Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 AXUS71 KAKQ 061901 DGTAKQ MDC019-039-045-047-NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-VAC001-007- 025-033-036-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-081-085-087-093-095-097-101- 103-109-111-115-117-119-127-131-133-135-145-147-149-159-175-181-183- 193-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-700-710-730-735-740-760-800-810-830- 131915- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 201 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022 ...Modest Improvement in Drought Due to Recent Rainfall... SYNOPSIS... Drought intensity has lessened for much of the area in response to a period of well above normal precipitation to begin January. The January 6th issuance (valid January 4th) of the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor shows no areas of Severe Drought (D2 on the U.S. Drought Monitor scale). Previously, the D2 area covered western Mecklenburg County in Virginia, as well as portions of Bertie and Currituck County in North Carolina. Moderate Drought (D1 on the scale) has been reduced in areal coverage and is now only found across southside Hampton Roads and most of northeast North Carolina. The portion of western Mecklenburg County what was previously D2 is now D1. For much of the rest of the Wakefield Forecast Office`s area, Abnormally Dry (D0 on the scale) conditions persist. Drought designations are determined weekly by the U.S. Drought Monitor in collaboration with the North Carolina Drought Monitor Advisory Council and the Virginia Drought Monitoring Task Force. The categories of drought from the U.S. Drought Monitor are explained below: D0 is Abnormally Dry and is the least intense indicator of drought on scale that ranges from D0 through D4. It indicates that a region may be entering or emerging from an actual drought. D1 is Moderate Drought...Conditions that may be associated with D1 include some crop damage, increased fire risk, falling stream and reservoir levels and some water shortages. May be thought of as approximately the 5- to 10-year year drought or the 10 to 20 percent annual chance of occurrence. D2 is Severe Drought...Crop or pasture damage is likely, fire risk potentially high, along with low streamflows, water shortages and possible restrictions. May be thought of as approximately the 10- to 20-year year drought or the 5 to 10 percent annual chance of occurrence. D3 is Extreme Drought...Major crop and pasture losses and widespread water shortages and restrictions. May be thought of as approximately the 20- to 50-year year drought or the 2 to 5 percent annual chance of occurrence. D4 is Exceptional Drought...Widespread crops and pasture losses, water shortages and water emergencies. May be thought of as approximately the 50- to 100-year year drought or the 1 to 2 percent annual chance of occurrence. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... Drought related impacts are currently limited given the time of year and recent spell of above normal precipitation. No major agricultural impacts have been noted. Streamflows are currently near to below normal and local reservoir levels are at or near seasonal levels and guide curves. Additionally, there are no counties within the Wakefield County Warning area that remain under a burn ban. As of January 4th, the soil moisture across the region was between 40 mm and 60 mm below normal with the ranking percentiles in the 20 to 40% of normal. Groundwater wells in southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina continue to show below normal levels but with some improvement in the past several days. CLIMATE SUMMARY... January began with a significant rain and snow event for the region. Liquid precipitation amounts ranged from two to four inches across the area, yielding an above normal start (so far) to 2022. 30-day precipitation ending January 5th ranged from around two inches in the eastern Virginia Piedmont to near five inches in south- central Virginia. These totals were around one inch below normal near Farmville in the Virginia Piedmont to as much as three inches above normal in south-central Virginia. Most of the precipitation during this period occurred with the significant rain and snow event January 2-3. Looking back to the beginning of the water year, October 1, 2021 through January 5, 2022, the precipitation totals across the area generally ranged from four inches in the Piedmont to around eleven inches near Williamsburg, Virginia. These totals ranged from near normal to as much as four inches below normal. The driest areas since early fall continue to be focused on the Virginia Piedmont, southside Hampton Roads into northeast North Carolina, and also portions of the Virginia Eastern Shore. This matches well with the latest issuance of the U.S. Drought Monitor. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... Quantatative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) over the next 7 days (through 7 AM Thursday, January 13th) indicate precipitation amounts ranging from 0.50 inches to 1.00 inches across all of the Wakefield Forecast Office`s County Warning Area. This would have a beneficial effect on the drought situation but will not eliminate it. Looking out a little further in time, the latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8 to 14 day outlook for January 13-19 is indicating near normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation. The next three month outlook for the local area, which covers January through March, shows a forecast for above normal temperatures and near or below normal precipitation chances. This is consistent with the expected conditions during a La Nina pattern which is ongoing and expected to continue into the spring of 2022. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... As a result of the recent wet conditions, 7-, 14-, and 28-day streamflow conditions have shown significant improvements, with only the central Virginia coast showing below normal conditions. For the local major reservoirs, including John H. Kerr and Lake Anna, water storage is at or near normal levels and guide curves for this time of year. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... This will be the last issuance of the drought information statement unless conditions once again deteriorate and severe drought returns to the Wakefield CWA. && RELATED WEB SITES... Additional information on current conditions and forecast drought may be found at the following websites: U.S. Drought Monitor...https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu NOAA Drought Portal...https://www.drought.gov Climate Prediction Center (CPC)...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)...https://waterwatch.usgs.gov Drought Impact Reporter...http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map Southeast Regional Climate Center (VA/NC)...https://sercc.com Northeast Regional Climate Center (WV)... https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu Local Weather Information...http://www.weather.gov/akq ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION... National Weather Service...http://water.weather.gov US Geological Survey...https://www.usgs.gov/water US Army Corps of Engineers...http://www.usace.army.mil ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving the National Weather Service and National Centers for Environmental Information, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA observation sites, state cooperative extension services, the USDA, USACE and USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... If you have questions or comments about this Drought Information Statement, please contact: Jonathan McGee National Weather Service 10009 General Mahone Highway Wakefield, VA 23888 Phone: 757-899-4200 Email: akq.webmaster@noaa.gov $$

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