Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 191350
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
550 AM AKDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A northward moving front will bring rain to the West Coast and
Western Interior today. Strong downslope winds are expected to
develop late today in the Alaska Range continuing into tonight.
These issues will be the main forecast that we will have to deal
with today. The 00Z models initialized fairly well compared to the
analysis and are in good agreement with the overall synoptic
pattern out through Tuesday.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a ridge currently extends along a Yakutat to
Gambell axis. The west side of this ridge will be pushed northward
today by a shortwave. This will set up southerly flow over the
Interior by tonight, continuing into Monday. By Monday morning the
axis of the ridge will extend from Yakutat to Point Lay. The
ridge will be pushed east into the Yukon Territory as a 552 dam
low moves from the Gulf of Alaska into the southeastern Interior.
This low will move east into the Yukon Territory for Wednesday. A
550 dam low will dive south over the Arctic Ocean Tuesday and
will be near Utqiagvik early Wednesday morning. A 539 dam low
will push west into the central Bering Sea on Wednesday reaching
the west coast of Alaska on Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior: The main weather issue in the short
term for the Interior will be winds in the Alaska Range today
into Monday. Winds will ramp up as a front associated with a low
in the north Pacific passes over the Alaska Range this evening.
Winds will peak early Monday morning with gusts up to 50 mph
before decreasing during the daytime on Monday. A Wind Advisory
was issued for zones 223 and 226 by the day shift on Saturday in
anticipation of the strong winds. As the aforementioned front
moves north it will bring increased cloud cover. Precipitation
should be limited outside of the Alaska Range due to downsloping;
however. A warming trend will continue in temperatures into
Monday for most of the Interior. A low will move into the
southeastern Interior on Tuesday bringing cooler temperatures and
rainfall. The low will also provide enough forcing for a few
thunderstorms in the southeastern Interior Tuesday afternoon. A
somewhat showery pattern looks to continue for the Interior
Wednesday into next weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior: A weather front will spread rain
north across the area today before reaching the western Brooks
Range tonight. Rainfall amounts with this system will be in the
quarter to half inch range for most areas. The bulk of the
rainfall will end by midnight for most areas. There will still be
scattered showers through Tuesday. A weak ridge looks to limit
showers for Wednesday; however, a wetter pattern returns for
Thursday (although the models differ on the exact details of this
right now).

North Slope and Brooks Range: Some gusty downslope winds are
currently being observed early this morning. Current expectation
is for the winds to die down fairly quickly this morning. A
northward moving front will spread rain showers into the Brooks
Range tonight across the North Slope tomorrow. A ridge of high
pressure will build south across the Beaufort Sea Coast tonight
likely bringing some issues with fog and lower ceilings to areas
along the coast east of Utqiagvik into the middle of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A warming trend is expected to continue today and Monday for much
of the central and eastern Interior. Strong gap winds are expected
for Alaska Range Passes today into early Monday. A weather front
will spread wetting rainfall over the West Coast and Western
Interior today. An area of low pressure will bring wetting
rainfall and cooler temperatures to the Central and Eastern
Interior on Tuesday, along with a few isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recent rainfall has caused rises in rivers draining the north side
of the Brooks Range (Such as the Kuparuk, Sagavanirktok and
Colville). Rivers are expected to run high into the middle of the
week; however, no flooding is anticipated at this point.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220.
&&

$$

AUG 18


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