Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 261126
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
526 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021

.SHORT TERM (today through tomorrow night)...

Not a lot has changed regarding this next system for
today/tonight. We did bump up snowfall amounts slightly for some
areas in the northwest, which ended up needing to expand the
winter weather advisory to a few more counties bringing the total
to 4 counties. Generally speaking, 1" - 2" of snowfall is expected
in the northwest, while the rest of the Panhandles could see a
dusting to around 0.5" - 0.9" of snow. However, areas in the
southeastern third of the Texas Panhandle may not see any snowfall
at all.

Water vapor imagery indicates a closed low advancing into the Four
Corners region pulling in moisture from the Pacific. This low is
expected to eject over the Rockies later today. Ahead of the low,
snowfall is expected to start later this morning as forcing
increases. Main driving factors for forcing will be positive
vorticity advection ahead of the upper low, left exit region of
an upper level jet, frontogenesis seen roughly in the lower levels
up to about H85, and isentropic lift at the 285K layer. While
forcing is not limited, the available moisture with this system
will be somewhat limited. Forecast soundings indicate the
dendritic growth zone (DGZ) will be saturated for at least a few
hours while coupled with decent forcing. Snowfall rates of around
0.1"/hr to 0.5"/hr are most likely, but there could be a brief
period where rates approach 1.0"/hr (very localized). HRRR
depicts this best as it tries to develop a narrow band of snow
from roughly Dalhart to Guymon where 1.0"/hr of snow would
certainly be possible based on forecast soundings showing strong
omega within the DGZ. Overall, 1-2 inches of snowfall seems
reasonable for a broad brush of snowfall amounts in the
northwest, but a localized band of higher amounts could come to
fruition if the 1.0"/hr develops. These higher rates look best
somewhere along and north/west of a line from Dalhart to Guymon.
In other words, snowfall may come more from a shower type mode
versus stratiform; therefore, would not be surprised if there was
some semblance of a convective type of snowfall given the lapse
rates and omega through the DGZ. System is somewhat progressive
and exits quickly Tuesday night. After 9pm, snowfall will be
confined to the far north and northeast (OK Panhandle). Snowfall
may linger in the northeast after midnight, but most--if not all--
of the snowfall should end by midnight.

Guerrero

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday Night...
High pressure will continue slowly build over the central CONUS
with warmer southwest flow ahead of another weather system.
Temperatures look to be in the 50s on Thursday, with partly cloudy
skies. Even warmer air will continue to be drawn up on Friday,
along with some Pacific & Gulf moisture. Showers will be possible
across the southern and eastern Panhandles Friday night into
Saturday morning. Breezy downslope winds around 15 to 25 mph is
expected on Friday. Will keep an eye on Friday and
Saturday for possible elevated Fire Weather concerns. The ERC`s
are in pretty good shape, below 25th percentile given the recent
rain, and possible snow to some of the Panhandles expected
Tuesday. RH`s will start to come down in to the high teens to
lower 20 percent range. Open wave trof expected to move through
quickly and by Saturday afternoon breezy northwest winds behind
the cold front will be possible. Given the timing of the front
looks to be early on Saturday there will still be some heating and
mixing behind the cold front. With a decent jet aloft mixing those
stronger winds down is certainly possible. Sustained winds could
be in the 20 to 30 mph range out of the northwest with higher
gusts. Northwest flow will continue behind the system on Sunday as
well and even slightly cooler air is expected to funnel into the
Panhandle region, but temperatures should still be in the 50s.
Temperatures expected to warm a bit on Monday as high pressure
starts to rebuild over the Four Corners region and push some of
that warmer air north towards the Panhandles.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs:

Conditions are going to deteriorate this morning, and we will be in
MVFR to IFR conditions through most of this TAF cycle for a
combination of low clouds and low visibility (SN and/or BR). The
tricky part about this TAF cycle is the timing of snowfall to impact
the terminals. KDHT and KGUY have a better chance for snowfall, but
given the low level saturation in the atmosphere, all three
terminals will have the chance for IFR conditions due to low clouds
and limited visibilities. These conditions could very well creep
into the next cycle as well. Overall, unfavorable flying conditions
are expected for the next 24 hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                44  21  46  27  55 /  40  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  29  13  35  20  54 /  70  50   0   0   0
Boise City OK              28  13  43  25  54 /  80  20   0   0   0
Borger TX                  43  22  46  29  59 /  40  20   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              46  19  49  26  59 /  50  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  47  21  48  25  55 /  40   5   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               42  24  43  25  53 /  20  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 38  13  46  24  56 /  70  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  29  14  41  23  57 /  60  30   0   0   0
Hereford TX                49  21  50  25  56 /  40   5   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                36  18  38  23  54 /  40  40   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   41  20  43  25  56 /  30  20   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                42  23  43  23  52 /  10  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              44  25  43  23  52 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the
     following zones: Dallam...Sherman.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the
     following zones: Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

24/89/24


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