Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 131858
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
258 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...Showers and Storms through Tuesday...

.DISCUSSION...

Chances for intermittent showers and storms tonight through early
Tuesday morning. Marginally severe hail and winds could be with a
few storms Monday. Heavy rain will likely be seen with stronger
storms. Humidity values remain high through Wednesday with warm
temperatures. Heat indices could reach into the low to mid 90s
Monday where skies can clear. Winds remain light until a cold
front passage Tuesday which will move drier air over the state.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-140815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
258 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 69-74 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (411).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (15).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....84-89...except 74-79 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent...except 56-61 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (284).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-140815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
258 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (36).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1200. Chance of showers.
                    Chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......24 percent wetter...except 17 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (460).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.15 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2400. Chance of showers.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (15).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....85-90...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (241).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-140815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
258 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (34).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.14 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms until 1200, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
   24 HR Trend......26 percent wetter...except 39 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (339).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.13 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (15).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....86-91...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (303).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-140815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
258 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (39).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.25 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Showers likely
                    until 1200. Chance of thunderstorms. Chance of
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 73-78 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......30 percent wetter...except 37 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (416).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.16 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (14).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....85-90...except 78-83 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent...except 61-66 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier...except 11 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (408).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-140815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
258 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (37).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1200. Chance of showers.
                    Chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (526).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.14 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....86-91.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (451).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

ELD