Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 012358
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
258 PM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A front associated with a low over the Bering Sea will continue to
push to the east across the Interior tonight bringing another
round of snowfall. Gusty winds along the Beaufort and Chukchi Sea
Coasts will bring dangerously cold wind chill values into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The models initialize well and are in good agreement out through
the short term. We leaned to the SREF with our PoP forecast to
to increase the PoPs for the Interior for tonight and for the west
coast on Thursday.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 493 dam low just southwest of St Matthew
Island will move into Bristol Bay by Tuesday morning. By Tuesday
evening, this low will be situated in the Gulf of Alaska with a
trough over much of the forecast area. Ridging will develop over
the West coast on Wednesday. This ridge will push to the east into
the Interior on Thursday as a trough moves east over the Bering
Sea.

At the surface a 969 mb low located west of Nunivak Island will
push into the Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday afternoon. A front
associated with this low will push east over the southern
Interior tonight. High pressure that is currently over eastern
Russia will start to move into Bering Sea Tuesday night and
Wednesday. A strong low will push east into the Gulf of Anadyr on
Thursday. A front associated with this low looks to move over St.
Lawrence Island Thursday morning and will reach the West Coast of
Alaska by Thursday afternoon.

Central and Eastern Interior...
A weather front will bring snow this evening, mainly to areas
along and south of the Yukon River. 1 to 3 inches of snow is
possible through Tuesday morning. Snow will taper off by Tuesday
morning. We are not anticipating any organized snowfall Tuesday;
however we kept some chance PoPs in the grids with the trough
overhead. At the moment we anticipate any snow that does fall
Tuesday will be light and little accumulation of snow is
expected. Another weak shortwave early Wednesday will increase
chances for another round of snow for the Central Interior,
primarily southwest of Fairbanks. This next round could bring 1 to
3 inches of snowfall to areas southwest of Fairbanks; however,
there is currently not a lot of agreement in the models on the
details of this system. Winds gusting to around 35 mph are
expected through this evening in the Delta Junction area as well
as over the higher terrain in the norther Interior. There is some
potential for gusty northerly gap winds to develop in the Alaska
Range on Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens up. Highs in
the short term will be in the single digits above and below zero,
with lows in the teens to 20s below.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Snowfall will continue this evening into Tuesday along and south
of the Yukon River as another shortwave pushes ashore late
tonight. Look for an additonal two to three inches of snowfall
through Tuesday afternoon. Gusty northerly winds will develop
tonight on the back side low that will push east tonight. Gusty
northerly winds will bring blowing snow to the coast along with
dangerously cold wind chill values. Gusty northerly winds will
continue into the day on Wednesday. The ongoing Wind Chill
Advisories look to be in good shape for tonight for coastal areas
north of the Bering Strait along with St. Lawrence Island.
Temperatures look to fall Tuesday night for coastal areas south of
the Bering Strait due to less cloud cover This will likely
result in the need for additional wind chill advisories. A front will
push through the Bering Sea on Thursday, reaching the west Coast
by Thursday afternoon. This front will bring strong southeasterly
winds accompanied by snow and blowing snow. There is still some
uncertainty with this system; however snowfall may be heavy at
times along the coast and there is the potential for blizzard
conditions to develop along the coast on Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Dangerously cold wind chill values will continue to be a problem
tonight. Portions of the Eastern Beaufort Coast will experience
wind chill values dipping into the 60s below, while other
locations along the Arctic Coast will experience wind chill values
in the 50s below along with areas near passes in the Brooks Range.
The ongoing wind chill products look to be in good shape. We also
added a Wind Chill Advisory for zone 206 (specifically for areas
near passes. Chances for snow increase for Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday as a shortwave rotates north over the area. Otherwise,
high pressure will build Wednesday across the region, which will
also kick start a warming trend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7...
The extended period begins on Thursday night with the front over
the west coast pushing east into the western and central Interior.
The front looks to die out as it pushes east, and will have to
contend with southerly flow over the Alaska Range. Another front
looks to reach the west coast late Saturday or Sunday; however the
details of this system are still up in the air at the moment. Look
for temperatures to moderate by late week into the weekend as
southerly flow aloft brings in a surge of warmer air that spreads
across most of Northern Alaska.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ208-
AKZ213-AKZ217.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ203-AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ214.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ245.
&&

$$

MAR 21


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