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000
AGNT40 KWNM 251948
MIMATN

Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
348 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

12z model guidance in decent agreement through the forecast
period, with only a few minor differences. For the wind grids,
will lean towards the 12z GFS until 12z Sun, then switch towards
the 12z ECMWF thereafter.

Models in good agreement with moving a cold front offshore Sat
and Sat, and stalling the front near the NT1 and NT2 border Sun.
Models also agree in developing a weak frontal wave along the
front Late Sun, and moving it east across the area Sun night into
Mon. Minor differences are noted in the position of the front and
the track of the low. GFS a bit further south with the front than
ECMWF/UKMET. Prefer ECMWF/UKMET solution as it has the front
closer to the border of the NT1 and NT2 waters, with
predominately easterly flow in the NT1 waters and westerly flow
in the NT2 waters.

Both GFS and the ECMWF continue to have a surface low move across
the central NT2 waters Tue and Tue night, possibly developing along
the tail end of a weakening frontal boundary. A little
suspicious as to this wave development, as both the UKMET and the
CMC do not show this, but will continue to show a low in the
forecast as both the GFS and ECMWF continue this trend.. Will
lean towards the ECMWF solution for this system, but will lower
winds a tad as it moves across the area.

Otherwise, high pressure builds across the region Wed and Wed
night.


.SEAS...12z Wave guidance within a foot or two of current
observations. For the wave grids, will lean towards the 12z WNA
until 12z Sun, then switch towards the 12z ECMWFWave thereafter,
with a few minor adjustments.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.NT1 New England Waters...
     None.

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
     None.

$$

.Forecaster Achorn. Ocean Prediction Center.


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