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333
FXUS61 KALY 300814
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
414 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level disturbance and weak cold front will allow for
showers and scattered thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and
evening. Drier weather will return for Wednesday with seasonable
temperatures.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Showers and thunderstorms from the Lake George Saratoga Region
and southern VT will exit through daybreak. Mostly cloudy sky
much of the day with some breaks in the clouds in the
eastern Catskills, Schoharie valley and western Mohawk Valley.

Upper energy and a weak cold front will support development of
showers and thunderstorms in western and central NY midday and
early afternoon. The leading edge of low level cold advection,
boundary layer wind shift and instability will support a line or
band of showers and thunderstorms with small hail, gusty winds
and locally heavy rain. An elevated mixed layer is expected over
our region this afternoon, especially from the eastern Catskills
through mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshires, which
again, suggests some hail, gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

Extensive clouds will limit warming today, with highs mainly in
the 60s, with around 70 to lower 70s potentially in parts of the
Schoharie Valley and western Mohawk Valley.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Showers and thunderstorms linger through tonight with
decreasing coverage through the night. There could be just some
isolated showers early Wednesday morning, but the weak cold
advection, becoming neutral to weak warm advection by Wednesday
evening, and lingering upper energy and moisture will result in
a very slow break up of the clouds through the day Wednesday.
Highs Wednesday in the 60s to near 70.

Leading edge of warm advection and then passage of another weak
cold front may support an isolated shower in northern areas to
southern VT Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Front exits
Thursday morning with breezy northwest winds by afternoon and
better clearing for at least some sunshine. Highs Thursday in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Remaining dry Thursday night with lows
by early Friday morning in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Long term period begins at 12z Friday with an upper ridge axis over
western NY. On the downstream side of the ridge, high pressure will
be located to our northeast. Subsidence from these features will
keep us dry Friday. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s from the
Hudson Valley westward, but in western New England low-level
east/southeast flow around the surface high will help to keep
temperatures slightly cooler with highs in the 50s (terrain) to 60s
(lower elevations). Friday night remains dry with lows mainly in the
40s.

For the weekend, An surface low becomes vertically stacked in south-
central Canada, and its occluded front slowly tracks towards our
region. There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of the front,
but with the front running into the upper ridge and the best upper
forcing well west of our region, will continue to lean towards a
slower solution. If the slower solution does indeed verify, much of
the day Saturday may be dry, especially east of the Hudson Valley.
Chances for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder should increase
Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures will be cooler over the
weekend, with highs mainly in the 50s and 60s during the day and
overnight lows in the 40s.

For the beginning of next week, things look to dry out Monday as a
ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. With more sun,
temperatures will be warmer, possibly climbing into the 70s again
for our valley areas. Another warm front may approach our region
from the southwest Tuesday, which could bring some additional shower
chances. FOr day 8-14, the CPC is expecting near to slightly above
normal temperatures and above normal precip.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 06z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions as of 115 AM EDT, with
MVFR cigs at POU. Expecting conditions to deteriorate through the
next several hours at all TAF sites. An area of showers and
thunderstorms looks to impact GFL with MVFR cigs and MVFR to IFR
vsbys through around 8z. These showers should remain north of the
other TAF sites, but VFR conditions trend to MVFR within the next
few hours as low clouds develop. Some pockets of IFR cigs are also
possible, and have mainly wrapped this into tempo groups, except at
PSF where confidence is high enough to include prevailing IFR.
Another round of showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm look
to impact GFL/ALB/PSF this morning for a few hours between 10 and
15z, and have indicated borderline MVFR/IFR vsbys and cigs during
this batch of showers.

Once the showers move out between 13-15z, mainly dry conditions and
VFR vsbys expected through late this afternoon. Cigs should trend
towards low-end VFR at ALB/GFL this afternoon but likely remain MVFR
at POU/PSF. Then, late this afternoon and evening, another round of
showers and thunderstorms is expected. Have used prob30 groups to
highlight this threat. Will likely see MVFR cigs and MVFR to IFR
cigs and vsbys with this line of showers/storms. Once these
showers/storms move to the east, we will likely see MVFR and
possibly IFR conditions linger through at least the end of the TAF
period.

Winds will be from the east/northeast at around 5 kt through early
this morning, then switch to the southeast at 5-10 kt with some
gusts of 15-20 kt from mid-morning through this evening. Behind the
line of showers and storms this evening, winds remain southeasterly
at 5-10 kt at ALB and PSF and become light and variable at
GFL/POU.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Showers and thunderstorms north of I-90 overnight have produced
a half inch to inch of rain with very localized amounts up to 2
inches. More showers and thunderstorms are expected by later in
the day over the entire area as a frontal boundary approaches
from the west.

The low level flow out of the south will bring in plenty of
moisture into the region ahead of the boundary, although
dewpoints and PWATs will not be overly excessive for this time
of year. Still, the frontal boundary should be strong enough to
allow for a fairly widespread areas of showers and
thunderstorms.

Some of these showers and thunderstorms may contain heavy
downpours, which could lead to ponding of water in urban or low
lying areas. WPC has placed much of the region within a Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall during this period. Overall,
rainfall amounts will generally be under an inch and no flooding
of main stem rivers is expected.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Main
HYDROLOGY...NAS