Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 280759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
359 AM EDT Mon May 28 2018

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon May 28 2018

Above normal temperatures will continue this week. Today will be the
warmest day of the week under the influence of a ridge of high
pressure. Unsettled weather will return by Tuesday as the remnants
of Alberto get closer. Then, dry weather is expected next weekend in
the wake of a cold front.


.NEAR TERM.../Today and Tonight/
Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon May 28 2018

Main focus for the near term will be on the heat and humidity as an
upper ridge should hinder convection.

Satellite and model rh progs suggest mid and high clouds will be
increasing from southeast to northwest today and tonight ahead of
the remnants of Alberto, which is expected to move over the Florida
panhandle today and over Alabama tonight. 850 millibar temperatures
and NAM12 surface temperatures favor the warmest temperatures today
over northwestern sections closer to the upper ridge. Blend supports
this with afternoon highs near 95 degrees in the Lafayette vicinity
with highs around southeast, where there will be more cloud cover.
With the increase in cloud cover, there is a potential, blend highs
will be a few degrees to warm, especially southeast. So, confidence
to highs within a few degrees is not as high there.

With the increase in clouds, blend lows in the upper 60s and lower
70s look good tonight.


.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday through Wednesday night/
Issued at 311 AM EDT Mon May 28 2018

The remnants of Alberto will be the main focus for the short.

Models in good agreement that the low will lift over Tennessee on
Tuesday and western Kentucky and east central Illinois Tuesday night
and Wednesday. This is a slight westward trend in all the models.
The heaviest rain is expected to be over the Wabash Valley Tuesday
night and Wednesday, closer to the low center. This shows up nicely
in the 00z WPC QPF forecast and after coordinating with adjacent
offices, decided to use it. Parts or all of the Wabash Valley have
the potential to see over and inch or rain Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Went with occasional PoPs there and likely elsewhere over
that period. Could see a few storms as early as Tuesday afternoon
though, mainly south.

Being a former tropical system, do not expect a ton of lightning,
although weak to moderate model CAPEs support at least a slight
chance. Also, severe weather does not look likely with this system.

Will keep chance PoPs going through Wednesday night as the system
pulls away to the north, but trailing waves move through.

With the widespread rain, highs Wednesday will not be as warm as we
have been seeing. Otherwise, northwestern sections of the forecast
area could once again see well above normal highs in the lower 90s
on Tuesday. Blend handles this well and lends good confidence in the
temperature trend.


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday Night/...

Issued at 349 AM EDT Mon May 28 2018

Latest model runs show the remnants of Alberto taking more of a
west/northwesterly jog toward Lake Michigan. Regardless, rain and
thunderstorm chances will diminish by Thursday as the best
forcing moves out of central Indiana. After that, high pressure
will strengthen aloft keeping most of the forecast area dry
through Saturday night. The only exception will be a few
persistent showers and thunderstorms (mainly south and east) on
Friday afternoon due to a surface frontal boundary. Further out,
models lose consistency with the Euro trending dry and the GFS
trying to pull a low pressure system back into central Indiana
late in the extended period. Meanwhile, temperatures through the
period will remain above normal.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 28/0600Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1158 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout the period...with one
caveat. Dewpoint depressions are continuing to lessen with clearing
skies and with calm winds...the potential exists for a dip in
visibilities across the terminals. Some short-range model solutions
suggest visibilities could drop into the MVFR category around 08-
09Z. Did not include within this TAF cycle as some forecast
soundings do not depict this scenario occurring. However, did want
to mention here as future updates will keep an eye on the
possibility. Otherwise, winds will begin to pick back up during the
late morning Monday...generally from the east at up to 8-10 kts.





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