075
FXUS61 KCAR 012338
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
738 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure drifts over the Gulf of Maine tonight. Weak low
pressure tracks through the state then over the Gulf of Maine
on Thursday. High pressure builds across the region Thursday
night into Saturday. A frontal system approaches Saturday night
into Sunday, then crosses the region Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
738 PM Update: Current IR satellite imagery shows that though
mostly clear skies continue across much of the forecast area, a
thin layer of stratus continues to slowly erode along the
Downeast coast. The trend is for skies to continue to clear
through the evening, before an inversion builds in overnight.
High level clouds will move in from the west, and patchy fog
could develop Downeast overnight. Overall, the previous forecast
remains on track.

Previous Discussion:
Weak high pressure at the surface continues to drift south over
the outer Gulf of Maine waters tonight. Shortwave energy at
500mb comes racing southeast through Ontario into Quebec
overnight. At the surface weak low pressure is associated with
it and will track towards Maine through the night into tomorrow.
Tonight, expect a mainly dry night across the area with
increasing cloud cover. Given the increasing clouds in most
areas the temperatures will remain mild. Expecting lows to
bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds will be light and
variable tonight. As RHs increase to 97-100% across Downeast
areas into the Southern Central Highlands cannot rule out some
patchy fog.

Tomorrow, low pressure will track southeast over Vermont and New
Hampshire into the Gulf of Maine near Boston by late day thanks
to a nice thermal gradient. Over Eastern & Northern Maine
expecting generally a E-SE weak flow. Scattered showers with an
area of light stratiform rain will pass through western zones
from Moosehead to the Downeast coast. This will be light rain
for much of the day with most locations only seeing 0.2-0.4 inch
especially in Hancock, Southern Penobscot into Central
Piscataquis county. Showers will produce less than 0.1 inch for
most other locations with much of Aroostook remaining dry with
just clouds. Tomorrow given the clouds, rain and E-SE winds
expect highs to be only in the low to mid 50s for much of the
Downeast coast, Central Highlands and Moosehead Region. More
easterly winds across Aroostook, N. Washington and N. Penobscot
will be a downslope off the Miramichi Highlands of New
Brunswick. Given the lack of rain in these areas and even some
sunny breaks expect these locations to be the warm spots. Here
temperatures will top out in the upper 50s to low 60s and cannot
rule out a few mid 60s in far eastern Aroostook County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure exits south of the Gulf of Maine early Thursday night,
with high pressure building south across the region late. Could
still have a slight chance/chance of showers with the exiting low
early Thursday night. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies
Thursday night. Surface high pressure builds across the region
Friday, while an upper level disturbance crosses the region.
Expect mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies across the region
Friday. High pressure remains across the region Friday night
through Saturday with skies remaining partly/mostly cloudy.
Expect near normal level temperatures Friday/Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure begins to exit across the Maritimes Saturday night,
while an occluded front slowly approaches from the west. Expect
increasing clouds Saturday night. The occluded front begins to
slowly cross the region Sunday, though the exact timing of the
front is still uncertain due to exiting high pressure across the
Maritimes. Shower chances will increase, from west to east,
mostly later Sunday into Sunday night in advance of the occluded
front. Showers will persist with the front early Monday, then
begin to diminish. Surface high pressure will build across the
region Monday night into Tuesday night, with an upper level
disturbance possibly clipping northern areas Tuesday. Generally
expect decreasing clouds Monday night, with partly cloudy skies
Tuesday/Tuesday night. Low pressure approaching from the west
could bring a chance of rain or showers later Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Expect near normal, to slightly below normal,
level temperatures Sunday. Slightly above normal level
temperatures are expected Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions continue across the north tonight
through the day on Thursday, with mostly clear skies overnight
giving way to OVC just above VFR thresholds. For Downeast
terminals, patchy fog developing tonight could lead to
conditions quickly falling to MVFR or IFR overnight, though
confidence remains too low (20%) in any IFR chances from fog to
include decrease in vis in the TAFs. Low cigs will likely last
through the day on Thursday as well with the next system moving
through and bringing light rain to the Downeast region. Winds
light and variable overnight becoming E to SE at 5 to 10 kts on
Thursday.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday night...Across northern areas VFR/MVFR. A slight chance of
showers early. Across Downeast areas, VFR/MVFR with a chance of
showers early then VFR late. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...Occasional MVFR possible early north. Otherwise, VFR.
North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday night through Saturday night...VFR. North/northeast winds 5
to 10 knots Friday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday.
Southeast/south winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday night.

Sunday...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late with a slight chance/chance of
showers. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Sunday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, with showers. South winds
10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming southwest 10 to
15 knots.

Monday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers early, then VFR/MVFR.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west/northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below SCA conditions through tomorrow
evening. Seas generally 1ft or less tonight and 1-2ft tomorrow.
Winds generally less than 15kt. Patchy fog may reduce vsby late
tonight. Light rain may reduce vsby at times tomorrow into the
late afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Thursday night through Saturday. A chance of showers Thursday
night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Sinko
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...AStrauser/Sinko/Norcross
Marine...AStrauser/Sinko/Norcross