131
FXAK69 PAFG 092311
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
311 PM AKDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
It was a bit chilly over Northern Alaska this morning! There is
another chance for frost tonight, though it is mostly possible in
the Northern Interior and typical cold valleys like Goldstream.
Otherwise, a warming trend is expected from Wednesday through the
weekend across Northern Alaska, including the North Slope.
Tranquil weather is expected from the Brooks Range northward as
well as the West Coast through Thursday with showers returning
Thursday night and Friday. In the Interior, isolated thunderstorms
will develop Thursday afternoon with temperatures in the 70s. More
robust thunderstorms are expected on Friday with the potential for
the most thunderstorms so far this year.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Drying and warming trend through the end of the week with highs
  in the 60s/70s and RHs dropping to around 20-25%. Warmest and
  driest in the valleys.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms develop Thursday afternoon
  over the AK Range and from Minchumina to Bettles, with a couple
  of showers east of there.

- More robust thunderstorms expected on Friday with a chance
  across the entire Interior Friday afternoon/evening.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Tranquil and cool weather today, a warming trend begins tomorrow
  in the Interior with highs in the 60s/70s. A warming trend lags
  until Friday on the coast with highs in the 40s/low 50s through
  Thursday, then 50s/60s on Friday.

- Mostly dry weather through the week, but isolated showers and
  thunderstorms develop Thursday afternoon mostly east of the
  Yukon River.

- Another round of thunderstorms expected again on Friday, mostly
  east of the Yukon River again.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Chilly weather today with a warming trend beginning tomorrow.
  Highs near 40 along the coast and 50s/60s in the Brooks Range
  through the weekend.

- Mostly dry conditions, but isolated rain/snow showers return to
  the NW Arctic Coast by Thursday night then spread east on
  Friday. Many locations remain dry.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A potent 505 decameter Arctic low is loosening its grip on
Northern Alaska as it drifts northeast through Wednesday. This
allows a weak ridge to take hold beginning on Wednesday. This
ridge will allow warmer 850mb temperatures to intrude in the
Interior and North Slope, promoting warmer and drier conditions
overall. Current 850mb temps are currently about 0C to -4C in the
Interior and -5C to -10C on the North Slope. These will rise
nearly 10C to 15C across Northern Alaska allowing for surface
temperatures to rise by 15F to 25F by Thursday and Friday. With
heat comes thunderstorms and we do expect an uptick in storms
Thursday and Friday afternoons. The latest 12Z ECMWF brought a
very different outcome, however. Models have been generally
consistent on bringing a shortwave trough over the Central and
Eastern Interior during peak heating on Friday, bringing an active
thunderstorm day. However, the latest 12Z ECMWF brought the
trough through the Interior much quicker, which puts a cap on any
afternoon convection. The 12Z CMC, GFS and UKMET still bring this
trough to the Interior during peak heating which results in quite
a bit of thunderstorm activity. We are still holding steady and
expecting thunderstorms on Friday, but it is an interesting
development from the ECMWF that cannot be ignored because it would
lower our temperatures and limit convection. Nonetheless,
temperatures in the Interior after this trough on Friday should
return to near normal values this weekend. It will also be much
drier given the lack of instability after the trough moves
through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A drying trend begins today with the warming trend following
tomorrow. RHs across the Interior will be around 25 to 35% with
the lowest expected in the Yukon Flats and Western Interior. RHs
remain low tomorrow through Friday, as low as 20% in the valleys
across the Interior. Temperatures enter a warming trend on
Wednesday with highs across the area reaching the 60s and 70s with
mostly 70s by Thursday and Friday. Thunderstorm chances return on
Thursday, especially in the Western Interior towards the Western
Alaska Range. By Friday, there is a chance this is the largest
thunderstorm day of the year so far but there is still some
uncertainty with a trough moving through the Interior, acting as
the forcing mechanism. If this trough moves quicker, there will be
less thunderstorms, if it is slower there will be more. Right now
we will err on the side of caution with a slower trough, meaning
more thunderstorms. This will be monitored closely.

Otherwise, dry and warm weather returns this weekend with a strong
chinook possible allowing for near Red Flag conditions in Isabel
Pass/Delta Junction.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Satellite imagery indicates the Sag River has broken up close to
the mouth with no updates on the Kuparuk given the lack of clear
satellite imagery. The Colville has broken up near Nuiqsut and
potentially farther downstream but there are 2 ice jams at
Horseshoe Bend and Ocean Point. Even with the ice jams, water has
remained relatively low.

Heading into the end of the week, we`ll see temperatures rise into
the 50s/60s in the Brooks Range and 40s/50s on the North Slope.
Low temperatures will be above freezing later this week with the
Brooks Range only dropping into the 40s while the North Slope
remains in the mid 30s. The increase in temperatures along with
the recent snowfall may result in rapid river rises by this
weekend but there is high uncertainty in any potential flooding
impacts.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Saturday through Tuesday

This Saturday high pressure system will situate itself over
Alaska with two low pressure systems to the north and south. As we
move forward into Sunday the southern low will dig into the ridge
weakening it through the end of the weekend, resulting in the
eastern portion of the state remaining under a stationary ridge,
bringing warm and dry weather to the area. A low resting near SW
Alaska allows for more wet, cloudy and marginally cooler weather.
This pattern should remain consistent for a short while as it
swiftly moves starting on Monday, with the high pressure moving
towards the North Slope and the low pressure settling near
southern Alaska. This pattern should result in dry and warm
weather throughout northern and eastern Alaska with cooler and
wetter weather in western Alaska.

On Saturday we expect the ridge to drive warmer high
temperatures, reaching between 70-80 degrees. From Sunday to
Monday it is likely to see temperatures in the Eastern Interior
remain in the 70-80s and the Western Interior dip to the 60s-70s.
By Tuesday the low pressure system will have a larger influence
resulting in cooler temperatures across most of Northern Alaska.

Winds will be most impactful Sunday evening. As a low pressure
system drives wind gusts up to about 50 mph through the Alaska
Range which begins to drop off Monday morning. Around the same
time, wind gusts are likely to increase along the eastern Arctic
Coast to about 30 mph. Just north of the Alaska Range, the minimum
relative humidity ranges between 20-40% on Saturday with a steady
increase into Tuesday. With the wind gusts reaching 50 mph at the
Alaska Range, and the trend of the lower relative humidity
values, fire weather is a concern during the beginning portion of
this weekend.

As for precipitation, we are expecting a drier start to the
weekend, with signals for heavier precipitation possible next week
as a low moves into the Gulf of Alaska. As the low approaches the
vicinity of the Alaska Peninsula, moisture may wrap around the
east side bringing higher chances for more widespread rain for
portions of Northern Alaska.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
&&

$$

Bianco
Donner - Extended