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000
FXUS64 KAMA 061133
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
633 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Upper level trough over the CA coast will continue to linger for
the early to mid part of the week. This will continue to spin
moisture up to the NM/western TX area as a well amplified high
sits over the central Plains. In general this pattern doesn`t
favor precipitation over the Panhandles, but given the high
moisture content at the surface, we can heat up and get popcorn
thunderstorms that will not last long, but will also have very
little storm motion, so brief periods of moderate to heavy rain.
So localized flooding will still be a concern. The main moisture
channel squeezed between these two systems will be over NM and up
into the CO and UT area. Now later tonight there is a potential
wave moving though and a band of showers/storms may move
through the western Panhandles and should diminish out as it
approaches Amarillo.

As we move into Wednesday the upper trough over the west will
start to take a negative tilt and as a much deeper trough over the
northeast CONUS takes a very strong positive tilt. This will
shift that channel of moisture more over the Panhandles. We are
looking at another wave to move through on Wednesday afternoon.
This lift with very marginal shear will allow for a low end severe
threat with storms on Wednesday. But it does look like we`ll be
more scattered to widespread with the storms on Wednesday. The
main concern with Wednesday will be more of a flooding threat as
storms could produce very heavy rainfall.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Thursday the low over the west will retrograde north, and that
will allow a cutoff of the moisture to the Panhandles, in which
the chances for showers/storms really comes to the north and
eastern Panhandles as weak impulses clip the area under the
northerly flow just to the east. The Panhandles will remain under
the center of the ridge with making it difficult for storms to
form, other than that northerly flow to the east. A wave will move
down the lee side of the main ridge on Friday and be absorbed
into the main large scale trough over the northeast and there`s a
chance for showers and storms to return to the Panhandles thanks
to the wave approaching. Things get a little tricky Saturday
through Monday as there`s a hint at the low over the west
returning and as it dives south a break in the precipitation would
occur on Saturday as zonal flow will hold for the Panhandles.
This would also bring some warmer temperatures that may approach
the 90s. There`s a lot going on beyond Saturday that suggests the
pattern that we`ve been stuck in will change, but it would be very
hard to determine at this time what we`re looking at as far as
the weather on Sunday and Monday. Right now holding about a 20-30
percent chance of pops seems reasonable as we await the pattern
transition and see just what, if any areas, will pick up
precipitation late int the weekend into early next week.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

VFR conditions will likely prevail at all TAF sites for the
majority of the TAF period. Isolated storms possible 21-03z across
the Panhandles. Confidence is not high enough to note thunder in
TAFs, will likely need amendments if it looks like storms with
threaten that TAF sites. Additionally, thunder may be possible in
the 0-6z time period at KDHT and KAMA with a line of storms. That
may be able to be timed into the TAFs with later package
issuances. Possible brief restrictions in the next 2 to 3 hours
for low clouds and vis, but again too low confidence to put in
TAFs, and can be dealt with via amendments.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                80  60  80  57 /  20  30  30  40
Beaver OK                  85  59  84  58 /  20  10  20  30
Boise City OK              78  57  79  55 /  30  40  40  30
Borger TX                  85  62  85  60 /  20  30  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              82  60  82  57 /  20  40  40  30
Canyon TX                  80  59  80  56 /  20  40  30  40
Clarendon TX               82  61  80  59 /  20  30  20  30
Dalhart TX                 78  57  79  54 /  30  50  40  40
Guymon OK                  82  59  81  57 /  20  30  20  30
Hereford TX                81  58  82  56 /  20  40  30  40
Lipscomb TX                85  59  84  58 /  20  10  20  30
Pampa TX                   82  60  82  58 /  20  20  20  30
Shamrock TX                85  61  83  60 /  20  10  20  30
Wellington TX              87  62  85  62 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89