Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 202222

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
222 PM AKDT Tue Aug 20 2019

A cold low aloft over Kaktovik will move south this evening over
the eastern Brooks Range and into the eastern Interior Wed. This
will bring some early season snow to the eastern Brooks Range and
potentially along the Dalton Highway as well.

Behind this, a front extending from a low up in the Arctic will
move across the entire state Thu and Fri, leading to generally
more wet weather across the region, and likely some snow across
the higher elevations. Models show more shortwaves moving across
the area this weekend and next week, so generally showery and
cooler than normal temperatures can be expected for the next week
or so.

The Chena River dropped below flood stage early this morning, so
canceled that flood warning and issued a flood advisory for
upstream of the Moose Creek Dam, as ground water will still be an
issue for a few days.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A cold upper low will move south over the North Slope and Brooks
Range tonight and Wednesday. While temperatures should be warm
enough for this to still be rain on most of the North Slope, this
will bring a few inches of snow to the area. Generally the eastern
Brooks Range above 2000 feet will see 4 to 6 inches of snow with
localized amounts of up to almost 8 inches before the system moves
out of the area Wed afternoon. Below 2000 feet, only 1 to 2
inches of snow are expected. As this pushes south tonight, gusty
generally northerly winds over the North Slope will shift westward
and affect the western Arctic and West Coast. This system will
push south and east to Eagle and back into Canada by Wed evening.

Thursday, a low drops south out of the Arctic into the Beaufort
Sea, then moves east Friday and Saturday, dragging a cold front
across the state with it. This will bring more rain showers and
high elevation snow going into the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Generally northerly winds will persist through most of the week.
Expect an increase in wind speed as a shortwave trough enters the
Bering Sea Thursday and an area of low pressure drops south into
the Beaufort Sea, tightening the pressure gradient, and winds of
20 to 25 knots are expected Thu and Fri. The low over the
Beaufort will generally remain in place, perhaps drifting east a
little by the weekend. Winds along the west coast will drop off
slightly Saturday as the shortwave trough pushes further south
through the Bering. There may be some coastal erosion as a long
500+ nm fetch of northerly winds pile 5 to 7 foot waves off the
coasts of Shishmaref and Wales, but currently we are not expecting
major inundations of water from this. It will be something we
continue to watch, however. Otherwise, expect off and on showery
conditions Thu into the weekend.

Eastern Interior...
The upper low moving south into the Interior tonight and Wednesday
will drop south to Eagle by Wednesday afternoon, weakening as it
moves east into Canada Thursday. Behind this will be a broad
trough of low pressure moving into the Interior Thursday night,
then slowly moving across the Interior through the weekend. This
will bring a generally cooler and wet pattern to the Interior, but
not so much to expect more flooding.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A 500-600 mile fetch of the Chukchi/Bering Seas with N winds
blowing 20-25 kt from late Thu into Sat will cause elevated surf
at Shishmaref and the Bering Strait Thu PM into the weekend. At
this time we do not expect high surf as high surf normally
requires winds 25kt or greater, but there normally is not a 500+
mile fetch length for several days, so this needs to be watched
as we get closer to Thu, Fri.


Expect generally cooler and wetter weather moving in Wednesday,
persisting into the weekend.

A cold low pressure system over the Eastern North Slope will
move over the Eastern Brooks Range this afternoon and over
the northeast Interior tonight, to near Eagle on Wed, then
move east into Canada Wed Night. This will bring colder
temperatures and rain to the Eastern Interior tonight and Wed,
with snow above 2500 feet.


Although river levels are dropping, expect high levels for the
next few days across the Tanana and Chena River basins. The Moose
Creek Dam concluded operations early this morning, but water
backed up behind the dam will take a few days to drain. This means
water levels along the Tanana from Fairbanks to North Pole will
decrease slowly.

Flood advisories remain for low lying areas along the Tanana River
from the Salcha River to Tanana, for the Nenana River near the
confluence of the Tanana River, and for low lying areas along the
Chena River from the Moose Creek Dam to Fairbanks.


Winter Storm Warning for AKZ206.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218-AKZ220.

Flood Advisory for AKZ221-AKZ223.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.


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