024
FXUS64 KLUB 090712
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
212 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Light northeast winds behind a weak and shallow cold front early
this morning as a surface low moves into the Permian Basin. Low
temperatures will remain similar to yesterday morning with
temperatures in the mid 40s to 50s. The cold front will stall for
a bit this afternoon across the far southwest South Plains and
into the Permian Basin. Breezy east northeast surface winds today
across the area with an increase in the pressure gradient directly
behind the boundary. Temperatures are expected to be about 5 to
10 degrees cooler today in the mid 70s to lower 80s due to weak
CAA and upslope flow. Meanwhile, the pattern aloft will begin to
change today as the upper low that was spinning over the Northern
Plains becomes absorbed into the base of a positively tilted
trough across the Great Lakes with a cutoff low retrograding
westward toward the Great Basin region. A weak and shallow
secondary cold front will push south through the forecast area
this afternoon, which will push the stationary (original) front
southward towards the Texas/Mexico state line. Winds will remain
out of the northeast and weaken this evening with low temperatures
to be similar to this morning in the mid 40s to 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A weekend will start out with a rex block from the eastern Pacific
into the western CONUS and slowly break down through the weekend in
response to a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. The trough
from the rex block will slowly progress across the southwestern US
this weekend providing increased precipitation chances through early
next week. Models have come into better agreement in moving this
upper trough onto the Plains late in the weekend. Therefore, forcing
for ascent will be fairly weak on Saturday. Lift on Saturday will
primarily be driven by moist isentropic ascent. There may be some
minor short waves moving through the southwest flow aloft but are
too minute for models to resolve at this time scale. Precipitation
may therefore be on the light side on Saturday. Increased chances
for precipitation will emerge on Sunday as the upper trough moves
east of the four-corners. Improved large scale ascent will move
overhead with the approach of this trough and will complement the
lower level isentropic ascent. The warm air advection will bring
unexceptional amounts of elevated instability overhead. Sunday may
see improved instability but most likely less than sufficient for
severe weather. Mostly cloudy and easterly flow will keep
temperatures below seasonal averages through at least Sunday.
Temperatures will then warm to more seasonal levels through mid-
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Light east northeast winds through the morning hours following the
passage of a weak cold front. Breezy east northeast winds will
persist through the day around 15 to 20 knots before diminishing
again tonight, but remaining out of the east northeast. Upslope
surface winds may give way to the development of low clouds with
MVFR ceilings towards the end of the TAF period, but confidence
remains too low at this time for a mention in this TAF issuance.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...11