Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 182149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
249 PM PDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will continue over the region through
Monday night. A storm system will bring generous precipitation
to much of the central California interior from late Tuesday into
Thursday. A break from wet weather is expected Thursday night
through Saturday. Another storm could bring precipitation back
into the district next Sunday.


.DISCUSSION...The parade of storm systems through the central
California lately does not look like it will end anytime soon,
and that`s wonderful news for drought-stricken areas of the state.
We`ve got at least two more storms on the horizon. The next one
will be a gully washer and it will have a tropical moisture
connection. It`s arrival will be preceded by an increase in
cloudiness Monday night followed by the arrival of precipitation
across much of central California Tuesday. Between now and then,
dry weather will prevail under a weak ridge aloft.  Until the
ridge amplifies over central California Monday, a southwesterly
flow aloft will bring additional mid level cloudiness into the
CWA, and there will be little more than sprinkles or a few snow
flurries over the higher elevations of the Sierra prior to
midnight. Temperatures will trend warmer during the next 24 hours,

And now for the next storm. The most substantial precip from it
will occur between Tuesday evening and Wednesday night. During
this time, a southwesterly flow aloft will bring a rich supply
of tropical moisture and mild air into the CWA. Snow levels,
which may initially start out near 5,000 feet Tuesday, will rise
well above 8,000 feet by Wednesday morning. Orographic enhancement
will support heavier precip totals along the west slopes of the
Sierra. Below the snow level, heavy rainfall could lead to
localized flash flooding, mud slides, rock slides and debris flows
in the Sierra Wednesday through Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the
highest elevations (above 8,000 feet) will likely receive a
healthy dump of snow from this storm where 2 feet or more of new
snow could fall by Thursday morning. More importantly, the
impacts from this storm could be far reaching. Flooding will be
the primary threat in the foothills and higher elevations of the
Sierra. Even in the San Joaquin Valley, minor urban and street
flooding is possible in some localities Wednesday through
Wednesday night, particularly over the eastern portion of the
valley north of Kern County. Folks with travel interests
throughout central California should closely monitor the latest
forecasts from the NWS during the next day or so for advisories,
watches and warnings as the storm approaches. On a side note,
the influx of tropical moisture during the height of the storm
Wednesday into Wednesday night could be accompanied by a few
flashes of lightinng and rumbles of thunder in some locations.

By midday Thursday, most of the precipitation from this storm
will have ended. However, blustery northwest winds will usher
in colder air and snow levels could fall as low as 3,000 feet by
Thursday evening. By then, however, precipitation will generally
be spotty and light. Nonetheless, a dusting of snow could fall
down to this elevation by Thursday night, and that includes the
mountain passes of Kern County. Otherwise, a few lingering snow
flurries can be expected over the mountains Thursday night as
this storm system moves east of California.

It looks like we`ll get a break from wet weather Friday through
Saturday night as short wave ridging aloft moves over the Golden
State. The models now bring another storm system into central
California by next Sunday with a renewed chance of precipitation,
especially over the mountains. Details on this second storm will
be forthcoming in future forecast discussions.


VFR conditions will prevail throughout the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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