Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KAMA 262042
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
242 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2020

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday

Shortwave ridging tonight followed by an upper trough approaching
from the Intermountain West and Rockies into far West Texas
Monday. Surface low over eastern New Mexico tonight with surface
trough from the Big Bend of southwest Texas northward across
eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado. Surface low over eastern
New Mexico deepens Monday and tracks east into the Texas South
Plains region Monday. The surface low will drag a backdoor cold
front west and south across the Panhandles by 00Z Tuesday. Middle
and high level cloudiness will increase by Monday afternoon with
the winds shifting from southeast and south tonight 5 to 10 mph or
less to the northeast and east to southeast 10 to 20 mph Monday
as the backdoor cold front surges through the forecast area. Low
level moisture advection will allow dew points to increase into
the lower and middle 30s Monday with lower clouds increasing by
late in the day Monday.

Schneider

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday

The next system to bring precipitation to the FA is still on
track for Monday night into Tuesday morning. Precipitation will
start out as rain and further into the night turn to snow as lower
to mid levels cool below freezing. The questionable factor for
amounts of snow accumulations will still be the surface
temperatures.

Current satellite analysis depicts this next mid level shortwave
coming on shore in central California at the time of this writing.
A ridge over the Intermountain West continues to bring northwest
flow aloft to the combined Panhandles. The shortwave is set to be
over the New Mexico/Texas state line by 06Z with Precip in the
eastern and northern quadrant of the low pressure. The Nam is the
first to want to close the low off as well as have it slightly
further south and progged to move east just south of the Texas
Panhandle. As far as the ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian go, they keep
the trough more open as it passes over the FA. There will be
enough forcing for showers from vorticity advection along with
possible frontogenesis. Surface temperatures are forecasted to
remain above freezing with the exception of the Oklahoma Panhandle
and northern Texas Panhandle. Even then, these areas will only be
about a degree or two fahrenheit below freezing for an hour or
two. The question is how much snow will accumulate as much of the
snow that falls will melt on contact with the exception of grassy
and elevated surfaces.

As of right now the best chances for one to two inches is in the
Oklahoma Panhandle up against the Kansas state line. The northern
half of the Texas Panhandle could see some accumulations less than
and inch while areas in the southern Texas Panhandle will see the
snow melt. The column of air above the surface is looking to be
just cold enough for the snow fall with no warm nose to worry
about freezing rain. A short period of sleet cannot be ruled out
especially in the far northeast. If the timing is right and
frontogenesis sets up to produce some higher snowfall rates some
accumulations in the warmer areas could happen faster than the
melting takes place.

As far as the QPF goes, looking at around 0.40 inches across the
the central and eastern Texas Panhandle. Have limited the QPF to
0.40 as some higher amounts were coming in from deterministic
models like the GFS. However, if you look at the GEFS plumes, the
deterministic GFS is way higher than a majority of the ensemble
members for Amarillo. In other areas the deterministic GFS was
only slightly higher than the mean but several members were still
showing less.

Temperatures should rebound into the upper 40s on Tuesday with
much colder night time temperatures going into Wednesday morning.
Highs will reach the 50s on Wednesday before another system
affects the area. This trough is looking to be far enough south
that only a slight chance PoP will be in the western and southern
CWA. Snow may be possible in the overnight hours with this system
but moisture seems to be limited. Morning lows Thursday will be
comparable to Wednesday morning in the 20s. The same goes for
Friday morning. Highs in the low 50s on Friday and upper 50s on
Saturday.

Hoffeditz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                34  60  33  47  28 /   0   0  60  40   0
Beaver OK                  29  58  28  48  22 /   0   0  80  40   0
Boise City OK              27  54  28  48  24 /   0   5  60  20   0
Borger TX                  36  62  33  51  28 /   0   0  70  40   0
Boys Ranch TX              30  59  31  51  26 /   0   0  60  30   0
Canyon TX                  32  62  32  48  27 /   0   0  40  40   0
Clarendon TX               37  62  35  48  29 /   0   0  50  50   0
Dalhart TX                 29  55  28  49  22 /   0   0  60  20   0
Guymon OK                  29  57  28  49  23 /   0   0  80  30   0
Hereford TX                32  62  32  48  27 /   0   0  40  30   0
Lipscomb TX                33  60  31  46  25 /   0   0  80  60   5
Pampa TX                   35  60  32  48  27 /   0   0  70  50   0
Shamrock TX                35  63  32  48  26 /   0   0  70  70   5
Wellington TX              36  63  33  49  27 /   0   0  60  60   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/36


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.