Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 202239

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
239 PM AKDT Sun Oct 20 2019

A strong upper level jet stream remains to the south of the state
this afternoon keeping the main storm track well south of the
region. Only weakening features are impacting Northern Alaska this
afternoon. A front weakening over the YK Delta region, high
pressure over the Brooks Range and a couple of weak troughs. This
pattern evolves by Tuesday night with a strong low over Bristol
Bay and the upper jet buckles enough to bring impact weather back
into Northern Alaska.



North Slope and Brooks Range...
High pressure center north of Banks Island a high pressure center
near Old Crowe with a trough off shore will keep the winds up near
small craft advisory levels through mid day on Monday mainly just
off the coast a few miles, right along the immediate coast wind
will range below small craft levels. After mid day on Monday for
the remainder of the short term period low impact weather
expected. Other than rouge areas of dense fog along the immediate
coast that will require highlights as needed.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A weak low over the northern Bering Sea with a weakening front
will move through the region today with light precipitation. Wind
will remain below impact criteria for all locations through the
short term of the forecast. At the end of the short term period
Tuesday night a strong low will move into Bristol Bay creating an
increase in winds across the region and precipitation for areas
south of Norton Sound. Confidence in strength of the low and
location will not introduce any highlights at this time.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Weak ridging below 400 MB with a surface trough will be the
weather story at the beginning of the forecast period this
afternoon. A few minor ripples in the flow have allowed for a few
flurries about the region mainly along the southern Brooks Range.
Expect these snow showers/flurries to continue to slide east this
evening. Monday is a transition  day as the strong storm system
well to the south begins to impact the flow aloft for the region.
By late Tuesday stronger southerly flow will take over. This
should bring some stronger wind to the passes and along a Tanana
Valley east of Fairbanks. Due to the confidence on location and
strength of the low as it moves into Bristol Bay will not opt for
any highlights at this time.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Long term model ensembles
show a high probability of north-northeast flow building up for
Wednesday and Thursday for the Bering Strait region. North facing
shorelines including Diomede, St. Lawrence Island, and locations
west of Shishmaref should monitor the situation as the confidence
in the location of this strong storm increases.


Small Craft Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.


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