Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 250710
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Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
310 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

...Clearing and becoming a little gusty this afternoon...

.DISCUSSION...A frontal boundary draped across northern lower
Michigan will lift north as a warm front this morning, while deep
low pressure in nrn Canada will drag a cold front into nrn Michigan
late tonight and Saturday. Skies are expected to clear up through
today and winds will become a little gusty out of the SW in a
tightening pressure gradient ahead of the front. There is a chance
for some showers with this front late tonight through Saturday while
winds die down a bit, but an area of low pressure advances into the
region Saturday night. This ramps winds back up again and brings a
better shot at showers and potential storms. No humidity issues.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-252015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
310 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....75-80...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......35 percent drier...except 42 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1060).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....73-78...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (470).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-252015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
310 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Areas of fog
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
   24 HR Trend......30 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (970).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (630).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-252015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
310 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....75-80...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent drier...except 27 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1050).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (650).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-252015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
310 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....75-80...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 23 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1090).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (690).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-252015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
310 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....75-80.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1270).
Mixing Height.......6000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 18 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....75-80.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (830).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

SMD


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