Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 171939 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 339 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moves across the Carolinas tonight. High pressure builds into the area Sunday, then moves offshore Sunday night. A trio of low pressure systems are expected to impact the region Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Subsidence behind the first s/w will likely result in a svrl hr prd of uneventful wx erly this evening. Some partial sunshine develops ovr the piedmont and srn zones next few hrs. Will keep low chc pops thru 00Z. Potent s/w progged to track se along the old frontal boundary later tonight. The low currently over the KY/TN valley tracks se while pulling the front back north as a warm front aftr 03Z. Key to the forecast (thunder wise) will be just how far north the warm front gets. Latest data suggests this boundary lifts north to a position just south of the VA/NC border late this eve then sags south a bit late tonight as the low tracks across the NC coastal plain. Mainly elevated thunder expected across AKQ srn most zones. SPC noting this in their day one outlook stating the strongest activity remains south of the boundary. Thus, will carry likely pops with chc thunder srn most zones for a svrl hr period aftr 03Z. Shwrs elsewhere except drying out across the lwr Md ern shore and northern neck this eve as high pressure begins to push south. This high will push the rain chcs farther south after midnight with shwr chcs continuing thru 12Z across sern zones. Pcpn ends before any p-type issues arise as lows drop to btwn 30-35 north, mid-upr 30s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry with near seasonable temps Sun as weak high pres moves across the area. Mstly sunny. Highs 50-55 along the coast, 55-60 west of the bay. The high moves off the coast Sun night. Mstly clr except for some incrg clouds across the piedmont. Lows in the 30s. The high pushes farther offshore Monday and will be quickly followed by overrunning pcpn leading to a weak or in-situ CAD setup across the region during the aftrn. Meanwhile, a potent s/w races eastward from the southern plains in the morning into the TN Valley by late in the day. Cut back pops a bit through 18Z and confined them to the wrn and srn most zones due to weak upslope flow. Light rain expected to break out and overspread areas west of the bay in the aftrn. QPF amounts during Monday generally aob one tenth inch. Highs 45-50 ern shore and through the 50s west of the bay. A widespread rain is expected Mon night as the s/w reaches the mts by 12z Tue. Categorical pops all areas with some mdt rainfall psbl aftr midnight. Lows mid 30s north to mid 40s south. A sfc low organizes over the Carolinas Monday night before emerging off the mid-Atlantic coast and deepening Tuesday morning. Will carry likely to categorical PoPs Tues morning as the best lift shifts east by 18Z. Chc pops west with likely east Tue aftrn. Highs 40-45 north, 50-55 se coastal areas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The first few days of Spring will be more like Winter as deep/anomalous trough sets up invof ern CONUS. Using a blend of WPC/GFS/ECMWF the extended periods. Initial lo pres pulls slowly away from the coast Tue night...w/ trailing upper level system diving through the region Wed (w/ secondary lo pres developing invof SE VA-NC coasts). Partial thickness scheme gives rather hi potential for mixed ptype (SN/RA over many inland locations...mainly Wed/Wed eve). Way too soon to speculate on if/any accums. Drying out/chilly Wed night-Thu...remaining so through Fri. After that...the next lo pres system expected to approach from the W by Sat (bringing at least increasing cloudiness). Lows Tue night in the l-m30s inland...u30s/around 40F far SE VA-NE NC. Highs Wed in the u30s inland...l40s coastal SE VA-NE NC. Lows Wed night in the u20s W to the m30s right at the coast. Highs Thu ranging through the 40s. Lows Thu night in the u20s W...m30s at the coast. Highs Fri around 50F W...m-u40s elsewhere. Highs Sat in the l50s inland...m-u40s at the coast. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions across the area this aftrn despite the initial s/w moving across the area. Most of the moisture assctd with this feature is going to moisten up the column, so will only carry VCSH at RIC/SBY next few hrs where the best forcing is. Next s/w crosses the region aftr 03Z Sun. Latest models keep the most sgnfcnt moisture across the Carolinas but still can`t rule out sct shwrs across sern taf sites tonight. Thus, kept the VFR conditions with VCSH once again. Otw, decreasing cloudiness aftr 12Z Sun as high pressure builds in from the north. Outlook: Another window of flight restrictions late Mon thru Wed as a trio of low pressure systems impact the area. Rain for the most part may mix with or change to wet snow by Wed at RIC/SBY. && .MARINE... Current observations show E/SE winds of 10 to 15 knots over a majority of the waters this afternoon. Seas average 2 to 3 feet and waves average 1 to 2 feet or less. A surface low is expected to move across portions of southern VA and NE NC later tonight. As the low moves off the coast NC coast late tonight into Sunday morning, will see a bit of surge in NNE winds to ~15 knots. Still am not anticipating SCA headlines due to very limited cold air, but would not be surprised to see a few gusts in excess of 20 knots. Winds diminish to 5 to 10 knots or less Sunday afternoon while shifting to the east and then to the south Sunday night. Conditions become much more unsettled Monday night through at least midweek as the next low pressure system approaches from the TN Valley, then is progged to re-develop as a coastal low off the Mid- Atlantic coast Tuesday. The first low pushes off to the NE Tuesday afternoon and evening with yet another low expected to develop off the SE Coast and then rapidly intensify while pushing NE off the Mid- Atlantic coast Wednesday night. Still looking as though strong SCA conditions appear Monday night through Wednesday with a period of Gales even a possibility Tuesday night and again Wednesday into Wednesday night depending on the exact track of these systems. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...JDM/MPR LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...MPR MARINE...AJB/LKB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.