Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 230655
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
155 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

Upper level ridge continues to build across the central U.S. into
the Canadian prairies, and this trend will keep our area dry
through tonight. Some high clouds with a developing MCS over
Iowa/Minnesota may spill into the northern CWA later this morning,
but the storms themselves will be blocked by the surface high over
the Great Lakes. While temperatures rise well into the 80s today,
the east/northeast flow will keep dew points in the more
comfortable 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

The longer range of the forecast remains a challenge. The ridge
will begin to break down later this week, allowing for a shortwave
to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The amount of
moisture advection is uncertain, as most of the models continue
to advertise a tropical type system in the Gulf as the weekend
begins. Also, as we go into early next week, a rex block starts to
set up, preventing any significant surge of this system`s
remnants northward. Thus, any showers/storms in our area will be
more diurnally driven. PoP`s will generally be in the 20-30% range
at best, but the holiday weekend should have extended periods of
dry weather. It will be quite warm, though, with highs in the 90
degree vicinity and heat index values peaking in the mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Overnight fog development is looking less and less likely...as
04z/11pm temp/dewpoint spreads of 4-10 degrees are common across
the area. Despite diminishing winds and continued mostly clear
skies, think the very dry airmass will keep widespread fog from
forming. High-res model output agrees, with most solutions
focusing the fog close to Lake Michigan. Will maintain some slight
visby reductions overnight, but do not think they will be
significant or long-lived. A band of mid-level clouds is still
expected to develop into the Illinois River Valley early Wednesday
morning, but model RH fields suggest these clouds will dissipate
by midday. Winds will initially be from the NE at less than
5kt...then will become E/SE at 5-10kt after sunrise.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Barnes



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