Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 151924
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
324 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

...Light rain chances through Sunday...

.DISCUSSION...While critical/near-critical humidities will continue this evening,
rain chances will arrive from west to east and continue through
Sunday. Mainly light rain is expected with totals near 0.10" or
less. RHs are expected to remain above critical/near-critical
thresholds into early this week with increasing moisture across the
Great Lakes. Mainly southerly winds are expected into early this
week as well with gusts near 15 during the afternoon. Highs in the
mid 60s are anticipated Sunday before warming up into the mid/upper
70s on Monday. Highs in the 70s and low 80s should be common across
northern Michigan this upcoming week, but increasing moisture will
help keep RH concerns at bay.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-160815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
324 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the south
                    after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then slight chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....62-67...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......31 percent wetter...except 36 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (260).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent...except 47-52 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (380).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the west in the
                    afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-160815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
324 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 77-82 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 10 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then slight chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....62-67...except 51-56 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent.
   24 HR Trend......31 percent wetter...except 26 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (260).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 3 mph shifting to the south around
                    9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78...except around 60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer...except 5 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier...except 5 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (610).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-160815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
324 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2400, then chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer...except 6 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 11 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then slight chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....62-67...except around 51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler...except 9 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent.
   24 HR Trend......33 percent wetter...except 39 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (210).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 3 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer...except 3 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (280).
Mixing Height.......5600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 3 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-160815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
324 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer...except 9 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then slight chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....63-68...except 54-59 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler...except 7 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent...except 56-61 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent wetter...except 33 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (270).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 7 percent drier along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent...except 47-52 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (380).
Mixing Height.......6400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 3 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-160815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
324 PM EDT Sat May 15 2021

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers until 2400, then chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph shifting to the west
                    around 6 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
   24 HR Trend......26 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (180).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (640).
Mixing Height.......7200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

DJC


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