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000
FXUS62 KCAE 191803
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
203 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture increases into Saturday as a cold front moves toward
the area. With strong heating each afternoon, diurnally driven
isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop.
The front becomes stationary near or slightly south of the area
Sunday. Deep moisture and lift across the area will result in
numerous showers Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures Sunday
and Monday are expected to be well below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper heights continue to generally rise over the area, but a
weak shortwave sparked some shower and thunderstorm activity in
the area earlier today. This activity has since moved out of the
forecast area. As the shortwave continues to pass overhead,
subsidence behind it is leading to clearing skies over the
western portion of the forecast area. This clearing is expected
to progress eastward through the next few hours.

Rest of today and tonight: A backdoor front is forecast to move
toward the area later this afternoon and evening. This front
could act as a triggering mechanism for a few thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening, with greater chances near the NC/SC
border into the eastern Midlands as this is the area that is
forecast to have an area of surface convergence. Model soundings
show steep low level lapse rates along with 0-6 km bulk shear
around 30 kts. These factors could lead to an isolated strong to
marginally severe storm. With the steep low level lapse rates,
strong winds are the main threat should a stronger storm
develop. As with earlier today, forecasts continue to show some
warmer temperatures aloft, which could hinder upscale growth and
hail development.

With the showers and storms moving through earlier and dew
points increasing to around 70F, have lowered the afternoon
highs a few degrees. Highs are still expected to reach the mid
80s. Cloud cover overnight should lead to mild lows in the lower
to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Although a surface front will be moving southward through the
area, much of Saturday has been trending drier through the
daytime hours. Some warming aloft and weak lift should inhibit
any rain through the early afternoon. By late afternoon into the
evening, warming aloft may weaken enough to trigger isolated to
scattered showers/storms, especially over the eastern cwa and
the coastal plain where moisture may be better. Moving into
Saturday night, upper flow out of the southwest will bring Gulf
moisture over the surface front. In addition, an area of low
pressure moving along the surface front will push towards the
area from the west overnight. This will bring additional
moisture along with it into Sunday. Region will see increasing
rain chances overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. For Sunday,
more widespread stratiform rainfall is expected to overspread
the area as a surface wedge moves in from the north.

Temperatures Saturday will vary a bit from north to south as the
front sags southward. Northern counties will remain in the 70s,
while the southern CSRA will reach the mid to upper 80s. Sunday
will be a much different day across the entire forecast area as
much cooler air moves in on northeasterly winds. Additional
cooling from the expected rainfall and cloud cover, and the
warmest temperatures may actually occur early in the day, with
steady or falling temperatures possible through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rainfall should be rapidly moving out of the area by Monday
morning, bringing a return of drier weather for the remainder of
the week. Do expect low-level wedge flow to continue bringing
cooler temperatures across the area on Monday, with afternoon
highs well below normal once again. Still, with some sunshine
possible, readings will be a little warmer than Sunday`s highs
as readings are expected in the middle 60s.

As mentioned, Tuesday through Thursday will be dry. Another weak
front may move through the region towards the end of the forecast
period, but moisture remains limited. After the cool
temperatures of Monday, the region will see a moderating trend
to the afternoon highs and overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period.

The shower and thunderstorm activity from earlier today has
moved out of the area,leaving some mid level clouds behind.
Satellite imagery indicates there is some clearing occurring
just west of AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB. The clearing is anticipated to be
relatively short lived as daytime heating should produce a
cumulus field this afternoon. Isolated showers and storms are
anticipated to redevelop this afternoon, which could result in
brief restrictions at the terminals. However, confidence is too
low that any of this activity will occur over a terminal to
include in the TAF. West to southwest winds 5-10 kts (gusting
to 15 kts at CAE/CUB) are expected this afternoon before
diminishing tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing confidence in
restrictions Sunday into Monday with possible developing wedge
conditions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$