Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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981 ACUS11 KWNS 052015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052014 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-052215- Mesoscale Discussion 0643 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Areas affected...Northeast TX/southeast OK into northern LA and southern/central AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052014Z - 052215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for a brief tornado or two could evolve late this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Clearing in the wake of earlier convection is allowing for airmass recovery across northern LA and southern AR. Persistent low-level theta-e advection in advance of a weak surface low across northeast TX may allow for storm redevelopment later this afternoon, within an effective warm frontal zone. With some midlevel drying expected in the wake of the ejecting shortwave trough across AR, the number and intensity of storms later this afternoon remains uncertain. However, increasing moisture/instability and relatively favorable low-level shear/SRH (as noted on the KSHV and KLZK VWPs) could support brief tornado potential with any longer-lived cells late this afternoon into early evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds will also be possible. At this time, the threat is expected to remain rather marginal and isolated, rendering the need for watch issuance uncertain. Trends will be closely monitored for the development of a supercell or two later this afternoon. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 32409427 32499497 33299518 34129536 34329461 34869290 34099140 33459123 32979126 32149166 31889191 31709220 31829266 31979300 32149349 32309394 32409427