361
FXAK68 PAFC 111438
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
538 AM AKST Wed Feb 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday evening)...

The surface front and upper-level shortwave that brought
widespread snow to much of Southcentral yesterday are quickly
racing across the Copper River Basin this morning, with snow
tapering off and becoming more showery in nature from the central
Chugach Mountains northward. Two shortwaves embedded in the
southwesterly flow in the wake of these first features are moving
quickly across the Southern Mainland this morning.

The first of these is already lifting across the Kenai Peninsula
this morning, resulting in increased instability due to cold air
advection aloft and snow showers stretching from the western
Alaska Range to Middleton Island. Some of these snow bands have
been moderate to heavy in intensity, with snowfall rates up to
one inch per hour. The challenge today will be pinning down the
exact track of these showers. Nonetheless, areas along the Western
Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the Mat-Su valleys will likely
receive additional snow.

Snow showers will likely persist into the afternoon as a second
shortwave over Bristol Bay this morning moves east and enhances
shower activity. The upper-level flow will shift with this
feature, becoming a bit more southerly. This may allow any
showers along the southern Kenai Peninsula with the first system
to be drawn back up across Cook Inlet with the second.

The second shortwave will stall in its eastward progress later
today, then pivot back to the west as potent upper-level low lifts
into the eastern Gulf from the North Pacific. The retrograding
shortwave moving back over the Kenai Peninsula may result in snow
showers lingering across Cook Inlet and western Prince William
Sound into Thursday morning before tapering off as the wave
weakens.

Expect quieter conditions across Southcentral for Thursday and
Friday as the next Gulf low looks to track the eastern Gulf and
Southeast Alaska. The only thing will be that gap winds through
the favored terrain and passes will increase Thursday and Friday
as pressure gradients tighten between the eastern Gulf low and
higher pressure inland.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Conditions have started improving across Southwest Alaska, thus,
the Winter Weather Advisories and Blizzard Warnings have come to
an end. Gusty winds and lighter snow showers are expected to
continue through this morning behind the front, which may result
in reduced visibilities at times, but the worst conditions are
expected to have finished. Expect gusty winds and snow showers to
gradually taper off into this afternoon.

The large low continues rotating in the Bering Sea, currently
visible on satellite situated north of Saint Paul. This low will
continue to creep to the northwest and towards Nunivak Island,
before weakening and moving towards Bristol Bay Friday. Associated
warmer air will filter into Southwest Alaska, brining temperatures
up into the 20`s and 30`s, though mostly remaining below freezing.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The persistent upper level ridge looks to remain anchored in the
Pacific with several shortwaves rounding the top of the ridge axis
for this weekend. A low pressure system and its accompanying
front enter the eastern Bering by Saturday before pushing inland
across Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula. The main threat
with this system at this time looks to be the potential for
moderate to heavy snowfall across much of Southwest Alaska and
rainfall across the Alaska Peninsula. Only slight weakening of
this system is set to occur as the shortwave further deepens as it
tracks across the AKPen before the surface low repositions itself
and consolidates in the northern Gulf for Sunday. This brings
increased chances for snowfall across Southcentral Sunday with
models in fairly good agreement for inland locations to see a
round of measurable snow. Gusty northwesterly gap winds are
likely along the southern AKPen up through the Barren Islands
Sunday into Monday as the pressure gradient tightens between the
departing low and a ridge building in the Bering. The low
continues towards Southeast Alaska by early next week while the
Bering ridge slides east to promote mainly dry conditions across
Southern Alaska early next week.

Uncertainty and model spread increases heading into early next
week as upstream activity in the western Bering picks up.
Deterministic models continue to struggle with the positioning and
phasing of several shortwaves rotating around broad upper level
troughing centered over Kamchatka. A series of lows pressure
systems and fronts will bring an unsettled pattern with periods
of precipitation and elevated winds across the Aleutian Chain
through early next week, though exact timing and details will
become more clear in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR to IFR conditions expected until the afternoon, then
VFR conditions will prevail. Snow showers are expected to continue
to move through the region through the morning hours, clearing
out by the afternoon. Wind speeds will shift southeasterly by the
late morning, but will remain light. Low stratus and fog may
develop tonight, potentially dropping conditions to IFR at times.

&&


$$