990
FXUS01 KWBC 131944
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 14 2025 - 00Z Wed Jul 16 2025

...Heavy rain/flash flooding threat over the Mid-Atlantic and
Upper Midwest...

..Heat remains over much of the eastern and western U.S....

...Increasing heavy rainfall and flash flood threat for Florida
Monday-Tuesday...

A slowly-moving front draped from the eastern Great Lakes back to
the southern Plains will help instigate widespread showers and
thunderstorms over the next couple of days along and south/east of
the boundary. In addition, high humidity levels will support
locally heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding nearly
anywhere in this area, especially in urban areas and where it has
been recently wet. Ongoing rainfall over areas of New
York/Mid-Atlantic, the middle Mississippi Valley, and eastern
Texas will cause a threat of flash flooding this evening before
winding down overnight. By tomorrow, the I-95 urban corridor from
the New York metro area southward through Philly/DC into Richmond
will again see another chance of showers/storms with the potential
for flash flooding. Temperatures will be very warm/hot (near and
several degrees above normal) and heat index values will be
modestly high, yielding HeatRisk values to be in the Moderate
(Level 2 of 4) category in the Midwest/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic and
into the Major category (Level 3 of 4) over parts of the Southeast
tomorrow. Rainfall will cool temperatures a bit but raise humidity
levels. By Tuesday, the expanse of rainfall will decrease as the
front starts to dissipate, but the Mid-Atlantic will still see a
chance for localized flash flooding.

For much of the interior West, temperatures will remain hot on
Monday (well into the 90s/100s) with HeatRisk values in the
Moderate to Major categories. Heat advisories and Extreme Heat
Warnings are in effect again on Monday for places like Las Vegas
all the way into NorCal and southwestern Oregon. The immediate
California coast will remain cool with temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s. For the Four Corners region, monsoonal moisture will
increase this week and showers may be more widespread, thought
still on the lighter side, across the region. Temperatures will
ease back from the higher levels by midweek.

Across the northern tier, a wavy frontal boundary will slowly sink
southeastward with an increase in rainfall over the region. There
is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall on Monday along the
Canadian border and a Slight Risk on Tuesday (northern Plains to
the Upper Midwest). Behind the cold front over Montana, high
pressure will bring in much cooler air to the state. High
temperatures will drop from the 70s/80s on Monday to the 50s/60s
on Tuesday (15-20 degrees below normal).

Finally, over Florida, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring
an area off the Southeast coast for potential development. This
feature will move across the Peninsula over the next two days and
bring with it an increasing chance of heavy rainfall. A Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall is noted for both Monday and Tuesday.
Sensitive areas and urban areas along and south of I-4 will be
most vulnerable.

Fracasso


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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