Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 072143
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
143 PM AKDT Fri May 7 2021

SYNOPSIS...Some showers and possibly a thunderstorms this evening
in the Interior, then clearing tonight and Saturday. Winter
Weather Advisory continues for the Eastern Arctic Coast with near
Blizzard conditions, but improving weather Saturday in the Arctic.
There will still be stratus and fog issues, but winds will be
diminishing to 10 to 20 mph. The West Coast will remain quiet, but
some rain showers are possible in the Lower Yukon Delta Saturday
as a decaying weather front moves into the area and dissipates.

.DISCUSSION...

Models...07/12Z Solutions are in good agreement through the
midrange as are surface solutions which initialized well against
the 07/15Z surface analysis. Solutions area showing a good
bullseye of Lifted Index from +1 to -2, and non zero CAPE values
this afternoon and evening, then more stable conditions through
the weekend as ridging builds aloft. Will be using a general blend
of the solutions for all elements with the exception of
temperatures where only minor adjustments will be made to the
current database.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging to the north has moved over the
Eastern Arctic Coast with a 547 dam high near Wrangel Island.
Troughing is pushing east across the state with a 540 dam low
moving north over the Central Interior this evening, and a 537 dam
low over the Lower Yukon Delta. A 524 dam low has moves to 100 nm
south of Nikolski this afternoon, while ridging is pushing west
over the Gulf of Alaska and the southwest mainland. By Saturday
afternoon ridging will be pushing west between the ranges with the
axis over Chicken to Galena to Savoonga, while troughing will
move over the Gulf of Alaska and the Eastern Aleutians as 528 dam
low moves over Nikolski and a 545 dam low moves over the Central
Gulf of Alaska. Weakening troughing will be over the northwest
Interior and Western Brooks Range with a col over the Arctic
Plain. and the Ridging that was over the Arctic Coast will be
holding on over the Northwest Arctic Coast as the 548 dam high
moves to 250 nm northeast of Wrangel Island. Sunday afternoon
ridging will persist over the state as a 554 dam high develops
over Eagle and moves over Fairbanks and the ridging over the
Northwest Arctic merges with the ridge. Troughing will remain over
the Eastern Aleutians and Bering Sea with a 528 dam low just
north of Nikolski. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm is pushing northwest
into the Interior south of the Yukon River and will persist in the
area through the weekend with the dome of warmer air over the
southeast Interior. Temperatures over the remainder of the area
will be in the 0C to -5C range on the west coast and -3c to -8C in
the Arctic.

Surface...Northeasterly to easterly flow across the state with a
1030 mb high in the central Beaufort Sea, and low pressure to the
south with a 1004 mb low in the Upper Tanana Valley, a 1006 mb low
in the Middle Tanana Valley, a 990 mb low near Sand Point, and a
991 mb low 200 nm south of Nikolski. High pressure has pushed
northwest over the Gulf of Alaska and will continue to build north
into the Copper River Basin tonight, and into the Middle Tanana
Valley Saturday. The troughing north of the Alaska Range will
persist, but weaken at times through the weekend.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Winter Weather Advisory remains
in effect for the Eastern Arctic Coast with near Blizzard
conditions this evening. Conditions will be improving overnight
and Saturday morning. Cloudy conditions will prevail through the
weekend with areas of fog mainly near the open leads in the ice.
Winds northeast to east at 15 to 30 mph will be diminishing to 10
to 20 mph by Saturday evening.

West Coast and Western Interior...Quiet through most of the
weekend with offshore flow prevailing with partly cloudy skies. A
front will move through the Lower Yukon Delta Saturday and may
kick off a few showers, but no significant rainfall expected.
Winds generally northeast to east at 5 to 15 mph with some gusts
to 25 mph along the coast. High temperatures in the upper 30s to
low 50s, while lows will be 20s and 30s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Rain showers this evening with a
slight chance of a thunderstorm. Clearing Saturday. East to
southeast winds to 10 mph through the weekend. The weekend looks
pretty nice as high temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with
lows in the 30s to around 40.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Some Isolated thunderstorms
and scattered showers during the afternoons and evenings as we
move into the a seasonal convection pattern in Interior Alaska. No
significant change in temperatures. The Arctic will generally be
cloudy with periods of fog and flurries and an occasional sunny
break. For the West Coast some showers possible inland and in the
Lower Yukon Delta, but generally offshore flow will be bringing
slightly warmer temperatures to the area and partly cloudy skies.

&&

.Fire Weather...Some wetting rains possible this evening, mainly
east and northeast of Fairbanks. Isolated Thunderstorms are also
possible in the same area. Clearing tonight and Saturday will
continue into Monday. Winds generally variable to 10 mph during
the day, and light drainage winds overnight. Temperatures in the
50s and lower 60s through the weekend with Relative Humidity
values in the 20 to 40 percent range with good overnight recovery.
A seasonal pattern developing next week with afternoon showers
and thunderstorms around the thermal trough in the Interior.

&&

.Hydrology...The ice in Dawson YT went out yesterday, but the ice
jammed up downstream near the AlCan, due to this a Flood Watch
was issued for Eagle and vicinity and will remain in effect
through at least Saturday. The ice at Eagle is still holding as it
continues to weaken, and downstream to Fort Yukon there are lots
of open leads and areas of broken up ice. Fort Yukon to Rampart
canyon remains mostly solid ice with open leads. Ice in Rampart
Canyon remains firmly in place. South to Ruby the ice is breaking
up and at the confluence with the Tanana the river went out, but
more ice coming down the Tanana has stopped in front of Tanana.
Downstream from the Tanana River the ice is starting to lift but
no movement yet. The Koyukuk River observer in Bettles thinks the
river will be going out soon, possibly tonight, but downstream
from Bettles the ice has lifted but remains in place. Ice also
remains solid and but has lifted on the Porcupine with no signs of
movement. The ice continues to darken and rot in place. Waterways
continue to run low and are expected to continue to run low into
next week. As breakup continues things can change rapidly so go to
www.weather.gov/fairbanks or www.weather.gov/aprfc for the latest
Warnings, Advisories, and forecasts.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch for AKZ224.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

$$

SDB MAY 21


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