690
FXUS64 KFWD 081041
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
541 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Stratus currently blankets most of North and Central Texas where
70 degree dewpoints are observed region-wide. We`re continuing to
keep an eye out in West Texas where a dryline continues to be
located. This dryline is expected to advance east today and become
a focus for afternoon convective development.

Today and tomorrow look to primarily be a threat for damaging wind
and very large hail, with a lesser tornado threat. You`ll want to
keep updated on weather conditions and have a plan in place if
severe weather impacts your location.

No major changes were made to the forecast aside from refining
PoPs and adding the potential for patchy fog/haze ahead of where
the cold front looks to be located tomorrow morning. The previous
forecast discussion remains valid.


Prater

Previous Discussion:
/Today through Friday Morning/

A warm front will continue to move northward this morning through
the Southern Plains, pulling a moisture rich warm sector
northward through North Texas. A dryline remains positioned across
West Texas at this hour and will advance eastward through the day.
Today`s commute will be quite warm and muggy as North and Central
Texas find themselves entrenched within 60 and 70 degree
dewpoints and a deck of low-level morning stratus.

Forcing for ascent will be on the increase across the region today
in response to both a shortwave trough rounding the periphery of the
upper low and an upper level jet streak taking shape overhead. Down
towards the surface our resident dryline will continue to move
eastward this afternoon, eventually ending up just west of the I-35
corridor. The Pacific front/dryline will become the focus for
convective development during the late afternoon and evening
hours, with CAM guidance showing a blossoming of showers and
storms near and east of I-35. Severe storms are likely at some
point this afternoon with the greatest threat expected to be along
and east of I-35 into our northeast counties. Forecast soundings
show the environment in this area will feature 4000-5000 J/kg of
MLCAPE, 40-50 kts of deep layer shear, and >8 C/km lapse rates.
Any storm that forms in this environment will quickly be able to
become severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary
threats. Initial discrete storms off the dryline may have an
increased tornado threat as low level winds will be slightly
backed. We`ll need to closely watch this potential throughout the
day. Otherwise, the overall tornado threat remains on the lower
end as low level wind profiles are generally weak, but if winds
start to trend more backed to the southeast, then the tornado
threat may increase.

Any lingering storms should exit to our east during the early
overnight hours into Thursday. Meanwhile a cold front will
continue to move south through the Central Plains as the
aforementioned shortwave ejects to the northeast, bringing
northerly winds and slightly cooler temperatures along behind it.
Ample moisture and instability within the warm sector will allow
for another shot at showers and storms both along and ahead of the
frontal boundary during the day Thursday. The regional
environment will once again feature ample MLCAPE, deep layer
shear, and steep lapse rates capable of large hail and damaging
winds. The tornado threat remains low due to weak low level
winds. The greatest threat for severe weather on Thursday remains
near the I-20 corridor and south into Central Texas. Long,
straight hodographs and >8 C/km lapse rates across the Metroplex
and south will lead to an increased potential for very large hail
to occur during this time.

The front will finally exit the region closer to daybreak Friday,
ending all rain chances across our CWA. Left behind will be
northerly winds and cooler morning lows in the 50s and 60s. There
is potential for patchy fog on Thursday morning, impacting the
commute with lowered visibility.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 253 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024/
/Friday Onward/

Cooler, drier, and breezy conditions will be in place on Friday
as surface high pressure builds south through the Southern Plains
in the wake of Thursday/Thursday night`s cold front. Dewpoints
should remain in the 50s through Saturday night, making for a
great start to the weekend. Highs in the mid and upper 70s will be
generally 5 to 10 degrees below normal on Friday, with only a
slight warm-up expected on Saturday. Friday night`s lows in the
50s to lower 60s may be some of the cooler air we will experience
until fall.

Return flow will commence on Sunday as the post-frontal surface
ridge heads for the central Gulf Coast. Scattered showers and
occasional thunderstorms will also be on the increase starting
Sunday as the next upper low approaches from the west. Rain
chances will begin across the southwest zones as early as
Saturday night, then increase from southwest to northeast as
isentropic lift strengthens in advance of the upper low (and deep
layer moisture increases). Thursday`s front will have become
stationary along the Gulf Coast by the weekend, keeping
thunderstorms elevated in nature as the upper low continues east
through the Plains Sunday night and Monday. This will limit the
severe weather threat, though some storms will be capable of hail
and locally heavy rain. The greater concern may again be the
threat for flooding due to the saturated soils in place across the
region and the slow eastward progression of the upper low.

Model solutions deviate considerably after Monday regarding the
evolution of the upper level system. The stronger and more
progressive solutions end rain chances by Tuesday as the low
moves east, while the slower, weaker solutions keep rain chances
going through the middle of next week. Will remain conservative
with POPs after Monday at this time and narrow the window as
better resolution data arrives in the coming days. In either case,
it looks like an unsettled weather pattern will persist through
at least the middle part of the month.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

MVFR will persist for the next few hours before cigs improve over
the rest of the morning. Expect VFR through this afternoon at all
TAF sites with south-southwest winds persisting. A dryline/cold
front will approach D10 late afternoon/early evening, allowing for
the potential for VCTS from 23-04Z. Winds will shift to the NE in
D10, persisting to the end of the period. If the front were to
stay further north, then southerly winds would persist at D10
until Thursday afternoon. Southerly winds will prevail at ACT
through tomorrow. Another round of MVFR stratus is expected at the
TAF sites, but this occurrence in D10 will also be impacted by
the location of the front tomorrow morning.

Additional showers and storms are expected near and south of I-20
tomorrow afternoon, but are beyond the TAF period. These will be
included in future TAF issuances.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  69  81  63  79 /  10  20  40  20   0
Waco                89  70  85  63  78 /  20  20  40  20   0
Paris               87  64  83  60  77 /  20  50  30  20   0
Denton              91  65  81  60  77 /   5  10  30  20   0
McKinney            90  66  81  61  76 /  20  30  40  20   0
Dallas              92  69  83  63  79 /  10  30  40  20   0
Terrell             87  69  82  61  77 /  20  40  40  30   0
Corsicana           89  72  85  63  79 /  20  30  40  30   0
Temple              89  71  85  64  79 /  20  10  30  20   5
Mineral Wells       92  65  80  60  77 /   5   5  40  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$