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FXAK67 PAJK 232239

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
239 PM AKDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM.../ Wednesday night to Friday-Saturday / The stalled
weather front over the southern panhandle will weaken and
dissipate overnight. Upper trough will lift northeast over the
coast spreading rain onshore northern panhandle and the Yakutat

The next weather front is starting to move over the western
gulf tonight and then this front will reach the coast Thursday
night and Friday. Small craft level winds 25-30 kt with the
front, and then into the panhandle. Showers continuing behind the
front then some minor improvement with a slight off shore flow
ahead of the Saturday system. Location with the best improvement
chances appears to be the southern panhandle. For the northern
half of the panhandle showers should continue with a few small
breaks in the precipitation.

Model preference was for the NAM or NAM/GFS blend in the morning
models solutions. Few changes were needed to for the Wednesday-
Thursday period. More edits for Friday and Saturday we started the
change of incorporating the strong weather front into Southeast
Alaska for the Weekend. As a result bringing gale force winds to
the coast and into the Clarence Strait area for Saturday.
Confidence is average to above average.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday as of 10 PM Tuesday/
Models continue to be in good agreement to the advancement of lows
that will move into the gulf. On Friday a low will be in the
western gulf with the associated weather front rolling up on the
Panhandle. There looks like there could be a short but weak break
in the precipitation for the southwestern portion of the Panhandle
Friday night as one weather front advances east and the before
the next front comes across the gulf.

The next low should be in the southwestern portion of the gulf by
Saturday morning with its associated weather front already making
its way onshore of the Panhandle and likely spreading rain over
the area from south to north through the day. The low will move
into the central gulf Sunday night, continuing on to the
Fairweather Grounds before taking a turn to the southeast and
filling Monday into Tuesday. The theme for the holiday weekend
is: wet, but not windy. By Wednesday a ridge of high pressure
will build over the Panhandle and give a better chance of
some sunny breaks.

We have been watching the second low and it is still on track to
bring SCA to the outer coastal areas of area 51 and 52 briefly
early Friday morning. Elsewhere winds will to 15 kt or less
through Wednesday, with the southern inside waters showing favor
for 20 kt Friday through Friday night. Lowered temperatures a
couple of degrees for the weekend with little, if any, insolation
occurring. Temperatures are still expected to remain in the mid
to upper 50s during the day and range into the 40s overnight.

The ECMWF was used to nudge the forecast, resulting in small
changes overall.


.AVIATION...Lower clouds for TAF sites south of Frederick Sound
tonight will continue will be improving late tonight and early
Thursday. Limited flight hazards over the northern panhandle this
afternoon. Should see rain with lowering ceilings starting this
evening, and continue into the morning.


.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ042-043-051-052.




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