Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
FNUS22 KWNS 231757

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


The ongoing critical area has been focused primarily over lower
elevations of New Mexico, where fuels are likely to be more
receptive to rapid fire spread. RH values will likely be closer to
critical thresholds here as well. Additionally, the surrounding
elevated area has been expanded to include more of the lower
elevations of central New Mexico, to account for the aforementioned
distribution of fuels and favorably breezy/dry conditions.

..Picca.. 03/23/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

An upper trough/low will progress from the eastern Pacific to the
West Coast on Day 2/Saturday as a southern-stream shortwave trough
moves from northern Mexico to the Southwest and southern High
Plains. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds will persist over
much of the Southwest and central/southern High Plains through the
period, with a 50-70 kt jet at 500 mb overspreading parts of
southern AZ/NM by Saturday afternoon. A surface low initially over
MO is forecast to weaken through the day as a cold front stalls over
the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis should occur across parts
of the southern/central High Plains through Saturday evening.

...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern/Central High
Beneath the mid-level jet described above, strong/gusty
southwesterly surface winds will occur from parts of southeastern AZ
into southern/central NM Saturday afternoon. Sustained winds of
20-30 mph appear likely, with some higher gusts to 40 mph possible.
There are some indications that a modest increase in low-level
moisture and mid-level cloudiness may tend to limit the degree of
lowered RH values across this region. Therefore, the critical
delineation has been confined to locations across southeastern AZ
and southern/central NM where confidence is relatively greater that
RH values will become critically lowered, generally into the 10-15%

Farther east across the southern/central High Plains, elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions are expected. Here,
sustained southerly to southwesterly winds of 15-20 mph should be
common in conjunction with RH values of 10-20%. The overlap of
sub-15% RH values with sustained winds in excess of 20 mph appears
too limited to justify a critical area across any portion of the
High Plains at this time.

...Please see for graphic product...

$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.