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000
FXUS62 KILM 181945
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
345 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances will increase on Friday as a cold front moves
across the area. The front stalls in the area for the weekend,
maintaining elevated rain chances. High pressure next week leads
to drying conditions once more, with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The above normal temperatures will continue tonight. A back door
cold front will sink about half way across the area overnight.
As this boundary weakens it will lift back to the north very
slightly stalling in the Cape Fear region. Later Friday another
cold front will approach from the west while some paltry vorticity
maxima approach. Forecast soundings show rapid moistening through
a deep layer as ample instability develops. SPC highlighting the
area for Marginal Risk. Given the instability and healthy veering
with height could see the need for a higher outlook level in
future forecasts or at least some small tornado probs. Overall
storm coverage may be low however given the weakness of the mid
level lift.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Some of the low-level vorticity maxima (such that it is) will
continue to move through the area Friday evening, which will
keep up some of the rain chances. Should have less instability
from the loss of daytime heating, but it still lingers around
regardless, and there are still 30-40kts of bulk shear to play
with. It`s possible to capture a strong storm inland, particularly
with damaging winds hitting the surface (confidence is still
pretty meager). Rain chances taper off during the overnight
hours as the surface front pushes offshore. Lows in the lower
60s.

Saturday, the front stalls offshore, while weak low pressure
along the front may bring a shower or thunderstorm inland. Warm
and nearly muggy, with highs in the lower 80s. Northwesterly
flow brings in slightly cooler air...lows Saturday night in the
mid- to-upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday, the front pushes further offshore, but a strong surface
low forms along the Georgia-South Carolina coast and pushes
northeastward. This brings a much better shot at showers and a
couple of thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night, particularly
closer to the coast. Clouds and rain, combined with the cooler
low-level flow out of the ENE, will bring mild highs in the mid-
to-upper 60s. Lows Sunday night in the lower 50s.

Old frontal boundary and associated surface low pressure finally
pushes out of the area for good Monday afternoon. Cooler air left
in the wake, with highs Monday in the mid 60s, and lows Monday
night in the mid-to-upper 40s inland, near 50 at the coast. A
few coastal showers may remain Monday morning, but should push
offshore by the afternoon. Cloud ceilings lift and gradually
clear out.

High pressure Tuesday brings clear skies and moderating temperatures.
Highs in the low-to-mid 70s, lows in the lower 50s.

Another frontal system looks to move through the area Wednesday
and Thursday, but for now, it looks like a pretty dry front, with
the majority of the forcing well to the north. Forecast guidance
looks strangely consistent on this idea so far out, but I would
maintain a healthy skepticism. Temperatures continue to warm up
to the lower 80s Wednesday, with a modest cooldown after the
frontal passage by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR with clear skies and no fog. Winds will swing around at ILM
as a backdoor cold front sinks south of the terminal just prior
to daybreak. This boundary will both weaken and lift back to
the north later in the day.

Extended Outlook... VFR is expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Backdoor cold front veers the winds tonight
over mainly northwestern zones. This front will then lift back
to the north Friday allowing SW flow to return area-wide albeit
gradually. The small wind chop will accompany a minor high
pressure-induced SE swell.

Friday Night through Tuesday...SSW winds at 5-10kts Friday
night become more variable Saturday and Saturday night, due to a
stalled front over the waters. Pressure gradient increases Sunday
as the front slowly moves further offshore. Northeasterly winds
kick up to 15kts, with gusts up to 20kts. Seas at 2-3ft increase
to northeasterly wind waves at 3-4ft. By Monday and most of
Tuesday, winds vary slightly between NE and NNE, and a few gusts
may try to reach up to 25kts, and a few waves may get up to
4-5ft out 20nm from shore. Not Small Craft Advisory thresholds
yet, but wouldn`t be surprised if the forecast trends in that
direction over the next few days. Winds decrease Tuesday and
gradually veer more easterly.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/IGB