Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
431
FXUS65 KBYZ 092046
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
246 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot today (90s to lower 100s). Heat Advisory in effect for
portions of the area until 9 PM MDT today.
- Isolated mainly dry thunderstorms with strong wind gust
potential through this evening.
- Cold front brings increasing chance of precipitation late
Thursday into Friday; Highs in the 70s Friday.
- Turning warmer again for the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through Thursday night...
Hot conditions will persist into this evening as temperatures
warm into the 90s to lower 100s. With this heat, the Heat Advisory
in effect for Yellowstone, Musselshell, Treasure, Rosebud,
Custer, Fallon, Carter, Powder River, and portions of Big Horn,
Carbon, and Sheridan (WY) Counties remains in effect until 9 PM
MDT this evening.
While most areas will remain dry this afternoon into Thursday,
there is enough elevated instability around to favor high-based
scattered showers and isolated mostly dry thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The factor working against this is the warm
temperatures aloft (700mb temperatures around 12 to 16 degC).
However, the passage of a weak cold front late this afternoon and
evening should provide enough lift and moisture to favor high-
based scattered showers and isolated mostly dry thunderstorms.
With this activity, the main threat is strong, erratic wind gusts
of 50 to 65 mph. A secondary threat is dry lightning. While
vegitation is still relatively green across much of the area,
outside of areas north of the Yellowstone River valley and away
from the Bull Mountains, people should still be aware for
potential lightning caused fire starts.
Thursday will start out dry with slightly cooler temperatures
behind this evening`s cold front passage (highs in the 80s to low
90s). By Thursday evening into Thursday night, a stronger trough
and associated cold front is set to move into and through the
region. With this, even cooler temperatures and increased
atmospheric moisture (precipitable water values up around 1 inch)
are expected to move into the region. This will allow for better
chances of precipitation across the area (20 to 40 percent). With
that said, the best chance of seeing accumulating precipitation
continues to be pushed back to Friday when the aforementioned
trough axis is expected to drop into the area. See the long term
discussion for more information about this. Outside of the
precipitation chances Thursday, gusty winds look to accompany the
front with gusts of 20 to 40 mph forecast. Arends
Friday through Tuesday...
An upper trough moving across Canada will drag its positively
tilted axis across eastern Montana Friday. This track is a little
more easterly than proggs indicated yesterday. Favorable upper
dynamics get dragged into our CWA late Thursday night into Friday.
Thus, our precipitation is a little slower to arrive and exit our
area than yesterdays forecast. Pops will reflect this with showers
and some thundershowers lingering over our east and southern
sections into the afternoon. Temps are still expected to be on the
cool side with highs in the mid to upper 70s common. Precipitation
chances diminish by evening as upper dynamics track southeast and
drier more stable air pushes in from the northwest behind the
trough axis.
The cool temperatures are short lived as flat west/northwest flow
aloft with dry downslope air prevails over the region over the
area will allow temperatures to reach the lower 90s in many areas
through the weekend. Only a slight chance of isolated convection
possible by Sunday afternoon.
Heading into the next work week, models generally continue warm
conditions into Monday, but some ensemble members show a cold
front arriving by Monday rather than Monday Night/Tuesday. So some
uncertainty just how soon we may see another decent frontal
passage next week. For now, we lean toward NBM showing a push of
northerly wind arriving Monday limiting highs a bit in the mid to
upper 80s, with much cooler air settling in Monday night into
Tuesday. Temps on Tuesday in the lower to mid 70s. The caveat is
if cold front arrives earlier, we may see Monday temps cooler than
forecast ranging from upper 70s to mid 80s with breezy north
winds. An increasing chance of precipitation is expected Monday
through Tuesday as this system moves through the region. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. During this
afternoon and evening, high-based scattered showers and isolated
mainly dry thunderstorms are forecast to move through the region.
With this activity, the main threat is strong, erratic wind gusts
to 50 knots. While all TAF sites could be impacted, the best
chances are around KLVM, KBIL, and KMLS (~20 to 30 percent
chance). Additionally, look for winds to shift out of the
northwest this evening into tonight with the passage of a weak
cold front. Arends
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/090 057/077 054/091 061/093 064/088 058/073 052/075
21/U 32/W 00/U 00/U 11/U 34/T 42/T
LVM 053/087 049/077 047/088 054/092 055/086 051/074 045/076
21/N 31/B 00/B 00/U 12/T 34/T 32/T
HDN 061/090 056/076 049/091 057/095 061/089 056/074 051/076
20/U 43/T 00/U 00/U 11/U 43/T 42/T
MLS 067/092 057/077 054/090 061/094 063/088 059/076 053/077
30/U 42/W 00/U 00/U 11/U 43/T 32/W
4BQ 066/090 058/074 053/086 061/092 064/088 059/075 053/072
21/U 32/W 00/U 00/U 11/B 43/T 53/T
BHK 062/091 054/073 049/085 056/090 059/086 053/075 049/075
21/U 32/W 00/U 00/U 11/U 33/T 32/W
SHR 059/087 051/071 046/086 055/092 057/088 053/073 048/072
21/U 34/T 10/U 00/U 11/U 34/T 53/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Heat Advisory in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES
29>33-36-37-57-58-138-139-169-173-235.
WY...Heat Advisory in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE
199.
&&
$$
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