Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 200625

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

Throughout the day, a long-wave trough located along the West Coast
will gradually amplify, resulting in a broad area of 20-30 knot
mid-level southerly flow from Arizona northward through the Great
Basin.  Meanwhile, a weak low/surface trough will remain nearly
stationary across the Lower Colorado River Valley, promoting a
modest surface gradient across dry areas of the Four Corners and
vicinity.  The net result of this pattern will be elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions - particularly from
Arizona/eastern New Mexico northward toward far southwestern

...A broad part of the Southwest and Southern Rockies...
The aforementioned pattern will result in breezy conditions, with
broad areas of ~15 mph southerly flow across the region.
Additionally, a dry airmass will remain in place across the region,
and as surface temperatures rise through the 70s and 80s F, RH
values will fall below critical thresholds areawide - with single
digit RH values possible across eastern Arizona.  The presence of
dry fuels, ongoing drought, and a few large fires across the region
all support elevated fire weather conditions, and an attendant
delineation remains in place.  Furthermore, locally/briefly critical
fire weather conditions will occur where wind speeds can exceed 20
mph.  This is most likely to occur from near the White Mountains
northward into far southwestern Colorado.

..Cook.. 05/20/2018

...Please see for graphic product...

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