Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 180800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
400 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today-Monday)...
Upper ridging from the W Gulf northward into the Midwest
today to dampen out as shortwave moves through the Mid
Mississippi River valley Monday. Weak surface high pressure
in the W Atlantic ridges back over the S FL Peninsula today
then surface storm system develops and move through the
southern states Monday. Low level flow veers S-SW with
warming temps and increasing dewpoints/humidity today-Monday.
Rain chances increase over northern Nature Coast late
tonight and Monday closer to better upper support and TN
surface low. Patchy dense field fog is developing early this
morning in typical fog prone areas and should burn off and
mix out by mid morning. Expect additional fog redevelopment
again tonight.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
A shortwave trough will move east through the Mid-Atlantic
region Monday night, supporting a broad surface low over the
southeastern US that will drag a cold front into northern
Florida. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible
south of this front Monday night, mainly over the Nature
Coast and adjacent Gulf waters. A much stronger shortwave
will dig into the southeastern states and northern Gulf on
Tuesday, supporting a stronger cold front push into the
Florida Peninsula. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front and
spread south through west central and southwest Florida
Tuesday and Tuesday night. With strong wind shear and cool
mid level temperatures ahead of the front, there is
potential for a few strong thunderstorms on Tuesday. The one
limiting factor for thunderstorms will be the cool shelf
waters, which should somewhat weaken the convection as it
approaches west central and southwest Florida.

Tuesday night and Wednesday, breezy winds behind the front will
produce strong cold air advection, bringing in a much cooler and
drier airmass. Temperatures will run several degrees below normal
Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s, and
morning lows generally in the 40s and low 50s. As high pressure
shifts into Florida from the Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday,
cold air advection will end, allowing temperatures to moderate under
continued sunny skies.


Shallow field fog at usual sites this morning to produce locally
IFR/LIFR cigs/vsby through about 14Z. VRF conditions expected
to return areawide by or after 14Z.


Weak high pressure to move further into the W Atlantic today
into Monday as winds turn southerly. Southern storm system to
develop Monday and move through the E Gulf Tuesday with strong
SW winds and elevated seas along with showers and storms for
hazardous marine conditions. Strong high pressure and breezy
NW-N winds and choppy seas Wednesday into Thursday to keep
SCA conditions over the waters.


Low level moisture has increased and will remain above
critical levels today and Monday. Good rain chances Tuesday
ahead of cold front. Very dry and cool high pressure to
build into the region Wed-Fri.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  79  65  79  69 /   0  10  20  30
FMY  82  65  82  69 /   0  10  10  10
GIF  84  62  85  68 /   0   0  20  20
SRQ  75  64  76  69 /   0  10  10  20
BKV  80  61  81  68 /   0  10  30  40
SPG  79  65  78  68 /   0  10  20  20


Gulf waters...None.


MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/Fleming is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.