Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
013 FXUS64 KFWD 141132 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 632 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms may produce locally heavy rain through this evening. - Isolated storms are expected on Tuesday, followed by seasonable weather with little to no rain the rest of the week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 137 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ /Through Tuesday Afternoon/ A slow-moving mid-level trough, augmented by the MCV now located east of Stephenville and bolstered by persistent low-level warm advection, continues to act as the primary weather influence across the region this morning. KFWD`s 00Z RAOB sampled a PWAT of 1.74" which reflects the anomalously high moisture still pooling across the Southern Plains. A narrow ribbon of enhanced vorticity stretching from the Edwards Plateau into southeast Oklahoma remains trapped on the western flank of the departing trough this morning continuing to support convective development across the state. Current KGRK radar imagery shows a growing band of convection feeding into the circulation center of the MCV. This activity is developing on the southern edge of the vortex, where low- to mid- level convergence and ascent are enhanced by the MCV`s cyclonic circulation. Expect this mesoscale corridor of ascent to persist through the morning, leading to localized downpours in the vicinity of the MCV. By this afternoon, the aforementioned upper trough axis will have have shifted slightly eastward but should remain a dominant feature over the area. Lingering moisture and weak ascent will sustain low (20-30%) thunderstorm chances, especially in the vicinity of any remnant boundaries/outflows left behind by earlier convection. Moderately strong diurnal heating and the corresponding increase in surface-based instability could allow for a brief strong storm or two, particularly where surface heating becomes locally maximized. However, the main hazard will still be locally heavy rainfall given the high PWAT environment. Tuesday will begin the transition towards warmer and drier weather as the mid-level trough exits to the northeast and the mid-level ridge over the Southeast U.S. slowly builds into eastern Texas. There will likely still be sufficient moisture in place (PWATS of 1.5 to 2") such that the lingering ascent from the exiting trough could support a few showers or isolated storms north and west of the ridge (west of I-35 and along the Red River) Tuesday afternoon. 12 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 137 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ /Tuesday Night through Monday/ The main story in the long term period will be the return of summer heat, albeit with some restraint initially due to lingering moisture and weak flow aloft. Mid-level heights will gradually rise through the week as ridging over the Southeast U.S. expands westward. This will effectively shut down convective chances area-wide by Wednesday. Temperatures will respond accordingly. Afternoon highs on Wednesday and Thursday will climb into the mid 90s. Humid surface conditions, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s, will yield heat index values in the 100-104 degree range. While this is just below Heat Advisory criteria, caution is still warranted for those spending any amount of time outdoors. By Friday and into the weekend, ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the ridge will broaden and strength across the southern CONUS, placing our area firmly under a subsident regime. As a result, temperatures will continue to climb, especially west of I-35 where highs may approach the triple digits with enough humidity lingering to push heat index values to 100-106 F during the peak afternoon hours. Rain chances will remain limited with the only potential tied to seabreeze-driven showers or storms that push into our southeastern counties. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ A small complex of showers and isolated storms will produce steady light rain and occasional MVFR at all locations for a few hours, with activity weakening 15-17Z as the low level jet mixes out. Additional shower and storm development late afternoon and this evening will be conditional on how much the atmosphere is able to recover. Will keep VCTS in the forecast for now (after 23Z) but it may need to be removed later today if the environment remains too stable. Another MVFR deck is possible overnight, but probabilities are too low to include in the TAFs at this time. 30 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 76 94 76 94 / 40 20 10 5 5 Waco 90 74 91 73 91 / 30 20 10 5 0 Paris 87 72 92 73 93 / 40 20 30 5 5 Denton 92 74 94 75 95 / 30 10 20 5 5 McKinney 90 74 93 76 94 / 50 20 20 5 5 Dallas 93 76 95 76 95 / 50 20 10 5 5 Terrell 90 74 93 74 93 / 50 20 10 0 0 Corsicana 92 75 94 75 94 / 40 20 10 0 0 Temple 91 73 92 73 93 / 30 10 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 93 73 94 74 94 / 20 10 20 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$