Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 241355 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 955 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and mainly dry conditions will persist through the weekend, although isolated to scattered snow showers will be possible tonight into Sunday morning as an upper level disturbance moves across the region. Dry conditions with slightly below normal temperatures expected early next week with high pressure in control. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 945 AM EDT...just some minor changes to current gridded database and forecast products, mainly to decrease cloud coverage and PoPs through early afternoon, and increase forecast max temps a bit. Current visible satellite imagery depicts mainly clear skies regionwide, with just some lingering high/mid level cloud patches departing NW CT. Latest 12Z sounding reveals considerable dry air in place, and latest RAP13 suggests weak midlevel ridging building across eastern NY behind yesterday`s departing shortwave, and the next one digging/approaching from Quebec. Low level lapse rates will steepen considerably this morning with the strong March sunshine, allowing for deep mixing with temps reaching the lower/mid 40s in valleys, and perhaps approaching 50 near POU. Eventually, clouds will gradually redevelop across higher terrain this afternoon, eventually expanding into valley areas toward sunset. Isolated sprinkles/flurries may also develop toward late afternoon, mainly for higher terrain areas (which would be mainly flurries). Also, similar to yesterday, with low levels remaining dry, probably more virga than much in the way of actual precipitation for valley areas this afternoon. Previous discussion below... Updated at 6:45 am. Clearing is working into eastern NY from the west. Weak ridging will bring a good deal of sunshine to much of the area this morning before clouds increase in association with upper level low pressure approaching from the north later this afternoon. Have updated grids to allow for more sunshine this morning. Previous discussion is below. Mid-level cloud deck persists across eastern New York and western New England early this morning however some drying can be seen over central New York and our area may see some sunshine later this morning as weak ridging builds east across the area. Any sunshine will be short- lived however as another surge of upper level low pressure is forecast to drop south toward the area from Quebec later this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will be similar to the last few days, ranging from the lower to mid 40s in the Hudson Valley to 30s in the mountains, which is about 5 degrees or so below normal. Mid and upper level low pressure digs south across the area tonight. Expect to see lots of echoes on radar later tonight but once again the low levels will be rather dry and much of this precipitation will not reach the ground. At this time we expect a few flurries from the Hudson Valley westward, while further east snow showers will be a bit heavier and more persistent and a light coating of snow could accumulate by daybreak Sunday over the Green mountains, Berkshires and Taconics. Low temperatures Saturday night will be mainly in the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Isolated to scattered snow showers will linger through Sunday morning, especially for areas south and east of Albany, where coverage is expected to be greater as the upper level low drifts southward across SE New York and southern New England. Dry conditions should return during the afternoon, as the upper low moves off shore and surface high pressure starts to ridge in from Quebec. It will be another cool day, with temperatures running around 5-10 degrees below normal. Dry conditions with clearing skies expected Sunday night, as upper level heights rise across the region, with strong surface high pressure building across SE Quebec and northern New England. It will be cold, with lows ranging from the teens across the mountains to lower to mid 20s in the valleys. More fair and dry weather will occur Monday through Monday night with high pressure remaining in control. An upper level ridge will become firmly established over the region, resulting in clear skies. Decent mixing will lead to efficient warming despite the cool start, with highs getting back near normal for this time of year, mainly in the 40s. Overnight lows will be cool again with the dry air mass remaining in place. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Temperatures will finally start to warm up during the long term period, with above normal readings expected by late in the work week. The period starts on Tuesday with high pressure moving east of the region, with a return southerly flow developing around the periphery of the departing high. This should result in a good warming response with sunshine expected through much of the day. High temps will be very close to normal for late March. A decaying frontal boundary will approach from the west Tuesday night into Wednesday, but should weaken considerably as it encounters a strong upper level ridge along the east coast. The best chance of showers will be for areas north and west of the Capital District, but only light QPF is expected. It will be mild with a continued southerly flow ahead of the decaying boundary, but mostly cloudy which will limit warming somewhat. Still, temps should reach or exceed 50 in much of the Hudson Valley Wednesday afternoon. The remnants of the front will become diffuse and stall across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Will mention slight to low chance pops during this time to account for a few possible light showers, but it should be mainly dry and mild during this time. The next chance of widespread rainfall looks to be Thursday night into Friday, as a wave of low pressure tracks NE along the old stalled frontal boundary. Model guidance (GFS/ECMWF) in somewhat good agreement with tracking the surface cyclone through our area. Due to southerly flow and good moisture transport, will have to watch for potentially moderate to perhaps heavy rainfall. This will depend on how quickly the wave moves through and the eventual moisture flux. Colder air is then expected to filter back into the region late Friday in wake of this system. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions expected today. Skies will be partly cloudy this morning becoming mostly cloudy later this afternoon with cigs lowering to 3-5 kft toward evening. Mostly cloudy conditions will continue tonight with a few flurries developing at GFL/ALB/PSF. Localized MVFR cigs and vsbys could occur in light snow showers. Winds will be northwest at 5 to 10 kts today and northerly at 5 to 10 kts tonight. Outlook... Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Cool and mainly dry conditions will persist through the weekend, although isolated to scattered snow showers will be possible tonight into Sunday morning as an upper level disturbance moves across the region. Dry conditions with slightly below normal temperatures expected early next week with high pressure in control. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are anticipated into the middle of next week, as mainly dry weather is expected. Isolated to scattered snow showers are possible tonight into Sunday morning, with little to no measurable precipitation. A slow diurnal snowmelt will occur over the next several days, with temperatures above freezing during the day and below freezing at night. There will be little impact on the waterways with minimal, if any, rises. A moderating trend is then expected for the middle to latter part of the upcoming work week, which may be accompanied by a period of widespread rainfall. Runoff will likely increase during this time, although it is uncertain how much rainfall will occur. River rises are likely during this time. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...MSE/KL SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...JPV AVIATION...MSE FIRE WEATHER...JPV HYDROLOGY...11/JPV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.