Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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731
FXAK69 PAFG 122236
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
236 PM AKDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The wet weather continues for the West Coast and Western Interior
this weekend as an upper level low that dominates the pattern is
in no hurry to go anywhere. A series of fronts will drop an
additional half an inch to an inch of rainfall across the region,
with the highest amounts falling from the Seward Peninsula to the
Upper Kuskokwim Valley. Turning attention to the Alaska Range, a
developing chinook will produce strong southerly winds of 30 to 40
mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph through the Alaska Range passes
this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, broad upper level troughing encompasses much of
mainland Alaska, with a 530 dam (decameter) low centered west of
St Matthew Island. A shortwave extending southeast from the low to
Toksook Bay this afternoon will lift north to the Seward
Peninsula by Saturday morning and northwest Arctic coast by
Saturday afternoon, as the upper level low tracks east southeast
to be centered over the southern Y-K Delta Saturday afternoon. The
low largely remains centered over the Y-K Delta through Monday
and weakens, keeping the eastern half of the Interior under
southerly flow aloft.

At the surface, a 992 mb low near Newtok this afternoon moves to
be near eastern St Lawrence Island Saturday morning and then
tracks southeast to be a 995 mb low 100 NM northeast of St Matthew
Island Saturday afternoon and moves onshore near Goodnews Bay
Sunday morning and dissipates. As this low travels around the
southeastern Bering Sea, it will push a series of fronts across
the West Coast and Western Interior. Weak high pressure persists
over the Arctic waters through the weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range... A series of fronts moving across
the Brooks Range and North Slope will maintain precip chances
across the Brooks Range through the weekend. Blustery northeast
winds develop and precip chances ramp up for the West and
Northwest Arctic Coast Saturday night into Sunday, with rainfall
accumulations near a quarter of an inch from Utqiagvik to Point
Lay and up to half an inch possible in the Brooks Range. Further
east, rainfall amounts will be less. Areas of stratus and fog will
persist through the weekend, with visibility dropping below a
mile at times after midnight and through the early morning hours.

West Coast and Western Interior... Widespread wetting rains
continue through the weekend across the Western Interior as a
series of fronts moves across. An additional half an inch to an
inch of rain is expected. The heaviest rain is will from the
Seward Peninsula to the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. The rain will be
accompanied by near normal to slightly below normal temperatures.
Breezy southeasterly winds develop this afternoon across the Lower
Yukon Valley to the Seward Peninsula diminishing early Saturday.
Isolated wet thunderstorms possible Huslia to Red Dog Mine east to
Anaktuvuk Pass today.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Strong chinook flow is developing in the Alaska Range passes this
afternoon with gusts of 50 to 60 mph expected into Sunday morning.
Away from the Alaska Range winds generally 15 mph or less.
Temperatures remain warm Saturday with highs in the mid to upper
60s to upper 70s, with temperatures on Sunday a couple of degrees
cooler due to increased cloud cover moving across the area. A
series of fronts pushing across the Western Interior will approach
the Central Interior Saturday increasing precip chances, with the
Eastern Interior remaining on the drier side this weekend as
southerly flow aloft limits precipitation. Once chinook flow
diminishes Sunday, precip chances will spread east.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...The pesky upper level low remains the
dominant feature early in the extended period, slowly dropping
south to the Gulf of Alaska by mid-week. This will allow for an
attempt at weak riding to develop across the Interior from a ridge
in the North Pacific. This break in troughing will brief, as
another upper level low moves east across the Bering. This pattern
will result in a mix of sun and clouds across northern Alaska
through the week with moderated temperatures.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread wetting rains continue through the weekend across the
Western Interior, accompanied by near normal to slightly below
normal temperatures. Breezy southeasterly winds develop this
afternoon across the Lower Yukon Valley to the Seward Peninsula
diminishing early Saturday. The Eastern Interior remains on the
drier side this weekend as southerly flow aloft limits
precipitation. Strong chinook flow is developing in the Alaska
Range passes this afternoon with gusts of 50 to 60 mph expected
through the weekend. Away from the Alaska Range winds generally 15
mph or less. Temperatures remain warm Saturday with highs in the
mid to upper 60s to upper 70s, with temperatures on Sunday a
couple of degrees cooler due to increased cloud cover moving
across the area. Minimum RH values largely above 30 percent this
weekend, with the areas from Donnelly Dome to Delta Junction and
from Healy to the Rex Bridge possibly dropping into the upper 20s
this afternoon. At this time, do not expect critical fire weather
conditions to be met this afternoon near Delta Junction, but it
may be close. Isolated wet thunderstorms possible Huslia to Red
Dog Mine east to Anaktuvuk Pass and then to the Canadian border,
as well as across the Fortymile Country today. Thunderstorm
potential is less Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
More rainfall is expected over the Western Interior this weekend,
with an additional half an inch to an inch of rain. The heaviest
rain is will from the Seward Peninsula to the Upper Kuskokwim
Valley. While it is significant rainfall, no significant issues
are anticipated on rivers.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857-858.
&&

$$