
if any weak shortwaves end up getting embedded which may lead to
a small POP for one day, but overall, looks like most areas will
be dry for most of the time. Warmer as well, with afternoon highs
eventually climbing back well into the 90s once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR conditions currently present across the area. MVFR to IFR
ceilings are expected to build back in over the next few hours,
impacting all terminals. Some sites, primarily KJCT and KBBD, may
see visibility reductions, likely to the MVFR category, overnight
into mid morning hours. Skies will start to clear from SW to NE
after 15Z tomorrow, though our far eastern sites may not see CIGs
lift past high-end MVFR. Showers and storms will be possible yet
again during the afternoon and evening hours. They will initially
start out more scattered in nature before developing into a more
solid cluster of storms. Have given a best guess on timing based
on current hi-res trends but this will likely need to be adjusted
with future updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     78  61  78  65 /  70  90  20  10
San Angelo  86  62  79  66 /  60  80  40  10
Junction    88  64  81  67 /  40  80  60  10
Brownwood   79  62  77  65 /  40  90  20  20
Sweetwater  77  60  76  66 /  70  90  20  10
Ozona       85  62  78  66 /  40  80  50  10
Brady       81  63  76  66 /  40  90  40  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...50