Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 240544
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
144 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry weather and spring like
temperatures into today. The next chance for widespread rainfall
arrives tonight and continues into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 130 AM EDT...High pressure continues to shift east of New
England this morning. Some thin cirrus continue to move across
the region based on observations and the GOES-16 IR imagery.
Some radiational cooling and decoupling has occurred in the dry
atmosphere with temps in the Adirondacks plummeting into the
20s. The 00Z KALY sounding is bone dry with a PWAT of 0.20". A
southerly breeze has kept temps up a bit in the Capital Region,
but a mere lightening of the winds will allow temps to fall
back into the 30s to around 40F here. Overall, expecting mins in
the 30s with some 20s over the Adirondack Park/southern VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There should be some noticeable sunshine Tuesday morning as thin
high clouds spread across the region. The clouds will thicken
through the afternoon and a south wind could be breezy at times
during the afternoon. There should be decent mixing through the
day, even with the diminishing sunshine. Highs Tuesday in the
60s but near 70 in warmer spots.

Rain spreads across our region Tuesday night and continues
Wednesday. Some semblance of a warm sector brushes through
mainly parts of eastern NY and New England Wednesday but the
core of the warmest part of the warm sector remains east and
south of our region. A low level southeasterly boundary layer
jet segment tracks through and the associated forcing and
isentropic lift will support some locally heavy rain later
Tuesday night and Wednesday. There could be a rumble of thunder
as well on Wednesday. Highs Wednesday in the 50s but near 60
southern areas.

Cold front and associated low level forcing exits Wednesday but
upper dynamics and upper cold pool tracks through our region
Thursday. So, widespread rain Wednesday decreases in coverage to
chances later Wednesday night. Keeping chances Thursday with the
upper dynamics and upper cold pool. Cold there be some small
hail and/or graupel Thursday? Sources of guidance show midlevel
lapse rates could be quite steep but too early to tell. Highs
Thursday in the 50s to around 60 but some upper 40s to around 50
northern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Periods of unsettled conditions expected through next weekend, with
possible improvement thereafter.

For Thursday night-Friday, the upper level wave affecting us through
Thursday should be departing northern New England. Some lingering
showers may occur Thursday evening, especially across higher terrain
areas of southern VT and the Adirondacks. Some snow could be mixed
in. Otherwise, shortwave ridging looks to build across for Friday,
allowing for generally dry conditions, with at least some breaks of
sun. Temperatures should cool into the mid 30s to lower 40s Thursday
night, then rebound into the upper 50s to lower/mid 60s for Friday.

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the next system,
which will be digging across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region,
and just how progressive the system becomes. Latest 12Z/23 GFS and
GEFs side on the more progressive side, with a period of rain or
showers possible late Friday night into a part of Saturday. The
12Z/23 ECMWF, on the other hand, allows the trough to close off over
the region, with a much slower progression through the region. This
would bring a longer period of rain or showers sometime Saturday,
with some showers possibly lingering into Sunday, some of which
could be mixed with some snow/graupel within any taller convective
elements and over higher terrain areas. For now, have included
higher chance PoPs for Saturday, tapering slightly for Sunday, with
best PoPs for Sunday across northern higher terrain areas. Timing of
onset of precipitation remains somewhat uncertain, as the arrival
time could hold off until later in the day Saturday if the system
amplifies to our south and west more than currently anticipated.

By Monday, assuming the system remains progressive enough and
without any upper level impulses dropping southward around its
western periphery, expect dry conditions with gradual warming.

Temperatures Saturday will depend on timing of precipitation, with
mainly 50s to lower 60s expected, but could be cooler if showers
arrive earlier. Saturday night-Sunday AM lows mainly in the mid 30s
to lower 40s. For Sunday, expect mainly 40s and 50s, perhaps even
cooler across higher terrain areas if a closed low and attendant
cold pool aloft move across.

Sunday night could be quite chilly, esp across northern areas, with
lows in the 20s and 30s expected. Warming for Monday, with highs
mainly in the 50s to lower 60s, although could be even warmer if
surface high pressure and ridging aloft builds in more quickly.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will gradually shift east today as the next storm
system approaches. High and mid level clouds will be increasing
throughout the day with VFR conditions expected through at least
00Z/Wed. Rain will then move into the forecast area from
southwest to northeast, impacting KPOU first. The steadier
rainfall, and MVFR conditions, will be possible closer to the
end of the TAF forecast period.

Winds will become light/variable early this morning, but should
remain from the south at 5-10 KT at KALB. South winds will
increase later this morning into the afternoon to 8-12 KT, and
may become gusty at KALB and KPSF by late afternoon, perhaps
reaching 20-25 KT.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will bring dry weather and spring like
temperatures through Tuesday. The next chance for widespread
rainfall arrives late Tuesday and continues into Thursday.

Relative humidity values will drop to 25 to 35 percent Tuesday
afternoon. Widespread rain is expected Wednesday. RH values
will recover to 70 to 100 percent tonight.

Winds will be south at 15 mph or less tonight, increasing to 15
mph with gusts possibly to 20 mph Tuesday afternoon. South winds
at 15 mph become east to southeast Wednesday morning and
afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers and streams continue to slowly recede from heavier
rainfall earlier this week.

Dry weather is expected today through Tuesday with slightly
above normal temperatures which will allow for some snowmelt in
the mountains. There will be some evaporation of the snow pack
and snow melt through Tuesday afternoon due to the the very dry
atmosphere and strong daytime April sunshine. So, not all the
snow melt will run off into area rivers through Tuesday
afternoon because of the evaporation.

The next chance for widespread precipitation mainly in the form
of rain will arrive Tuesday night and continue into Thursday as
a low pressure system lifts across our area. At least one half
of an inch up to an inch of rainfall is possible with this
system. The latest MMEFS shows only minor rises on area rivers
and creeks at this time. A few river points may touch action
stage late this week depending on how much snow melt and
rainfall combine into run off into rivers.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JVM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...MSE/NAS


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