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000
FXUS62 KCAE 232331
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
731 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves off the coast tonight. A front comes through
Wednesday afternoon and evening, bringing a slight chance of
light showers for some areas. Fair and slightly cooler Thursday.
Weak surface high pressure will generally remain over or near
our vicinity Friday through Monday. Fair weather generally
expected with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure continues to slide eastward off the coast
this evening as a frontal boundary across the Great Lakes moves
toward the area overnight. Overhead, nearly zonal flow is being
noted aloft. An upper trough associated with the frontal
boundary moves toward the area overnight as well. As a result,
winds just above the boundary layer are forecast to remain
elevated, with some of the wind mixing down to the surface. As
such, temperatures are expected to be more mild tonight with
lows around 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Southwesterly flow is expected to again increase on Wednesday as
a front approaches from the north. This is expected to feature
gusts upwards of 20 mph during the afternoon hours and to fuel
warm air advection. Highs will bump back up near or slightly
above normal, with highs generally 78-82F across the FA. The
cold front is forecast to approach from the north by late
afternoon and evening hours. Ahead of this, PWs are forecast to
jump into the 1"-1.25" range which should help yield isolated
to scattered showers along and ahead of the front. These likely
will not put down much rainfall but likely just enough to
measure. Temps should fall into the upper 40s and low 50s by
Thursday morning. Speaking of Thursday, the weather looks nice
again with highs in the upper 70s and mostly sunny skies. Lows
overnight should be in the 50s as high pressure settles in and
southeasterly flow helps moisten us up.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low-level high pressure is forecast to be the dominant feature
in this period. The center of this is likely to our east and
northeast through at least Monday, setting us up for
southeasterly onshore flow in the 1000-850 hPa layer. This is
typically a favorable setup for low clouds in the mornings, so
expect at least a day of that, but otherwise, mostly fair
conditions are likely through the period. Mid and upper level
heights are forecast to be near the 90th percentile (per NAEFS),
so a slow moderation in temps is likely through the weekend.
Highs will likely be in the low 80s Saturday but should be in
the mid to upper 80s by the end of this period. There is some
indication that the ridging will finally break down by this
time next week, but forecaster confidence is low in this at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR expected.

The air mass remains relatively dry through Wednesday morning
then expect an increase in moisture ahead of an approaching cold
front. Pressure ridge centered along the SC coast this evening
will move further out to sea. As an upper trough moves into the
northeastern States Wednesday, a cold front will approach from
the northwest late in the day. Low-level moisture will increase
through the day and expect scattered strato-cumulus to develop
by early afternoon. The clouds may become broken mainly after
21z. Any showers should be limited with the front and mainly
north of the terminals. Mixing in the boundary layer overnight
and warm advection should limit fog development. Winds will be
southwest around 5 kts through 12z then increase to 10 to 20
knots with a few higher gusts possible in the afternoon. Winds
shifting to west late as the front approaches around 00z
Thursday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$