Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 282255
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
255 PM AKDT Wed Oct 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Much of the state will be under a longwave trough pattern through
the rest of the week and into the weekend. Shortwave troughs
rotating around this longwave pattern will support continued NW
flow and snow squalls along the NW coast. This will also create
elevated surf above the normal high tide line from Utqiagvik down
to the Bering Strait including, the northern Seward Peninsula and
Kotzebue Sound. Elsewhere, quieter weather with temperatures
cooling each day into the weekend. Just how cold some locations
will get will all be dependent on cloud cover.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
28/12Z 500 mb RAOBs verified well against models with only minor
differences. Models into day 3 do not stray much and for the most
part agree on the upper air pattern. A trough over much of the
state will continue to plunge south and southwestward. Shortwave
troughs will enter the NW Arctic coast Thursday morning, with a
stronger shortwave entering the same area Friday morning. Once
this shortwave rotates southeastward, 500 mb heights and thus 850
mb temperatures will drop, ushering in colder temperatures for the
weekend and early next week.

28/18Z surface observations verified well against models. High
pressure resides over the Y-K Delta region and the Chukchi Sea
Peninsula of Siberia. Surface lows are located NE of Barter Island
and south of Prince William Sound. The surface low in the eastern
Beaufort Sea is supporting gusty conditions along the coast from
Prudhoe Bay and east to the border. The main feature to watch will
be a vertically stacked low that will approach the NW Arctic
Friday afternoon and evening bringing the best shot at snow to
this region. Models at 12Z, have diverged on placement of the
center and where it enters ashore.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Clear and calm conditions the next couple of days except snow
residing in the far SE Interior. The next shot at light snow for
Fairbanks will be Saturday morning as a shortwave enters the
region from the NW. Temperatures will trend downward for daytime
highs and overnight lows heading for much of the Interior towards
the weekend. Patchy freezing fog possible in areas where skies
clear and winds calm.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Mostly clear and calm conditions for much of the Western Interior
until snow enters from the NW Friday into Saturday. From Nome
south, only a chance of light snow into Thursday followed by
clearing. From the Bering Strait north to Point Hope, including
Kotzebue Sound, expect persistent onshore winds and snow of 1 to 2
inches each day through the weekend. Also, 2 to 3 ft of elevated
surf is forecast Friday afternoon and evening for most areas along
the northern Seward Peninsula, Kotzebue Sound, and along the
Chukchi Sea Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Onshore winds resulting in sea effect snow will continue from
Utqiagvik west to Cape Lisburne through the weekend. No more than
2 inches of snow each day, however as a result of persistent NW
winds, slight elevated surf is possible. Utqiagvik is forecast to
be about one foot above the normal high tide line Friday
afternoon. Light snow occurring from Atigun Pass NE to Kaktovik
this afternoon will fall apart into tonight. A chance of snow will
return for the Brooks Range Thursday and Thursday evening.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Elevated surf up to 1 foot above the normal high tide line for
Utqiagvik, and 2 to 3 feet in locations such as Kotzebue,
Kivalina, and Shishmaref due to persistent NW winds.

Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...
A trough will dig deep into southwest and south Alaska early next
week, allowing the potential for cold temperatures from NW Canada
to dive southwestward. Interior locations free of clouds, coupled
with 850 mb temperatures in the 20 below range, could see the
coldest temperatures of the season so far. NW flow with snow
squalls will also continue for NW Alaska, keeping the potential
possible for elevated surf above the normal high tide line for
coastal locations from Utqiagvik south to the Bering Strait.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230-PKZ235.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

KS OCT 20


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