Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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827 FXUS62 KGSP 101740 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 140 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another system will bring showers and thunder this afternoon, before dry high pressure builds in through the weekend. An active pattern will set in for the new workweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM: Widespread cirrus associated with a thunderstorm complex moving by to our S will continue to move over the area this morning. This has not stopped the development of low stratus across much of the area which will continue through mid morning. A few showers, or even a thunderstorm, will move into the Upper Savannah River Valley early this morning before they become isolated through the rest of the morning. A short wave will swing across the area from the NW today, after some weak short wave energy this morning. A low pressure center will move east along the slow moving cold front moving south across the area. This, along with lingering moisture, will create scattered convection over portions of the NC mountains and I-77 corridor, with isolated convection elsewhere. Instability is expected to develop during the afternoon, especially across the CLT Metro area where MUCAPE could reach 1000 J/kg. Weaker instability is expected elsewhere. Strong bulk shear develops in the Metro area as well. The instability and shear combined with the forcing could lead to isolated severe storms with damaging wind gusts and hail the main threats. Outside of storms, gusty gradient winds are also expected. Highs will be a little above normal. The convection should taper off quickly during the evening as drier air moves in and forcing moves east. Gusts will taper off outside of the mountains but linger across portions of the higher elevations. Skies clear with some mountain valley fog possible. Lows will be around 5 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 302 AM EDT Friday: Expect a brief period of flattening uppper heights on Saturday, before another shortwave dives down into the Mid Atlantic Saturday night. Operational guidance depicts a swath of deep moisture associated with this feature, but it arrives slowly. Increasing cirrus from Saturday night onward...becoming overcast by late Sunday. Model profiles indicate enough subsidence to inhibit any thunder Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Temperatures will be 1-2 categories below normal on Saturday, rising to within a category of normal on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 312 AM EDT Friday: Typical late spring pattern resumes on Monday with a wavy upper pattern. The bulk of guidance has some flavor of a deep trough or closed upper low drifting out of the Ozarks late Monday and into Tuesday, ushering in better moisture. Instability looks anemic on Monday and Tuesday, but by Wednesday, the GFS and CMC both depict a plume of afternoon CAPE intersecting a well-sheared environment. Wednesday thus looks like it could perhaps be our next severe weather day. Temps will be near or just below normal Monday, falling to at least a category below normal on Tuesday. Things will warm back up on Wednesday and beyond. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: An upper wave will cross the area this afteroon and evening which will bring a nw/ly wind shift outside the mtns. Some precip will be associated with this wave, but instability looks suspect for a great thunder threat. So have included a TEMPO -TSRA for CLT aft 22z til 00z. Otherwise, VFR conds persist and north to northwesterly gusty winds will prevail this afternoon across most sites and weaken overnight. No great chance of fog in the morning with the drier air mixing in. Outlook: VFR conditions continue this weekend. Moisture returns late Monday with active weather possible by Tuesday. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...RWH SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...SBK