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000
FXAK68 PAFC 281135
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...

An upper level ridge is the main weather feature over Southcentral
Alaska today and should usher in mostly sunny skies for most of
today for the region. Even Kodiak Island should finally get into
some sunshine. The Copper River Basin is sitting at the periphery
of this ridge and therefore, a weak trough over the Yukon is
helping to keep some clouds over the Wrangell Mountains which will
build into showers this afternoon and evening as well as
tomorrow. These showers should remain over elevated terrain both
today and tomorrow. There is a question in how far westward these
showers are able to develop. Hi-res models show less support for
them making it over the Talkeetna Mountains this afternoon, but
are giving a little better chance for Monday. However, it is more
likely that Tuesday will be a better day for widespread shower
development over the mountains as the ridge is breaking down by
then and there will be an upper level trough moving into
Southcentral from the west Tuesday night.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday morning)...

Clear and calm weather will continue for today as an upper-level
ridge remains over most of the mainland. Albeit quiet, the central
and eastern Bering Sea will continue to see low stratus and misty
conditions as flow remains very weak throughout the atmosphere. As
the ridge continues moving eastward on Monday, southerly flow in
the middle to upper-levels will allow for clouds to build back in
over the southwestern mainland. Meanwhile, a weak low pressure
system south of the central Aleutian Chain this morning will
continue to move to the east through Monday. Its front will clip
the central/eastern Chain and especially the southern Alaska
Peninsula (AKPEN) from west to east. A higher likelihood of
precipitation with this system resides over the southern AKPEN for
Monday morning into the afternoon hours as the low deepens
slightly on its eastward journey.

A stronger system arrives to the western Bering Sea and Aleutian
Chain for Monday. Widespread gales with storm-force gusts are
expected for the marine zones of the western Bering Sea and the
coastal zones of the western Aleutians for Monday. The storm,
still west of the Chain will begin to occlude late Monday into
Tuesday and the front will weaken as it moves eastward Tuesday.
Another low pressure system looks to develop along this front
Tuesday evening as it approaches the Pribilof Island and eastern
Aleutian Chain Tuesday evening into the day on Wednesday. The best
corridor of enhanced precipitation with this new southcentral
Bering low looks to be along the eastern Aleutians to southern
AKPEN Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The southwestern
mainland looks to see scattered showers in conjunction with weak
shortwaves moving overhead for Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

A broad area of upper level low pressure extends across the
Bering through the forecast period. Several closed centers with
their associated fronts rotate over or to the South along the
Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska and weaken slowly. A separate
low center travels across the Northern Mainland into the Arctic
through Friday, with a trough stretching back to the Bering low. A
weak ridge extending over the Mainland from Canada takes over
Interior weather through Thursday, then weakens through Saturday
as the Bering low slips into Western Alaska. Features overall are
best forecast using ensemble means, with fair confidence allowing
for some minor variations with the embedded systems moving
through.

The weather forecast opens with a Central Aleutian low and front,
pushing over the AKPEN, Kodiak Island and across the Gulf by
Saturday. Areas of locally heavy rains and some gusty winds spread
Eastward across Kodiak Island late Thursday into Friday and
across Southcentral Alaska through the week. A second and more
potent low and front moving out of Kamchatka enters the Western
Aleutians and Bering late Wednesday. Gusty winds and rain expand
over the region as the low moves to the Eastern Aleutians and
frontal weather spreads over much of the Bering and Western Alaska
by Saturday. Considerable cloudiness and rainfall will continue
over the entire Aleutian chain for the weekend.


-Kutz

$$

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Light winds will persist
through today though there is a chance for a Southeasterly Turnagain
Arm wind to develop this evening into the overnight hours.

&&
$$