549
FXUS64 KMOB 141747
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1247 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A VFR ceiling near 3.5 kft erodes from west to east through this
evening followed by clearing skies overnight. Southwesterly winds
around 10 knots diminish this evening and become westerly
overnight. A westerly flow at 5 to 10 knots is expected for
Wednesday morning. Patchy fog is anticipated to develop late
tonight over portions of southwest and central Alabama and the
western Florida panhandle. /29

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An upper trof oriented near the lower/mid Mississippi River valley
progresses slowly across the eastern states to just off the East
Coast through Wednesday night. An associated surface low currently
located near the Mississippi/Ohio River confluence progresses to
near the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and in the process brings a weak cold
front through the forecast area tonight. Ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary, a modest zone of low level convergence is
anticipated to develop this afternoon roughly along the I-65
corridor. Both of these features are expected to lead to isolated
to potentially scattered convective development this afternoon,
with the best potential mainly along the I-65 corridor. The
convection diminishes this evening with dry conditions then
following for the overnight hours through Wednesday night. MLCAPE
values this afternoon into the early evening hours look to reach
around 2000-2500 J/kg, which along with deep layer shear values
near 45 knots could allow for a few storms to possibly become
severe. The best potential for this to occur is over much of
southwest and south central Alabama, including the western Florida
panhandle, where a Marginal Risk of severe storms exists. Lows
tonight range from the lower 60s inland to near 70 at the coast.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s, then lows
Wednesday night range from around 60 well inland to the upper 60s
at the immediate coast. A high risk of rip currents continues
through Wednesday, then a moderate risk follows for Wednesday
night. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  87  64  87  69  85  71  86 /  10   0   0  10  40  70  40  40
Pensacola   70  87  67  86  73  84  74  84 /  20   0   0  10  30  60  50  50
Destin      72  84  69  84  74  83  75  83 /  20   0   0  10  20  60  50  50
Evergreen   64  87  61  89  66  85  67  85 /  40   0   0   0  40  80  60  50
Waynesboro  61  85  60  88  65  82  66  85 /  10   0   0  10  50  80  40  40
Camden      62  84  60  87  66  81  66  83 /  30   0   0   0  50  80  60  40
Crestview   65  88  62  90  66  87  70  86 /  20   0   0   0  20  70  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650-
     655.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ670-
     675.

&&

$$

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