Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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023
FNUS53 KAPX 190715
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
315 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...A bit gusty today with a chance for rain late tonight into
Sunday...

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure will lift through Manitoba today, before
settling into Hudson Bay tonight into Sunday. The system cold front
will be arriving over that time, resulting in chances for showers
for much of the region. Southerly winds ahead of the front will be
gusty today, with lighter winds in a weaker gradient set for Sunday.
Fairly brisk conditions are expected for much of the next work week,
with several chances for showers, as a strong storm system will
impact the region.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-192000-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
315 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (300).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 3 mph shifting to the west around
                    6 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-192000-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
315 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....56-61...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (230).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....60-65...except 51-56 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 3 mph shifting to the west in the
                    afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-192000-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
315 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (230).
Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....42-47...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except 3 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 12 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (90).
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 3 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-192000-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
315 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (210).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 60-65 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (90).
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 3 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-192000-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
315 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (90).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....41-46.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (110).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 3 mph shifting to the northwest in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMD



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