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000
FXUS64 KCRP 252319
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
619 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Key Messages:

- High risk of rip currents this afternoon through Friday

- Wind Advisory conditions possible Friday

- Isolated thunderstorms possible over the northern Coastal Plains
and Victoria Crossroads Friday

There were minor changes made to the forecast. Due to obs reporting
higher winds, seas reporting heights around 4 feet and 7 second
periods per Buoy 42019 around , along with the influence of the full
moon the rip current risk was elevated to a High risk for the rest
of today through tomorrow. Erring on the side of caution due to the
fact wave heights are expected to increase overnight tonight and
winds are expected to persist through tomorrow.

With the presence of increased onshore flow due to the upper level
disturbance moving across the southwestern US and a tightening
pressure gradient, Wind Advisory conditions will be possible
tomorrow. Models have been on a down trend from previous runs with
the 13Z run of the NBM ensemble showing lower probabilities. They do
however predict wind gusts to still be borderline Wind Advisory
criteria, therefore it`s not completely out of the question. This
will be reassessed later tonight in order to get a better gauge on
the threat. Some energy associated with the upper level disturbance
will move through the area and combine with above normal PWATS (1.7-
1.9 inches) which could allow for some isolated thunderstorms over
the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads Friday. The
caveat to this will be higher CIN values which should limit chances.

Conditions will remain humid tonight with lows in the 70s expected.
High temperatures to the east will be in the mid 80s with mid 90s
out west due to less cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

- Medium to high chance of Wind Advisory conditions for portions of
  South Texas Saturday

- Very warm Saturday with highs near 100 degrees out west

- Low to medium rain/storm chances daily Sunday through Thursday

Latest medium range models still indicate a strong surface pressure
gradient setting up over the area Saturday into Saturday night leading
to a medium to high chance of Wind Advisory conditions. This is in
response to a deep layer trough advancing from the Rockies into the
Central Plains.  As this trough lifts into the upper midwest on
Sunday, a weak boundary will stall over Central Texas causing our
pressure gradient to relax. There remains a low to medium (20-50%)
chance for showers/thunderstorm across our northern CWA on Sunday
due to convergence along the boundary and lift associated with the
tail end of the upper trough.

A nearly zonal flow aloft will bring a steady stream of s/w`s over
South Texas through the work week.  This will combine with a
persistent onshore flow and abundant moisture with PWATs in the 1.5
to 1.9 inch range (99th percentile) to bring daily low end chances
for showers and thunderstorms. The main inhibitor is the lack of low
level focus. The operational 06z ECMWF is currently an outlier with
regards to a slightly deeper trough forming over the eastern CONUS
Wed-Thu, bringing a boundary into the region and a potential for a
large MCS to sweep through the area. The 12z ECMWF still brings an
MCS into the area but is less amplified with upper trough. The rest
of the guidance including the EPS, GEFS and GEPS ensemble forecasts
maintain a more zonal flow. Will carry low chances for PoPs at
this time and continue to monitor.

Temperatures will be very warm on Saturday as a dryline nears the
area from the west. Highs are forecast to approach the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees over portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande
Plains, with maximums in the mid 80s across the east. Otherwise,
expect highs to range from the low 80s to mid 90s through the end of
the work week, with overnight lows generally in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected through tonight with gusty
winds persisting, espeically at CRP terminal. Wind remain above
10kt for all sites much of the night. Friday morning CIGS will
gradually improve to VFR by late morning or early afternoon. Winds
at eastern sites will be gusting around 30 knots once again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Moderate to strong onshore flow will persist this afternoon into
Friday, as an upper level disturbance approaches the southwestern
United States. A persistent strong onshore can be expected
through Sunday when Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely.
Winds become weak to moderate during the day Monday and will
persist through the remainder of the period. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible daily Sunday through Tuesday as a
couple weak disturbances move over the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    74  86  74  87 /   0  10   0   0
Victoria          72  84  73  86 /   0  10   0   0
Laredo            74  95  74  97 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             73  90  73  90 /   0  10   0   0
Rockport          73  82  74  83 /   0  10   0   0
Cotulla           74  94  75  96 /  20  10   0   0
Kingsville        73  90  74  89 /   0  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       74  85  75  84 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ231-
     232-236-237.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ250.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
     for GMZ255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...PH/83