776
FXUS61 KAKQ 201052
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
552 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Much colder weather is expected today into the middle of the
week. A low pressure system offshore of the Southeast coast
could also bring light snow to southeastern portions of the
area later Tuesday into Wednesday. Another low pressure system
could bring additional precipitation Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 550 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Cold temperatures today and tonight. Cold Weather Advisories
  have been issued for all of NE NC and portions of SE VA,
  including the Eastern Shore.

This morning, 994 mb low pressure is centered over northeast Nova
Scotia, while the trailing arctic cold front that moved through
yesterday extends SSW off the Southeast coast. Cold advection
continues across the CWA in the wake of the front and temps
have fallen below freezing for all areas, with lower- mid 20s
inland. Temps may fall a couple more degrees through 8 AM or so
and could see some localized teens across the N and NW. Wind
chills are generally in the teens.

The low and cold front will depart offshore through the day,
allowing for high pressure to slowly nudge in from the W. Despite
this, breezy/blustery conditions are expected through most of
the day as the pressure gradient remains compressed, especially
close to the coast. Temps only "warm" into the 20s and 30s
(coolest NW, less cold SE) and the wind will make it feel like
the teens and 20s through the afternoon hours. Skies average
sunny/mostly sunny W of I-95, with gradually increasing
stratocumulus closer to the Chesapeake Bay and Eastern Shore.
Very cold tonight as lows drop into the single digits and teens.
With diminishing winds inland, wind chills will be very close
to the actual air temps. However, a light breeze remains further
E and wind chills in the 0-10 degree range are expected,
coldest on the MD Eastern Shore. Have issued a Cold Weather
Advisory for all of our NE NC and SE VA counties (where the
criteria is 10 F) into coastal portions of the Middle Peninsula
and Northern Neck, eastward to the Eastern Shore. There will
also be an increase in high clouds very late tonight but little
impact is expected on temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Moderate confidence remains for light snow across far SE VA
  and NE NC. Forecast snowfall amounts have been reduced a bit
  from the earlier forecast.

- Very cold temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday remains very cold and high temps will likely be at or below
freezing for our entire forecast area. Highs may struggle to reach
25 F across the far N and on the Eastern Shore. Regarding the
snowfall potential Tuesday night into early Wednesday, there still
remains some chance for light snow along coastal VA and NE NC.
However, guidance continues to trend drier and the latest snowfall
forecast now has 0.5-1" from Southside Hampton Roads into
coastal NE NC. Similar the previous few days, the European
deterministic and ensemble suite remains the most aggressive
(though much less so than even yesterday) while the GEFS is the
driest. Have cut PoPs back further, especially inland where the
dry air looks to win out. Should note that we are still 48 hours
out and adjustments to the forecast are still likely. The
reasonable worst case scenario still highlights the potential
for a few to several inches of snow across the far SE and this
aligns with a few of the snowiest ensemble members in the EPS.
Overall, the threat for snow and impactful winter weather
continues to decrease, though has not completely diminished.
Should there be snow, it would be very fluffy/dry due to the
cold antecedent airmass and high snow-to-liquid ratios. Lows
Tuesday night will again be very cold, though there will be some
increase in cloud cover which could prevent temps from
completely falling out. For now, lows are in the teens for most
of the area, with lower 20s across the far SE and upper single
digits across the far N/NW. Wind chills bottom out between 0 and
10 for the whole CWA so Cold Weather Advisories are likely
Tuesday night for most of our area.

Any lingering snow from the low pressure system should be offshore
of the area by sunrise Wednesday and skies gradually become mostly
sunny. Will note that a few models hint a possible bay streamer
early Wednesday as the wind turns due N, which could produce
additional light snow or flurries across just downstream of the
bay. This potential remains uncertain but just something to
watch at this point. A very cold day is again expected and wind
chills may stay in teens for the entire day. Forecast overnight
lows again in the single digits and teens, though lighter winds
will tend to limit the wind chills from being much lower than
the air temp. Still, some areas will again probably need a Cold
Weather Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Another coastal low potentially brings additional wintry precip
along the coast Thursday into Friday, but confidence remains very
low at this time.

- Temperatures gradually moderate to end the week and into next
weekend.

A weak low pressure system still looks poised to develop along a
coastal trough Thursday to our S. There remains uncertainty on the
track and timing of the low and thus any precip associated with it.
Given the cold air in place, there could be additional wintry
precipitation. Most of the 00z guidance is not particularly enthused
about significant precipitation and the majority of the moisture
stays to our S and SE. Will maintain 20-30% PoPs across eastern VA
and NE NC Thursday, along with freezing rain/snow wording inland and
rain/snow wording along the coast. Again, uncertainty remains high
and expect PoPs and p-types to be refined in the coming days as
guidance comes into better agreement. Thursday`s highs remain
chilly and in the 30s, while most areas should reach the lower 40s
Friday. A more noticeable moderating trend is expected by the
weekend with highs possibly in the lower 50s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 550 AM EST Monday...

Skies have cleared areawide this morning and prevailing VFR is
expected through the 12z TAF period. Lower stratocumulus
develops closer to the coast later this morning and afternoon,
including at SBY, ORF, PHF, and possibly ECG. CIGs probably
stay just above MVFR per forecast soundings. Predominantly SKC
further inland toward RIC. Gusty NW winds expected through this
evening, averaging ~10 kt with gusts to ~20 kt...highest at SBY.
Light winds inland tonight w/ 5-10 kt at the coast. High clouds
also increase after 06z.

Outlook: Remaining dry with VFR through most of Tuesday, with a
chance for snow, mainly at the coast, returning late Tuesday
through Wednesday. It should be noted that forecast confidence
in this late Tue/Wed timeframe remains quite low.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages

- A northwest wind will remain breezy today.

- Periods of freezing spray will be possible tonight through
  Wednesday due to very cold temperatures in combination with
  elevated winds.

- Low pressure tracks off the Southeast coast Tuesday night
  into Wednesday.

993mb low pressure is centered near the southern tip of Nova
Scotia early this morning, with the trailing strong cold front
now well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. A NW wind of
25-30kt with occasional gusts to ~35kt persists across the
eastern Ches. Bay and ocean N of Cape Henry. Elsewhere, the wind
is mainly NW 15-25kt with gusts to ~30kt. Seas are mainly 4-5ft
nearshore and 5-7ft offshore, with 3-4ft waves in the Ches. Bay
and 4-5ft at the mouth of the Bay. The wind is expected to
gradually diminish early this morning. Therefore, the Gale
Warning will be replaced with SCAs for the Ches. Bay and ocean
from the VA/NC border to Parramore Is. The Gale Warning will
continue through 6 AM N of Parramore Is. The wind remains NW
15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt today and diminishes to 10- 15kt
with gusts to ~20kt later this aftn into tonight. Seas will
generally be 4-6ft through the morning, and then subside this
aftn and become 3-4ft by tonight. Waves in the Ches. Bay subside
to 2-3ft today into tonight.

High pressure nudges into the region Tuesday with the wind
diminishing and seas subsiding. Low pressure tracks off the
Southeast coast Tuesday night into Wednesday as strong high
pressure builds in from the NW. The less amplified trend has
continued and mainly SCAs are expected at this time, especially
for Ches. Bay, lower James, and ocean S of Parramore Is. with a
N wind of 15-25kt. Seas build to 4-5ft N to 5-6ft S late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. A weak area of low pressure slides off
the coast later in the week. However, conditions should remain
sub-SCA with a N wind becoming NW.

Freezing spray is likely during periods of strong wind tonight
through the middle of the week as an arctic airmass overspreads
the coastal waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for MDZ021>025.
NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for VAZ077-078-084>086-089-090-092-093-095>100-
     523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ631-
     632-634-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ633-638.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ635>638.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ