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000
FXUS64 KBRO 251934
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
234 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The main headline in the short term will continue to be the wind. A
tight pressure gradient has produced a windy day across deep South
Texas and the RGV so far. As repeating storm systems mature and lift
over the Southern Plains in the short term, the mechanism of lower
pressure upstream interacting with higher pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will drive stronger winds. Southeast winds will decrease
slightly tonight, but will come right back on Friday. A wind
advisory will be possible for southeastern sections of the CWA on
Friday, as some model guidance kicks sustained winds to 30 mph or
higher and/or gusts to 40 mph or higher.

With marine moisture being well mixed into the low levels of the
atmosphere, light fog or haze may slightly limit visibility at
times. Elevated waves and longer swell periods will contribute to an
elevated rip current risk and a high risk is now in effect, likely
to extend through Friday night.

The forecast will continue dry in the short term, with partly to
mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will remain above average by about
5 degrees. Lows will be in the 70s. Highs will range from the 80s
nearer the coast to the 90s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Tight pressure gradients will remain in place for the start of
the long term period, supporting a strong 850mb LLJ (Low Level
Jet) running along the Texas Coast up into the Midwest. Stronger
winds will likely mix to the surface Saturday, possibly prompting
a Wind Advisory for some of the southeastern counties, though
conditions appear to be borderline.

As we continue through the period, an upper level trough over the
central plains will traverse further east, weakening the LLJ and
pushing it further offshore. Breezy conditions are likely Sunday,
but Wind Advisories look unlikely. Mostly zonal flow aloft looks
to dominate the start of the workweek, with weak ridging taking
over by mid-week. At the surface southeasterly winds will continue
to advect warm, humid air into the region, keeping high
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, and low temperatures in
the 70s.

Overall, rain chances are fairly low through the period, however
there are a couple opportunities for some areas to get rain. The
first will be Sunday, when a cold front looks to stall just to the
north of the CWA, possibly promoting some isolated showers and
thunderstorms along the northern CWA border.

Beginning Monday, a series of shortwaves moving through the upper
level flow could kick off some convection along the Sierra Madre
Mountains, and some of those showers and thunderstorms could make
it to Deep South Texas before dissipating. The best rain chances
look to be Monday night into Tuesday, though confidence is still
low, and rain chances are capped at 20-30%.

Additionally, with stronger winds offshore for the start of the
period, higher seas are expected through at least Monday , most
likely resulting in a high risk of rip currents.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

MVFR conditions at the TAF sites now due to ceilings. The morning
sounding at KBRO showed an inversion around 900 mb (3,350 ft)
trapping low clouds. Southeast winds are increasing now, clearing
out light morning fog and maybe raising ceilings a bit. Ceilings
will lower again this evening as soon as breezy winds drop off a
skosh. Despite windy conditions on Friday, there will also be a
lot of moisture, meaning MVFR conditions will likley be the rule
again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Tonight through Friday night...Small craft advisory conditions are
ongoing through Friday and may be extended into Friday night. A
tight pressure gradient is fueling the stronger southeast winds and
elevated seas. The stronger winds are helping marine moisture mix
into the lower atmosphere, supporting some patchy fog in coastal
areas, especially through the overnight and early morning hours.

Saturday through next Thursday...Strong pressure gradients along
the Lower Texas Coast will likely support elevated winds through
the start of the period. Wind speeds will likely decrease by
Sunday afternoon, however elevated seas will likely remain a bit
longer. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed through the
weekend, and possibly carrying into the day Monday. Light to
moderate winds and moderate seas look to continue through the
remainder of the period, though some Small Craft Exercise caution
headlines may be needed Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             75  86  75  89 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               73  89  73  91 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 75  91  76  91 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         74  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      75  79  75  81 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     73  85  73  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...54-BHM