Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 081154
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
354 AM AKDT Sat Aug 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Decreased thunderstorm and shower activity over most
of the area today, but there will still be some Isolated activity
in the Interior. Patchy dense fog to start the morning in the
Arctic, then cloudy. The West Coast will see improving conditions
with a decrease in the showers today. Some gusty winds developing
near Alaska Range passes tonight. Temperatures will be a couple
degrees cooler in most areas today, and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Still not a lot of confidence in the models beyond 24
hours, and even in the short term there is some mixed signals. The
08/00Z solutions are similar to the last several runs and maintain
good run to run agreement in the very short term. Convective
indicies are confusing again today with some rather high CAPE
values in the rather benign pattern over the area. Precipitation
solutions show a wide range of probabilities and QPF through the
weekend, especially with the easterly wave that will move over the
Southeast Interior Sunday night and Monday. Confidence is leaning
more toward the NAM solution, but will maintain continuity and
use a blend of the solutions for probabilities, but lean on the
NAM for QPF. Solutions continue to show ridging aloft curling
around the low over the Central Interior Monday and that should
keep the heaviest precipitation to the east of Fairbanks.
The struggles continue in the extended periods, so Ensemble means
should work best.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Lower heights have moved off to the east
this morning with a 552 dam high pushing north over the Central
Interior and a large col over the Eastern Arctic and Eastern
Brooks Range. Longwave trough remains west of the state with a 528
dam low in the high Siberian Arctic, a 531 dam low 150 nm
southeast of the New Siberian Islands, and a 542 dam low 100 nm
north of St Matthew Island with trough extending over Dutch Harbor
to a developing low in the North Pacific. High that was over the
Central Beaufort Sea has moved to 300 north of Banks Island this
morning. By this afternoon the ridging will slide to the east with
the axis lying from Burwash Landing YT to Eagle to Arctic
Village. A 551 dam low will develop just north of the Eastern
Arctic Coast with troughing extending southeast to a 545 dam low
over the Northwest Territories. The longwave trough will push east
as the low near St Matthew Island moves near St Lawrence Island,
and the low in the North Pacific moves to 100 nm southeast of Sand
Point. By Sunday afternoon the ridging will slide north to lie
over the Eastern Brooks Range and will extend southwest over the
Middle Yukon Valley. The low near Sand Point will move to just
south of Yakutat with a shortwave swinging around it over the
Upper Tanana Valley. The longwave trough will slide east of the
Chukchi Sea and West Coast. By Monday morning the low near Yakutat
will drift north of Yakutat and the shortwave will swing into the
Central Interior just east of Fairbanks. At 850 hpa...Small dome
of around +10C temperatures hanging on over the Upper Yukon Flats
and AlCan Border this morning and will continue to hang on through
Sunday cooling. A pool of cooler air with temperatures around 0C
has moved over over the Bering Strait and Seward Peninsula and
will linger through the weekend.

Surface...Really not a lot of change except for position of the
minor features that dominate the pattern over the state. Broad low
pressure persists with a few bubble highs. Thermal trough is over
the Northeast Interior and will slide northeast today. Sunday
morning a 992 mb low will be in the Southern Beaufort Sea with a
trough extending southwest to a 1001 mb low near Arctic Village
and a 1004 mb low in the Western Brooks Range. A 989 mb low will
move to 300 nm south of Prince William Sound, and a 1003 mb low
will be between St Matthew and St Lawrence Islands, while week
high pressure lies from Northway to Ruby. Sunday afternoon low
pressure will push north into the Central and Eastern Interior as
the low south of the Gulf of Alaska moves to 150 nm southwest of
Yakutat at 987 mb and a weather front swings around the low to the
Upper Tanana Valley. Weak high pressure will develop over the
West Coast to the Northwest Coast with a 1010 mb high in Kotzebue
Sound. Monday morning the low near Yakutat will drift toward
McCarthy as the front moves to just east of Fairbanks and a 1004
mb low develops near Northway. Weak high pressure over the West
Coast will drift west with weak low pressure developing in Norton
Sound.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Another round of dense fog and
stratus with a few sprinkles. Clearing in the Brooks Range after
some morning fog. Winds northeast to east 5 to 15 mph for most
areas. High temperatures along the coast in the 40s with lows in
the 30s. Inland and in the Brooks Range highs near 60 with lows
around 40.

West Coast and Western Interior...Slight chance of showers this
morning, then improving conditions the remainder of the day for
most areas. Winds along the coast south to southwest at 5 to 15
mph becoming northeast to east tonight. Inland winds southwest to
10 mph. High temperatures on the coast around 50 with lows around
40, while inland highs around 60 with lows in the 40s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Isolated thunderstorms and showers
today over most of the area then some clearing overnight. Winds
light and variable except increasing near Alaska Range Passes
tonight to gusting around 45 mph. Temperatures a couple degrees
cooler today with highs in the upper 60s and lows around 50.
Temperatures will cool a couple more degrees Sunday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.Fire Weather...Isolated wet thunderstorms over much of the
forecast area today. Temperatures a couple degrees cooler today
than yesterday. Some gusty winds to 45 mph near the Alaska Range
Passes tonight, otherwise winds variable to 10 mph. Weather front
moving to the Eastern Interior will bring increased chance for
Wetting Rain to the area Sunday night through Monday. Relative
Humidity values will remain mostly above 40 percent with excellent
overnight recovery.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No issue at this time, but some heavier rains
expected Sunday night and Monday in the Eastern Interior, and may
impact the Central Interior. The heavier rains area expected to
produce rising rivers Monday and Tuesday from the Richardson
Highway east. For the latest river conditions go to
www.weather.gov/aprfc.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&

$$

SDB AUG 20


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