337
FXAK69 PAFG 140952
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1252 AM AKST Tue Jan 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic front has shifted east across the Northern Mainland,
thus ending the chinook winds and the very warm temps we
experienced this weekend and Monday. Temps gradually fall over
the entire Mainland through the remainder of the week. Light snow
showers will primarily impact the coastal region as well as
southeast Interior and Alaska Range, through Tue evening.
Thereafter, gradual drying and quieter weather will move in.
Thursday morning and Friday morning look to be the coldest as
valley temps over the Interior plummet back into the -20 F range.
However, this "cold snap" looks very short-lived as temps are
rising by the weekend again as more south winds move across the
Interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Weather Messages and Impacts:

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temps are on the downtrend through the day as arctic air filters
  in. Low temps plummet back into the subzero range tonight.

- Light snow showers will be possible across the Interior as a
  disturbance aloft moves over the region. Light accumulations of
  less than one inch, expect 1 to 3 inches over the SE Interior
  and E Alaska Range.

- Continued minor blowing snow possible over the Steese Hwy
  Summits with southwest to 30 mph through today..

- Cold high pressure dominates through Thursday night with
  overnight lows in valleys into the -20 F range.

- Increasing south winds through the AK Range Passes Thu night to
  45+ mph. Easterly Tanana Valley Jet through Delta Junction also
  ramping up to 45+ mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Cooler with blustery onshore winds 15 to 30 mph and snow showers
  through tonight, with locally heavy snow squalls at time along
  the coast. Light snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches favoring
  the Seward Peninsula to the W Brooks Range as well as the N
  Interior.

- Snow squalls and blowing snow as a front moves over Saint
  Lawrence Island through Wed night. Some snow squalls will be
  heavy at times.

- Colder high pressure with local valley fog possible Wed morning
  and Thu morning.

- A front brings snow and blowing snow to the YK Delta and Seward
  Peninsula Thu night and Friday with easterly offshore winds to
  gale force. Significant blowing snow is possible over the YK
  Delta.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Snow showers and west-southwest winds impact the Arctic Coast
  with local blowing snow and gusty west winds to 30 mph over the
  E Arctic coastline. Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
  for Tue and Tue night for Kaktovik.

- Southwest winds to 25 to 30 mph over the W Arctic coast from
  Point Hope to Wainright will cause minor blowing snow through
  tonight.

- Snow and blowing snow around Atigun Pass and the Brooks Range
  passes wanes today.

- High pressure and cooler temps build-in Wed through Fri.

Forecast Discussion, Analysis, and Confidence...
Upper level heights are falling as shortwave trough energy from
the Bering Sea shifts east across the Mainland, and as the strong
chinook pattern moves into Canada. A 988 mb low persists over the
Chukchi Sea with an arctic front extending into the Beaufort Sea
along the E Arctic Coast. Another upper low, around 501 dam in
height, will move from near the Gulf of Anadyr to Wrangel Island
through Friday. Another low moving north to the Brooks Range,
around 508 dam in height, will move slowly east and suppress
heights aloft over the Interior through Thu night, allowing for a
brief colder spell in temps as high pressure settles in. The
aforementioned shortwave trough energy moves over the E Interior
today and brings snow showers. Finally, another surge of Pacific
energy will move over the W Coast and W interior as ridging aloft
builds in this weekend for the E Interior, bringing stormy weather
out west and warmer temps over the E Interior. Forecast confidence
is high.

Extended Forecast Days 4-8...
A Bering Sea/Pacific low will be asserting its dominance over
Alaska beginning the extended period on Friday, with a large ridge
of high pressure aloft building over the eastern half of Alaska.
East winds ramp up out west and across the Interior blowholes like
the Tanana Valley. Gradual warming will occur, with snow and
blowing snow a concern over the YK Delta to Seward Peninsula as
early as Thu night. Strong south winds aloft will allow for
Interior warming, although this storm will not be a classic
chinook like we recently saw over the Interior. It will allow for
warming temps above seasonal norms this weekend. West Coast and W
interior will see more heavy snow turning to a messy mixed
precipitation during the weekend. The ridge will shift east by
later Sunday, so there is a chance for precipitation for the
Interior as downslope flow wanes. The longer term pattern for
possibly the rest of Jan looks well above seasonal norms with no
major arctic air intrusions for the foreseeable future.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834-850.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-817-854-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-853-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.

&&

$$

Ahsenmacher