463
FNUS21 KWNS 041650
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024

Valid 041700Z - 051200Z

No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across portions of north-central
New Mexico this afternoon/evening as forcing for ascent associated
with a mid-level trough moves across the area. Dry low-level air and
modest precipitable water values may result in narrow precipitation
cores and the potential for lightning strikes outside areas
receiving appreciable precipitation. However, confidence in this
conditional scenario is too low to warrant an unconditional dry
thunderstorm area

..Marsh.. 05/04/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1227 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024/

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will be moving northeast through the
central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest today. In the
Southwest, a low-amplitude shortwave will pass by to the south. At
the surface, a cold front will move southward into the southern High
Plains and push cooler air against the southern Rockies.

...Southwest...
Areas of dry and breezy conditions are probable for parts of the
region. Perhaps an area where winds will be enhanced is in the
southwest New Mexico vicinity. There, modestly stronger mid-level
winds will be present along with some surface pressure gradient
enhancement near the westward-moving cold front. Though relatively
confined, elevated fire weather conditions are possible during the
afternoon. Wind of around 15-20 mph and RH of 10-20% are expected.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$