Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 201927
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
327 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...Rain chances continue and increasing winds...

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure in the Central Plains will continue to
deepen into tonight, as it lifts into the nrn Great Lakes. The
system`s warm front will continue to lift through nrn Michigan
late today and into this evening, with a cold front arriving
Friday morning. Rain showers will become more isolated/scattered
later today through Friday. Winds will be increasing later today
through tonight, and will remain stout/gusty through Friday. High
pressure then settles in later Friday night and holds through the
weekend.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-210815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
327 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Patchy fog.
                    Chance of thunderstorms until 2400. chance of
                    showers. slight chance of thunderstorms after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 15 mph shifting to the south after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.07-0.26 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1200. chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........63-68 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 15 to 20 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1590).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 24 mph increasing to west
                    around 39 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.12 in.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....38-43...except 45-50 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......24 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 15 mph becoming north
                    around 5 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 40
                    mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (90).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 33 mph becoming north around
                    18 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......34 percent drier...except 26 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (290).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 3 mph shifting to the south
                    around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-210815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
327 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Patchy fog.
                    Chance of showers and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south after midnight.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 15 mph shifting to the south around
                    12 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.09-0.27 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent drier...except 21 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1880).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 21 mph increasing to west
                    around 39 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....39-44...except 47-52 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......23 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (270).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 36 mph becoming north around
                    21 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (230).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 9 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 3 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-210815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
327 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Patchy fog until
                    2400. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph shifting to the south
                    around 18 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.06-0.17 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1200. chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........65-70 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 15 to 20 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1390).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 24 mph increasing to west
                    around 36 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....37-42...except around 51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......27 degrees cooler...except 21 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 11 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 28 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (260).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 30 mph becoming north around
                    18 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......34 percent drier...except 26 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (270).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the south in the
                    afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-210815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
327 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2400. slight chance of
                    showers. chance of thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph shifting to the south
                    around 15 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.07-0.18 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1200. chance of showers.
Max Temperature.....Around 70.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer...except 4 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent drier...except 25 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1300).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 24 to 33 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....38-43.
   24 HR Trend......27 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 15 mph becoming north
                    around 5 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 35
                    mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (160).
Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 30 mph becoming north around
                    18 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......29 percent drier...except 17 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (240).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the south in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-210815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
327 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Patchy fog.
                    Chance of showers until 2400. slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. slight chance of showers after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 9 mph shifting to the south around
                    12 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.09-0.29 in.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of showers
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1600).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 21 mph increasing to west
                    around 36 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......25 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 15 mph becoming north
                    around 5 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 30
                    mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (140).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 33 mph becoming north around
                    18 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (190).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the south
                    around 3 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

TL


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