Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 162331 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 731 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A few snow showers and flurries will continue today as an upper level trough slowly exits the region. It will be partly cloudy, breezy and chilly through the weekend as Canadian high pressure builds in at the surface. A large storm may bring widespread snow to the area next week around Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 7 PM, Radar along with surface observations (and looking out our forecast office windows), light snow showers and/or flurries continue across the heart of the forecast area. Some upslope enhancements are seen in the NY Mesonet web cams as we will extend those PoPs/Wx grids a few more hours. Per the HRRR/X and NAM3km reflectivity forecasts, eventually the subsidence and drier air north of Lake Ontario will take its toll on the snow showers and flurries with a reduction in PoPs/Wx overnight. As for the winds, mixing layer heights remain elevated enough to warrant an increase in magnitudes through the evening and early overnight period. Otherwise, CU/SC cloud field will linger a few more hours, especially across the terrain. The low level dry air should work its way into the region overnight as the upper level trough continues to push east, allowing for a reduction in cloud cover. This, along with a fresh snow pack and cold advection, will lead to temperatures falling into teens in the high terrain and into the low 20s elsewhere. These temperatures are at least 5 degrees below normal for mid-March.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The weekend into the start of the new work week will be mostly dry but with temperatures well below normal. The upper level trough will finally lift northeast of the region on Saturday as heights increase and high pressure begins building southward towards the region. Prior to high pressure arriving, a cold front will drop through the forecast area with a few snow showers possible, mainly across the high terrain during the late morning and early afternoon hours. There isn`t much moisture associated with this frontal passage, but there is potential for up to an inch of snow accumulations in the higher elevations. Winds turn out of the north-northwest behind the front as high pressure builds in at the surface. This will allow for skies to clear, winds to go calm, and temperatures to plummet Saturday night. Overnight lows will potentially drop below zero for the highest peaks of the Adirondacks, with single digits to mid teens in the Mid-Hudson Valley. Sunday and Monday will be dry but unseasonably cold with surface high pressure nearby. Expect intervals of clouds and sun with afternoon temperatures generally in the mid 20s in the high terrain to mid to upper 30s in the Mid-Hudson Valley. Overnight lows will drop into the single digits to mid teens both nights. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The highlight for this period is the potential for yet another winter storm. Model disagreement remains high with the 12z runs, with both the GFS and ECMWF continuing to suppress things further south. What it looks like we can be increasingly more sure of is that it will be a mainly snow event given this southern shift. But it also looks like we should be realizing that we will probably be looking at less snow than we had thought even as recently as this morning, and probably a lot less overall than with recent storms. With the continued model difference and the continued suppression with each run, confidence is quite low about any outcome. Using a blend of the GFS and the ECMWF, chance category is as high as it gets, with around 45 pops across southern and eastern zones at the height...Wednesday into Wednesday night...with no higher than about 35% in the western Adirondacks. The GFS suggests QPF totals ranging from zero in the far nearly an inch and a half across the southeastern most portion of our zones!; the ECMWF gives us zero throughout! Temperatures moderate ever so slightly through the period, with highs starting out Tuesday from the mid 20s to mid 30s. Very slight, if any, warming will take place on Wednesday as the winter storm becomes more focused off the Virginia coast. The low tracks well off Nova Scotia into Thursday. Broad wraparound circulation will bring in a steady stream of northerly marine air behind the system as things begin to wind down, with highs Thursday from the upper 20s to upper 30s. With sunshine expected to start making a comeback at the end of the work week, and no really cold air in sight, high temperatures Friday should be mostly in the 30s and lower 40s. Low temperatures will average near normal for the most part, perhaps somewhat below normal Tuesday night. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 24 hour TAF period ending 00Z Sunday. With a cold northwest flow regime in place, there will still be periods of BKN cigs in the 3000-5000 ft AGL range so cannot rule out brief periods of MVFR this evening, especially at KPSF, with a VCSH (for snow) at KALB-KPSF. Clouds forecast to scatter out late this evening at KALB/KPOU/KGFL, but could linger at KPSF due to continued upslope flow. Any snow shower activity should be very light, flurries, with no accumulation. Winds will be northwest at 15-20 kt with gusts of 25-30 kt developing with deep mixing into this evening. Highest winds/gusts will be at KALB/KPSF with the W-NW wind direction. Winds should diminish to 5-15kts overnight, and continue out of the northwest. Northwest winds will again increase to 15 to 25 kts later Saturday morning as sunshine again creates a deep mixed boundary layer. Outlook... Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... The Fire Weather season has officially begun across eastern New York and western New England. Despite this, wintry weather is firmly in place across the region, which will mitigate any potential fire weather hazards for the time being. A few snow showers and flurries will continue today as an upper level trough slowly exits the region. It will be partly cloudy, breezy and chilly through the weekend as Canadian high pressure builds in at the surface. A large storm may bring widespread snow to the area next week around Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are anticipated through early next week. With an upper level trough in place, some additional light snow showers are possible across the high terrain of southern Vermont and the Adirondacks into tonight and again tomorrow afternoon thanks to a combination of upslope and lake- enhancement followed by a cold frontal passage. Total additional liquid equivalent amounts will be fairly light, generally a few tenths of an inch and limited to just the highest terrain. Otherwise, partly cloudy, yet chilly weather, is expected through at least Monday. A slow diurnal snowmelt is expected the next several days, where temperatures get above freezing during the day, and then fall below at night. The impacts on the waterways will be little to none with minimal, if any, rises. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND NEAR TERM...SND/BGM/JVM SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...ELH AVIATION...SND FIRE WEATHER...NAS/JVM HYDROLOGY...NAS/JVM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.