Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 282117
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.Synopsis...We are moving into a very quiet and slightly cooler
period across the forecast area. Temperatures in the Arctic
falling into the 20s to 40s below, while the West Coast and
Interior will see temperatures in the from 5 below to 30 below
Sunday, then a little warmer Monday. Temperatures will rise nicely
during the day with mostly clear skies across the area. Winds will
be picking up on the Northwest Arctic Coast, West Coast, across
the Brooks Range, and around Delta Junction Monday. Potential for
ground blizzard on the Northwest Arctic Coast as winds increase
Tuesday so will keep a close watch on it.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 28/12Z set of solutions is very agreeable today for
the short term. The diverge starting around 72 hours on the
handling of a low moving west over the Gulf of Alaska. Solutions
are handling the increasing winds on the West Coast, in the
Arctic, and around Delta Junction well, so will use a blend, but
will be leaning on the HIRESarw solutions as it captures the
stronger winds well in the short term. Not much precipitation to
talk about until Tuesday, and even then just some shower on the
West Coast. Next significant precipitation will be moving up the
West Coast Wednesday, then east across the state Thursday and
Friday.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A trough associated with a 486 dam low over
Prince of Wales Island in the Canadian Archipelago lies over the
Yukon Territory to a 514 dam low over the Copper River Basin to a
515 dam low over the Gulf of Alaska. Thr trough will continue to
swing southeast to lie over Yakutat, then south to a 511 dam
low 300 nm south of Yakutat. A weak trough will persist south of
the Alaska Range. Ridging that was over Siberia west of the Gulf
of Anadyr has moved to the Dateline and extends north to the high
Arctic, and west over the Arctic Coast. Ridge will continue to
slide east to the Bering Strait extending north over the Arctic,
and West over the Brooks Range by Sunday afternoon. Troughing will
persist over the Gulf of Alaska Coast and Northern Bristol Bay. By
Monday afternoon the ridge will lie from Cold Bay to Nuiqsut and
north with a 545 dam cutoff high over Nuiqsut. The high moves to
MacKenzie Bay by Tuesday morning with the ridge axis extending
south over Kodiak Island as a longwave trough moves over the
Western Arctic and West Coast. At 850 hpa...-10C isotherm is south
and west of the forecast area this afternoon and the -20C isotherm
lies over the Eastern Brooks Range then north from Cantwell to
Deadhorse. Temperatures will generally be slowly warming as the
the low over the state moves southeast and high pressure to the
west moves to the Bering Strait. By Sunday afternoon the -20C
isotherm will be over the Upper Tanana Valley then northeast from
Delta Junction to MacKenzie Bay, while the -10C isotherm will be
over the Western Interior extending north over Utqiagvik.
Temperatures will continue to slowly warm through the week.

Surface...A low that was over the southwest mainland has moved to
the Gulf of Alaska at 993 mb and will continue to move southeast.
High pressure has moved to the northwest Arctic with a 1034 mb
high 100 nm northwest of Wainwright, and a 1032 mb high has moved
over the Chukotsk Peninsula near the Gulf of Anadyr. High pressure
will continue to build over the state as the low moves southeast
and by Sunday afternoon high pressure will extend west from a 1038
mb high near the Yukon/Northwest Territories Border across the
Upper Yukon Flats to a 1038 mb high near Ambler, then southwest to
a 1025 mb high near Nunivak Island. A 1030 mb low will develop in
leeside troughing north of the Brooks Range with a tight pressure
gradient developing across the Eastern Brooks Range producing
gusty south winds near passes. The pressure gradient will also
tighten across the Eastern Alaska Range with strong north winds
developing near passes. The high pressure will persist in
generally the same area through Monday.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Winds continue to blow around
Kaktovik, but will be settling down with improving conditions
this evening. Wind chill will continue to be a problem so see
advisories for zones 201 and 204 for specifics. Strong gusty
south winds developing in Eastern Brooks Range passes Sunday
night may create some travel problems. Temperatures will be
warming slowly starting Sunday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Pretty nice for the moment in
most areas. Strong north winds in the Norton Sound Region and
Bering Strait Coast will be settling down this evening. Winds will
start increasing on the capes Monday as low pressure pushes east.
Temperatures warming slowly.

Central and Eastern Interior...Another cold night, but mostly
clear. Warming temperatures starting Sunday. Some gusty winds
north of Fairbanks so have issued a Special Weather Statement for
drifting snow and wind chill along the highways and on summits.
The Tanana Valley Jet is kicking along today and winds gusting to
30 mph extend from west of Dot Lake just east of Tanana. North
winds will be picking up in the Eastern Alaska Range Passes so
expect some blowing snow and gusts to 55 mph and visibility less
than one half mile at times.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A weather system will move up
the West Coast bringing a mix of precipitation to the area
Wednesday, then moves northeast across the state Thursday and
Friday as it weakens and dissipates near the AlCan. Another system
will move into the Bering Sea by Friday evening, but models
diverge on when it will make it to the coast at this time.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ226.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

$$

SDB MAR 20


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