Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 091856 CCA

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
956 AM AKST Sun Dec 9 2018

The long wave pattern consists of a ridge over western Canada and
eastern AK with a trough extending from the high arctic south
over the Bering Sea. A series of strong short wave troughs moving
northeast over mainland Alaska through the Tue will  cause
periods of snow and keep temperatures above normal, with the south
slopes of the Brooks Range getting the most snow due to upslope
conditions. These short wave troughs will dig into the ridge and
cause the long wave trough to slowly progress east over mainland
Alaska by mid week as a series of strong short wave troughs moving
north. This will cause temperatures to fall to near normal by
mid- week.

A short wave trough over the western Interior of AK will move east
of the Alcan Border this evening. Will see snow end and breaks in
the clouds west of this trough.

A strong low aloft over Eastern Norton sound will move to over
the southern Chukchi Sea tonight, to the Bering Strait Mon, and
over Norton Sound Tue. There are snow showers under this feature
that will taper off inland. These feature is vertically stacked
and the surface feature with it is addressed below.

Surface... A vertically stacked 980 mb over Eastern Norton Sound
will move to Shishmaref as a 984 mb low by Sun afternoon, to near
the Bering Strait as a 984 mb low by 3pm Mon, and over Norton
Sound as a 980 mb low by 3pm Tue. N winds of 40g50 mph and snow
showers with blowing snow are occuring over zone 213 in the NW
quadrant of this low. As the low moves north today, the winds
will decrease to N 30g40 mph over zone 213, but persist into Tue.
For this reason, have kept the high surf advisory out through Tue.
NE winds gusting to 45 mph near Point Hope will continue through
Tue as this low keep the gradient near Point Hope strong.

A Arctic Cold front that lies from Bettles to Isabell Pass will
move east of the Alcan Border this afternoon. There is moderate
snow along this feature, and can expect another 1-2 inches of snow
over the Eastern Interior. Areas of light snow will follow the
front with clouds decreasing tonight.

A 980 mb low over the Copper River Basin will move over the
Alaska Range just west of Isabell Pass by noon today, and then
move to near Eagle by 3pm today. This feature is pumping warm air
over the Southeast Interior and bring a chance of freezing rain to
the area southeast of Old Crow to Isabell Pass this morning.
This will also cause the Arctic Cold front to stall this morning,
before moving east this afternoon and cutting off the change of
freezing precip.

A strong low in the southeast Bering Sea will move into Bristol
Bay on Mon. A front associated with this will move north over the
southern Interior Mon, and then over the West Coast Mon night and
Tue. Expect a chance of snow with this feature, along with
increase winds over the INterior and Alaska Range.

A second front will move north over the southeast Interior Mon
Night and Tue and bring a chance of snow there.


Models verify well at surface at 06Z. Models initialize well
aloft and show similar solutions through 3pm Mon. After 3pm Mon
that time the GFS develops a much stronger low in the Gulf of AK
than the NAM of ECMF. Given the strong dynamics aloft combined
with the strong low low level cold advection over the Gulf on Mon
night into Tue, favor the GFS.

In the short term, the ECMF and GFS linger precip over Fairbanks
and the Eastern Interior today longer than the NAM. Given the
continued cold advection behind the Arctic cold front today,
favor the GFS with light snow lingering into the afternoon.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
High surf will continue zone 213 into Tue. The worst conditions
are now, and winds and surf will decline slightly this afternoon.
North winds 25g35 kt from the Bering Strait to Saint Lawrence
Island will continue through Tuesday.


High Surf Advisory for AKZ213.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ226.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230.


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