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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 131357
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Piney Grove Preserve - Units 7/28...TNC
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
957 AM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on April 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Weak high pressure settles over the area this afternoon and evening.
Another system will affect the area bringing a chance for showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (37900 knot-ft).
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................36.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........58  57  55  53  50  46
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............62  64  65  66  66  66
RH..............60  56  54  52  50  50
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..7   7   8   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.11  11  13  11  11  10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 3.5 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.16  15  14  13  12  10
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............40  38  36  34  32  40
Haines index....4   3   3   3   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..45  45  43  42  41  38
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 6 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 8 mph shifting to the southeast.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (22500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................27 decreasing to 3.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........42  37  29  31  32  34  32  30  28  33  37  40
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............65  64  60  58  55  54  53  52  51  51  50  50
RH..............52  56  67  69  74  77  80  80  83  83  86  86
20 FT wind dir..NE  E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3
20 FT wind gust.8   6   5   5                           5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 2.2 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.N   NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.8   6   5   5   6   7   6   6   5   5   3   5
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   6   6
ADI.............27  3   2   2   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
Haines index....4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..23  11  4   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the morning. Rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph late
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 16 mph increasing to 20 to 21 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (63200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................7 increasing to 54.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........44     52     64     72     76     81
Weather cov.....                     S CHC  LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     10     20     60     60
Temp............50     52     61     66     68     70
RH..............89     86     70     61     57     57
20 ft wind......S 3    S 3    S 4    S 5    S 6    SE 5
20 ft wind gust.5      5      6      7      8      7
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    1900   2700   2900   3300
Transport wind..SE 7   SE 13  S 12   S 12   S 14   S 20
LVORI...........6      5      3      2      1      1
ADI.............3      9      22     27     33     49
Haines index....3      4      5      4      3      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2      3      19     28     35     56
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR

$$
Forecaster...ALBRIGHT
Requested by...Bobby Clontz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2108871.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/13/21
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL bclontz@tnc.org