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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 111452
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1052 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Morning rain will give way to more dry time this afternoon with
perhaps some limited breaks of sun and milder temperatures as a
warm front lifts northward. As a strong storm system passes to
the west, additional rounds of rain and possibly some
thunderstorms are expected tonight into Friday, along with mild
and breezy conditions. Behind the storm`s cold front, cooler
temperatures will return for Saturday, along with some lingering
showers and windy conditions. More rain is expected on Sunday
into Sunday night as well.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 10:30 AM EDT, an area of steady rain continues to track
north and eastward this morning with the leading edge pushing
into the North Country and northern VT and the back edge pushing
through the Capital District. NYS mesonet and other observations
should rainfall amounts of generally range from 0.10 - 0.25
inches with locally higher amounts up to 0.25 - 0.40 inches in
the western Mohawk Valley into the southern Adirondacks. As the
best warm air advection and isentropic lifts escapes to our
north and east, we will enter into a drier break from late this
morning into the afternoon. A few isolated to scattered showers
are not ruled out this afternoon, especially in the higher
terrain areas, but any showers should be short-lived. In fact, a
few breaks of sun are possible by 2 - 6PM this afternoon. Given
the strong kinematic and warm air surging northward within the
warm sector (850 hPa isotherms +8C to +9C), any breaks of sun
can lead to a quick warm-up in sfc temperatures thanks to
increased insolation plus deeper boundary mixing from strong
winds in the low and mid-levels. Highs can sneak into the low to
mid-60s, especially in the Hudson Valley, should we see enough
sun this afternoon. Areas that remain cloudy (i.e southern
Greens and the southern Adirondacks) likely will be cooler and
struggle to rise out of the 50s. Otherwise, south-southeast sfc
winds are still expected to become a bit breezy this afternoon
(sustained 8 - 15kts and gusts up to 20-25kts) as the pressure
gradient tightens.

Previous discussion...As the best forcing shifts north of the
area, it should be fairly rain-free through the afternoon hours.
However, most areas should stay fairly cloudy, thanks to the
mild and moist southerly flow in place. Gusty southerly winds
will begin increasing for later today as well, as the pressure
gradient starts to increase over the area.

Temps will be in the mid 40s to low 50s to start the day and
will be holding fairly steady this morning within the rainfall.
However, they should increase this afternoon thanks to the
southerly flow. Even with the clouds, max temps should reach the
upper 50s to mid 60s in many areas.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As low pressure lifts across the Great Lakes, bands of showers
will spread back across the area for tonight. The low level jet
will increase to 50 to 70 kts across the area at 850 hpa from a
southerly direction, which will lead to some additional upslope
for the high terrain (especially the Catskills). Although the
precip won`t be steady or continuous, there looks to be several
batches of precip that quickly lift northward across the area.
00z SPC HREF suggests rainfall rates could be more moderate to
heavy at times for the Catskills, likely due to the upslope
enhancement. Some elevated instability could lead to some
embedded thunder as well, mainly within the heaviest showers
across southern and western areas.

It will be rather breezy overnight, with gusts over 30 mph at
times. However, the strongest winds aloft probably won`t be able
to mix down thanks to a strong low-level inversion in place.
Still, it will be fairly breezy, especially within the Hudson
Valley, where the southerly flow will be funneled. Temps won`t
be falling much tonight and will hold fairly steady in the 50s
for most areas.

The storm`s cold front will be passing through early on Friday.
One last batch of heavier showers (and a rumble of thunder in
spots) will accompany the front during the morning hours. It
looks fairly mild early in the day with temps in the 50s and 60s
ahead of the front as well. It will remain fairly breezy again
through the day on Friday with south to southwest winds, with
some gusts at times over 30 mph.

There will probably be a lull in the precip from about Friday
afternoon into much of Friday night. However, another round of
showers looks to pass across the area for late Friday night and
into much of Saturday, as the upper level trough and wraparound
precip around the departing surface low allows for some
additional light precip. There could be some wet snow or
graupel that mixes in for the highest terrain of the western
Adirondacks as well, otherwise p-type will just be rain, as the
surface should still be mild enough for rain for most places. As
cooler air works into the region behind the departing storm,
temps will be down into the 30s and 40s on Friday night and only
reach the 40s for most spots on Saturday. In addition, the
cooling temps aloft and strong pressure gradient will allow for
winds to pick up again by Saturday. Westerly winds may gusts up
to 40 mph by Saturday, especially for the afternoon hours. Some
clearing may finally occur by Saturday night, with the breeze
gradually diminishing and temps falling into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Behind exiting upper troughing, a fast-moving shortwave will pass
over the region Sunday into Monday, bringing another round of rain
showers Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Temperatures look to
rebound to near seasonal norms, reaching highs in the upper 40s to
mid 50s in high terrain and mid 50s to low 60s at lower elevations,
while overnight lows Sunday night remain mild, in the upper 30s to
upper 40s across the region.

Upper-level ridging and surface high pressure look to slowly build
in from the west through the first half of the workweek, leading to
dry weather Monday into Tuesday. Developing upper troughing over the
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will drive southwesterly flow in the
mid-levels associated with an approaching warm front, while also
allowing 850-hPa temperatures to rise from around 0C on Sunday to
near 10C by Wednesday. Surface temperatures will similarly trend
warmer, reaching afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s for most on
Wednesday, while the highest terrain of the Adirondacks and southern
Greens see upper 50s. Nighttime lows also trend warmer, rising to
the mid 40s to mid 50s across the region by Wednesday night. Rain
showers ahead of the warm front look to arrive from the southwest
sometime late Tuesday into Wednesday, with chances for precipitation
continuing through much of Wednesday as the cold front
approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Rain showers ahead of an approaching warm front
will have spread across the region by 12Z Thursday with MVFR vsbys
and largely MVFR/low-VFR cigs. Some IFR cigs may persist at PSF
through this morning. A few persistent areas of patchy fog or mist
may result in IFR vsbys ahead of rainfall onset, but will quickly
improve once precipitation begins. A break in rainfall will spread
from south to north late this morning into the afternoon, beginning
15-18Z Thu through around 00Z Fri, resulting in a return to VFR
vsbys while MVFR/low-VFR cigs persist.

A second round of rainfall ahead of an approaching cold front will
spread southwest to northeast this evening, around 00Z Fri. Steady
rain will bring a return to MVFR vsbys and continued MVFR or
possibly IFR cigs through the remainder of the overnight period to
12Z Fri.

Calm to light easterly winds at 5 kt or less this morning will
steadily increase out of the southeast to 8-12 kt by 18Z Thu, and
subsequently to 10-20 kt after 00Z Fri. Gusts will increase this
afternoon, between 18 Thu-00Z Fri, to 15-25 kt, and further to 20-35
kt after 00Z Fri. Strong, gusty winds then persist through the
remainder of the TAF period. As a low-level jet moves over the
region this evening, low-level wind shear will reach 30-45 kt out of
the south-southeast after 21Z Thu-00Z Fri.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 35
kts. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A storm system will bring periods of rainfall to the region for
today through tomorrow night. The steadiest and heaviest
rainfall looks to mainly occur tonight into Friday morning. Most
areas are projected to get 0.75 to 1.50 inches in total,
although locally higher amounts are possible on south or
southeast-facing slopes in the eastern Catskills and southern
Adirondacks.

Based on this rainfall forecast, along with snowmelt in higher
terrain where a snowpack is still present, ponding of water on
roadways or nuisance flooding of urban, low- lying, or other
flood-prone areas is possible tonight into tomorrow. Rises on
area rivers and streams is likely, with ensemble guidance
suggesting there is the potential for rivers to reach action or
possibly minor flood stage. River observations and forecasts can
be monitored using the National Water Prediction Service
located at water.noaa.gov.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Picard
HYDROLOGY...Frugis