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986
FXUS61 KAKQ 030739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
339 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Mainly dry conditions are expected late in the week into next
weekend as high pressure brings lower humidity to the region.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

- Areas of fog early this morning across southern VA/interior
  NE NC. SPS issued, will monitor for potential Dense Fog
  Advisory.

The latest WX analysis indicates a strong upper low (~550 dm),
centered across NW Quebec, with the axis of the upper trough
extending SW into the Great Lakes/OH Valley (with yesterday`s
portion offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast). At the sfc, a weak
sfc trough/stalled remnant frontal boundary is in place from the
southern New England coast SSW into the VA/NC piedmont. An area
of clouds and even isolated showers is situated just W of the
CWA, with widespread low clouds and fog in place along the I-85
corridor in south central VA, extending E-NE into southern
portions of metro RIC, and interior SE VA. An SPS has been
issued for now in these areas with some obs reporting VSBYs
down to 1/4SM (generally the lowest VSBYs being in south central
VA from SE of FVX to near EMV and AVC). A Dense Fog Advisory
may be issued if these conditions continue (will monitor
conditions for possibility that the clouds to the west could
move in and improve VSBYs slightly). Otherwise, temperatures
early this morning are primarily in the lower 70s, with a few
upper 60s W of I-95, and mid 70s near the coast in SE VA.

For today, the upper low drops SE across Quebec, and moves into
northern New England tonight. The weak boundary in place over
the local area is expected to drift east and weaken offshore of
the local area later this morning. Meanwhile, a stronger cold
front out ahead of the upper trough drops SE through the
eastern Great Lakes and pushes into the northern mid-Atlantic
region late this aftn and evening. Will note that PWAT values
have dropped considerably compared to the past several days,
currently being analyzed at ~1.20" over NW sections of the FA,
and ~1.80" in the far SE (compared to >2.00"). Therefore, expect
mainly dry conditions later today despite the approach of
another cold front from the NNW, and the southern flank of a
shortwave passing by this aftn. The NBM keeps the entire area
rain-free today, but most of the CAMs show spotty aftn shower
activity along and S of I-64 this aftn. Have expanded the slight
chc PoPs up into south-central and interior SE VA (maintaining
it in NE NC) for this possibility (kept it S of RIC due to the
expectation of lowering dew pts but would not be surprised to
see a brief shower there as well). Highs today will mostly be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with dew pts dropping into the
mid- upper 60s N, while remaining in the lower 70s SE. Any
showers/tstms this aftn should rapidly dissipate towards sunset,
with a mostly clear sky tonight as sfc high pressure builds SSE
from the Great Lakes into the local area. Lows tonight avg in
the mid to upper 60s inland, with lower 70s along the SE coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, warm, and noticeably less humid for the Fourth of July
  holiday into the first part of the weekend.

A pleasant and dry, but still warm, Fourth of July holiday looks to
be in store as an upper trough axis slides through and high pressure
builds to our N. Highs temperatures range from the mid/upper
80s to around 90 F, with sunny to mostly sunny skies and light
onshore flow. Dew points range through the 60s (potentially down
into the upper 50s at peak heating across the northern 1/2 of
the CWA), so it should feel quite comfortable. Mainly clear
Friday night with lows mostly ranging through the 60s (lower 70s
SE coast).

Into the holiday weekend, high pressure looks to remain N of the
area. Meanwhile, a stacked sfc/upper low offshore of the SE coast
should continue to spin through the weekend. While this system has a
moderate (40%) probability of taking on some tropical/subtropical
characteristics, most guidance keeps it quite weak and S of the
area through the weekend. With the high N and low S, easterly
onshore flow of ~10 mph should keep temps near normal for early
July. Highs in the mid- upper 80s, with near 90 F possible in
the central VA/urban RIC corridor. Dew points in the upper 50s
to lower 60s will make for a very comfortable airmass for July.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A chance of showers across southeast VA and northeast NC
  Sunday. Otherwise, mostly to partly sunny and warm.

- Becoming increasingly hot and humid by next week with
  afternoon/evening storm chances.

A gradual increase in humidity starts Sunday, and especially Monday-
Tuesday, along with chances of diurnal showers/tstms well in advance
of another cold front moving into the Great Lakes. PoPs for Sunday
are 20-30% as some moisture pushes in from the low to our
south. While any appreciable impact still looks to stay well S
of the area, it is worth keeping an eye on this in case it
messes with the cloud cover or temp forecast (given it likely
undercuts the building ridge). Still, Sunday still looks quite
pleasant and far from a washout (for now). The aforementioned
low or trough axis lingers offshore into early next week before
moving off to our NE midweek. Daily high temperatures also warm
back into the lower 90s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Wednesday...

Some lingering IFR/LCL LIFR along the coast to begin the 00z/03
TAF period, but generally noting showers quickly weakening and
exiting offshore. Gradual clearing continues over the next few
hours, which should clear the way for some fog potential,
especially after midnight, especially SSW of KORF and at KECG.
Have allowed for MVFR VSBY/CIGs at PHF and ORF late tonight
with IFR/low-end MVFR hanging on near ECG toward sunrise,
clearing shortly thereafter. Winds are generally light and
variable and should remain that way through much of the TAF
period, becoming WNW 5-10 kt by mid-morning Thursday, with some
afternoon seabreeze accounted for at KORF/KECG. Slight chance of
an afternoon shower or storm at KECG, but chances/areal coverage
are much too low to account for in the terminal forecast at
this time.

Outlook: VFR conditions return Thursday afternoon through
Sunday as drier air builds into the region behind the cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions today and through the weekend.

Benign conditions continue today as high pressure slides in behind a
cold front. Latest obs reflect westerly winds at 5-10kt. Seas are 2-
3ft and waves are around 1ft. Once high pressure slides overhead
later this morning, winds become lighter and variable. A sea breeze
looks to develop this afternoon. By the evening, light winds become
southwesterly. Another cold front crosses the waters early Friday
morning. Winds turn to the NNW behind it and increase to 10-15kt.
Cannot rule out a few gusts to 20kt Fri morning, especially in the
lower Ches Bay. Winds then turn onshore Fri evening and remain
onshore through the weekend. Wind speeds will typically be 5-10kt,
but will likely see slight increases in the evenings. Next chance
for SCAs would be Sunday evening with SE winds, but looks rather
marginal so far (~15kt with gusts ~20kt). Seas will remain at 2-3ft
today through the weekend. Waves will be 1-2ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/SW
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...AC