Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 272335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
535 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

The quasi-stationary area of low pressure can be seen sitting over
northeast Nevada/northwest Utah on GOES-16 satellite this
afternoon. A nice band of moisture wrapped around the low has
fired off some intense convection across central/southern Wyoming
and eastern Colorado over the past few hours. Unfortunately for
any severe weather aficionados we have not seen anything in our
neck of the woods besides some fair weather cumulus clouds and
virga pop up along the Continental Divide, thanks to the majority
of the forecast area sitting under the dry slot from the low.
Temperatures have been much cooler today with all areas across
eastern Utah and western Colorado currently sitting 5 to 10
degrees below yesterday`s readings.

The broad area of low pressure will gradually begin to lift to the
northeast late tonight and into Monday. The slow departure of this
system will finally allow for a better chance for scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the higher terrain,
generally north of I-70, beginning late Monday morning and
continuing throughout Memorial Day. However, even before this
occurs, the NAMNest is picking up on a narrow band of convection
moving into far northeast Utah and northwest Colorado tonight.
This would most likely be associated with any sort of outflow
from the ongoing storms in southern Wyoming. Isolated PoPs were
put into that region between 00-06Z to account for this chance, so
it will be interesting to see if this pans out.

Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail across the
forecast area on Monday with temperatures cooling an additional 5
degrees or so in response to the ushering in of cooler air aloft.
This would be the first time for many areas to see seasonal, or
maybe even slightly below seasonal temperatures, since May 3rd.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

The low will have transitioned to an open wave by Tuesday morning
with the base of the shortwave lifting northeast across the
forecast area throughout the day. Scattered orographic convection
will persist, mainly over the northern and central mountains, as
the lower valleys in the Four Corners area begin to experience
some clearing. Unsettled flow in the wake of this disturbance
will more than likely allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to redevelop over the higher terrain Wednesday

The next upper level trough dropping in from the Pacific will
deepen off the West Coast through midweek. Lower heights will
begin to dig into the western CONUS by Thursday morning with a
drier southwesterly flow re-establishing itself across eastern
Utah and western Colorado as a result. The gradient will continue
to tighten through the end of the week as our forecast area
remains poised in between the approaching trough and a strong
ridge of high pressure amplifying to our east. As has been
mentioned previously, the arrival of these stronger winds could
see the return of critical fire weather conditions either Thursday
or Friday.

A shortwave trough will be ejected out ahead of the parent system
and quickly progress through the area late Friday into Saturday.
Not much moisture associated with this system at this time so the
dry weather looks to continue through the weekend.

Temperatures will gradually begin to rebound back to above normal
throughout the work week with some of the lower valleys
potentially climbing back into the low 90s by Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 533 PM MDT Sun May 27 2018

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours at all TAF sites
with early clear skies and less wind.




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