Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 231404

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
604 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2019



Longwave trough is currently in place along the West Coast from
the Chukchi Sea and southeast to Kodiak Island, with a ridge over
the Central Interior this morning. The ridge is expected to
strengthen into the weekend and build over the northwest coast of
Alaska. Models have come into better agreement of an easterly
track for the shortwave trough over the Chukchi Sea and moving
over the North Slope and to the Canadian border by Saturday
morning. The ridge will dominate over the Interior and West Coast
of Alaska through most of the weekend ahead of the next longwave
trough pushing northeast into Bristol Bay by Saturday evening.

Thermal trough setting up across most of the Interior today along
the Tanana Valley and as far north as Fort Yukon. This area of
low pressure will move north to Arctic Village by late tonight and
over the Brooks Range into the Beaufort Sea by Friday morning. A
decaying low pressure system located southeast of Kodiak Island
is bringing a weather front with light rain along the West Coast
this morning. This front is expected to weaken and dissipate this
afternoon. High pressure builds into the Bering Strait this
afternoon and onto the western portions of the North Slope by
Friday morning.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
The upper level low over the Chukchi Sea will move east along the
North Slope bringing chances for precipitation from Point Lay to
Utqiagvik beginning late this evening and lasting until Friday
afternoon. A mix of rain and snow this evening and changing to all
snow overnight will be the expected precipitation type for this
time period. Less than an inch of snow accumulation is expected. A
developing surface low pressure north of Barter Island is
expected to deepen on Friday, with a weather front bringing
chances for rain in the Brooks Range and rain and snow at Barter
Island until early Saturday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A weak front is situated along the West Coast bringing light rain
this morning. This front is expected to dissipate throughout
today. High pressure builds into the Bering Strait and into the
Western Interior beginning this afternoon. Skies expected to clear
into the weekend along the West Coast. A strong surface low
pressure from the south will be the next chance for precipitation
Saturday evening. Details of timing and location are to be
determined as the model spread is large by Saturday morning.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Thermal trough setting up along the Tanana Valley today. Isolated
thunderstorms expected in the hills north of Fairbanks, with
scattered thunderstorms in the Yukon Flats and north to Arctic
Village. Frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty winds are
expected with these storms as the instability parameters indicate
good support for thunderstorm development and maintenance. The
thermal trough setup will be further north for Friday, with best
chances for thunderstorm development east of Fort Yukon and Arctic
Village. Chinook winds through the Alaska Range expected to
develop Saturday afternoon with the approaching trough setting up
in the Bristol Bay area.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


A thermal low pressure trough will be centered over
Eagle today. This trough will move north and over the Brooks Range
by Friday afternoon. Scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will occur along this trough from Eagle north to
Arctic Village today. Thunderstorms for Friday will be isolated
and confined along the Canadian Border east of Arctic Village and
Fort Yukon.

Minimum RH expected to remain above 25 percent until Saturday,
with the exception of Eagle and surrounding areas. Light and variable
wind conditions expected for today. Winds will increase for the
Eastern Interior as the low pressure moves north late tonight. Chinook
winds expected along the Alaska Range Saturday night and Sunday,
so drier conditions in the Tanana Valley expected for Sunday.


Freezing levels ranging from 5000 feet along the West Coast to
8000 feet along the Alcan Border will remain at these levels
through the weekend. This will keep snow melt going in mountains,
and should see continued rise of rivers draining the Brooks Range
which are already high. Expect the minor flooding on the Koyukuk
River at Allakaket to get worse over the next several days, and
water levels on the Koyukuk River downstream at Hughes and Huslia
will be rising as well. Flooding on the Koyukuk River at Allakaket
expected to worsen through early Saturday. Expect high water
downstream at Hughes by this weekend, and at Huslia by the end of
the weekend and into early next week.

Rivers draining in the Alaska Range will continue to rise, but
since they are at low levels now, should see no problems there.





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