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000
FXUS65 KVEF 250411
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
910 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy conditions are expected through the weekend along
with a gradual cooling trend as two low pressure systems move
through the region. The strongest winds will be in western San
Bernardino County, and a Wind Advisory has been issued for that
area. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures will fall below late
April normals, and there will be a chance of showers mainly along
and north of Interstate 40. Warmer and dryer conditions return next
week.
&&


.UPDATE...Breezy southwest winds across the area will continue
overnight before somewhat diminishing in the early-morning hours...
and then returning Thursday afternoon. West-southwest winds will
increase over the next few hours in western San Bernardino County to
around 40 mph. As such, a Wind Advisory is in effect. No changes
made to the forecast this evening, as it looks to be in good shape.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...1136 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024/


.SHORT TERM...through Friday night.

A pair of low pressure systems will be the main drivers for weather
over the next few days. The first system is currently off the
California Coast and will move through the Southwest United States
later today and tomorrow, followed shortly after by a system dipping
south from the Pacific Northwest tomorrow and Friday. There will be
three notable impacts from these systems: increased winds, chances
for precipitation, and cooler temperatures.

The development of a low level jet associated with the troughs will
lead to increased southwesterly surface winds for most of the
forecast area. A Wind Advisory will go into effect at 5 PM PDT for
western San Bernardino County, where gusts up to 55 mph are
expected. The Advisory will remain in effect through Friday,
although there may be occasional periods of weaker winds. The
strongest winds are expected to arrive on Friday as the deeper
trough drops in from the north. An increase in winds in the Morongo
Basin and Mojave National Preserve may necessitate the expansion of
the Wind Advisory into those areas by Friday. As of now, the NBM
gives those areas a 70 to 90 percent chance of reaching Wind
Advisory level gusts on Friday. Gusty winds and reduced visibility
due to blowing dust may make for difficult traveling conditions on
highways through San Bernardino County, including Interstate 15 and
Interstate 40.

Satellite imagery as of 11 AM PDT shows the development of a cumulus
field over Esmeralda County and far northern Inyo County, some of
which have started to produce lightning. CAMs indicate an increase
in instability this afternoon as the trough approaches the area.
Instability along with PWATs around 180 percent of normal point to
further development of showers and thunderstorms in that area
through the afternoon, along with some snow showers in high
elevations of the Sierra and White Mountains. POPs follow the
movement of the low and shift east into Nye and Lincoln counties
tomorrow. The day with the most widespread precipitation potential
is Friday as the second low moves in from the north, temperatures
cool aloft, and PWATs rise to 150 percent of normal or greater for
most of the forecast area. POPs north of Interstate 40 have
increased since the previous forecast package, particularly over
areas of high terrain. Las Vegas has a 72 percent chance of
receiving at least 0.01 inch of rain on Friday. The highest
precipitation totals between the three days should be in the
southern Great Basin, where up to half an inch of rain is possible
in Lincoln County. An inch or two of snow is also possible above
7000 feet in elevation, which includes the tops of the Spring
Mountains and Sheep Range. However, impacts are not expected from
this snowfall.

Temperatures are also expected to continue their downward trend as
heights fall aloft. Highs should be near average tomorrow and below
average by Friday. For Las Vegas, this means highs on Friday in the
low 70s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.

The base of the trough will push through the region Saturday leaving
a few lingering showers over the far eastern portions of Lincoln and
Mohave counties. The general flow will be from the northwest which
will keep some of the cooler temperatures in place. Highs Saturday
are expected to be about 6-9 degrees below normal. Heights will
begin to rise Sunday as a weak ridge moves into the western US,
resulting in warming temperatures through Tuesday. There are
indications that the unsettled pattern will continue through the end
of the week as another trough digs out of the Gulf of Alaska,
resulting in another cooling trend Wednesday and beyond; however,
confidence overall remains low at this time.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy south or southwest winds will
prevail through the TAF period with winds easing in intensity late
tonight through early tomorrow afternoon before returning again.
Wind gusts during the breezy periods will exceed 20 knots at times.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies are expected today with a few mid and
high clouds late tonight that will persist into tomorrow
afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Across the Mojave Desert and Colorado River Valley,
breezy southwest or westerly winds are favored through the TAF
period, with the strongest winds expected near KDAG where gusts to
35 knots or higher are likely by this evening. Skies will be mostly
clear with just some passing mid and high clouds. Further north,
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected in the Sierra and near
KBIH with CIGs falling to 5-8kft AGL and locally Gusty surface
winds. Shower activity may persist into the night before tapering
off prior to sunrise Thursday.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Varian
SHORT TERM...Meltzer
LONG TERM...Gorelow
AVIATION...Outler

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