839
FXUS63 KGID 100532
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1232 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- below-normal precipitation totals are favored through the
  next 1-2 weeks.

- Only spotty showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm are
  expected through this evening. Nearly the entire area will
  stay dry.

- Better chances for thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. The threat
  for severe weather appears to be fairly low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Visible satellite shows pretty extensive cumulus development
this afternoon, and the regional radar mosaic shows a few
returns over northern Nebraska gradually moving southward. These
isolated showers may reach northern portions of the area late
this afternoon before gradually diminishing in the evening with
loss of diurnal heating. There is enough instability (100J/kg)
for a rumble of thunder or two, but severe weather is not
expected. If anything, the latest runs of near-term models are
even less impressed with the coverage/intensity of this activity
reaching into our area. Nearly everyone will stay dry, and even
areas that do see rain likely will not see more than 0.05".

The pattern remains stagnant on Friday, with continued
northwesterly surface winds and temperatures only a few degrees
warmer than today. A cutoff upper low will remain stalled over
the western CONUS as another shortwave skirts by to our
northwest Friday evening. Another round of spotty showers cannot
be ruled out, but the probability/impact is too low to add
anything into the forecast at this point.

The daytime of Saturday will be warm, dry and pleasant, but the
aforementioned upper low will slowly begin to break down down
and eject into the central Plains late Saturday night into
Sunday. This will bring us a chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms, especially Sunday afternoon into the evening.
That said, deep-layer shear is expected to be quite limited, so
the overall threat for severe weather remains pretty low.
Highest rain totals favor portions of Kansas, but exact details
remain quite uncertain.

Some activity could redevelop as this system slowly departs the
area on Monday, and additional chances for rain and storms
arrive with another shortwave trough Tuesday into Wednesday.
Despite all of these rain chances, global ensembles all show
near to below-normal precipitation totals through the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

High confidence VFR conditions expected through the period with
a few high clouds visible in Satellite imagery that are
anticipated to pass by the terminals through the period. In
addition...could see a bit of fair weather CU develop during the
afternoon near 6KFT, with steady northwest winds gusting to near
20 KTS possible for a few hours during the afternoon hours
Friday...before subsiding again near sunset.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Rossi