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000
FXUS64 KMOB 281725
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings were being reported this afternoon
with satellite imagery revealing an expansive cumulus field across
the region. Ceilings should continue to lift through the afternoon
with another round of MVFR and VFR conditions expected tonight
into early Monday morning. Gusty southeasterly winds this
afternoon ease overnight before increasing to 10-15 knots on
Monday. /14

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Upper level ridging continues to extend across much of the eastern
and southeastern U.S. early this morning while an upper level low
pressure system continues to lift from the southern Rockies into the
central Plains. A moist low level southeasterly flow pattern remains
prevalent across our forecast area between ridging to our east and
low pressure moving over the Plains. This synoptic setup will change
little through this afternoon. Warm and breezy conditions are
expected across our forecast area again today with southeasterly
winds increasing to 10-20 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph over inland
areas and up to 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph closer to the
coast. High temperatures today should once again reach into the
lower to mid 80s over inland portions of the forecast area and in
the mid 70s to near 80 degrees along the immediate coast and
beaches. Several members of the available deterministic and CAM
guidance continue to show weak isentropic ascent resulting in the
development of a few rain showers and potentially a brief
thunderstorm or two over our western zones by this afternoon. We
will maintain a slight (15-20% chance) of convection generally along
and west of a Butler, AL to Lucedale, MS line during the afternoon.
Dry weather conditions are anticipated across our region this
evening through late tonight. Overnight lows should range from
around 60 degrees to the mid 60s over interior areas and in the
upper 60s to lower 70s along the immediate coast and beaches.

Upper level ridging will shift further to the east across the
western Atlantic on Monday as an upper level shortwave trough over
the Plains approaches the Mississippi Valley region. Forcing for
ascent will become enhanced from northern portions of Louisiana into
the Lower Mississippi Valley region late Sunday night into Monday
morning where an associated convective squall line/QLCS may be
located during this time frame. The shortwave trough axis should
continue to pivot eastward across Mississippi and toward western
portions of Alabama during the day Monday. Isolated convection could
develop into western portions of our forecast area as early as
Monday morning. Short range models are in relatively good agreement
with bringing associated deeper moisture/ascent into our southeast
MS/southwest AL zones by Monday afternoon and we expect to see
increasing convective coverage across locations especially west of
Interstate 65. POPs were trended higher, now generally ranging up to
40-60% on Monday across locations west of a Grove Hill to Mobile
line, with a slight chance of rain extending as far east as portions
of south central AL and the western FL panhandle. MLCAPE values
could increase up to 500-1000 J/KG across southeast MS and adjacent
parts of far southwest AL late Monday morning into Monday afternoon.
Low level and deep layer shear does not appear to be overly
impressive with this system, but may be sufficient enough to sustain
a convective line capable of producing embedded strong wind gusts as
it enters our southeast MS/far southwest AL counties late Monday
morning into Monday afternoon. The overall severe threat still looks
marginal at this time. Highs Monday afternoon change little with
readings ranging in the lower to mid 80s over inland areas and in
the mid 70s to near 80 along the immediate coast and beaches.

In terms of ongoing coastal hazards: many of our local beaches
reported double red flags (waters closed to the public) on Saturday
due to dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Expect similar
conditions today as a HIGH risk of deadly rip currents continues
given the persistent southeasterly flow and increased swell along
area beaches. Surf remains high between 4-7 feet today before slowly
coming down to 3-5 feet by late Monday afternoon or early Monday
evening. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM Monday,
while the HIGH rip current risk continues along area beaches through
Tuesday night. /21

SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 505 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A shortwave trough moving over the Southeast/Tennessee River Valley
Monday night into Tuesday deamplifies and shifts east a mean upper
ridge over the East coast. Another upper ridge builds north from old
Mexico over the Mississippi River Valley though mid week, moving
over the East Coast by the end of the week. A weakly organized
surface ridge that has developed over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico shifts north, reorganizing over the Eastern Conus as the
second upper ridge develops. A deep layer of Gulf moisture that has
moved over the Mississippi/Alabama line (with precipitable h20
values in the 1.4"-1.75") decreases as mid/upper level dry air moves
over the Southeast with the building upper upper ridge.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to last into Monday
night, with best coverage being over the western half of the
forecast area. With decent instability (SBCapes in the 1000-1500J/kg
range) but marginal to meh wind shear, there may be a strong to
marginally severe storm, but organized storms are not expected.
Precipitation decreases through mid week with the decreasing
moisture levels and increasing subsidence, but as low level flow
becomes better organized the end of the week into the weekend,
moistures levels increase again. Enough subsidence from the upper
ridge remaining over the Southeast will help to temper rain chances
for the coming weekend. At this point, best chance of rain will be
over the northern-most portions of the forecast area. There has been
a trend for rain chances to increase this weekend, so may nudge PoPs
up in coming forecasts.

Guidance is advertising temperatures around to a bit above seasonal
norms at the beginning of the week rising to well above by the end.
Low temperatures see a bit of an increase, ranging from around 60 to
mid 60s Monday night to low 60s to upper 60s Thursday night on. High
temperatures see the biggest increase, from low to mid 80s Tuesday
to mid to upper 80s inland, low 80s along the coast by Thursday.
/16



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  82  65  81  66  84  65  85 /   0  40  40  40   0  10   0   0
Pensacola   68  79  67  80  67  82  67  82 /   0  10  20  30   0   0   0   0
Destin      68  78  68  79  68  81  68  82 /   0  10  10  20   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   60  85  62  83  62  88  62  89 /   0  20  30  40   0  10   0   0
Waynesboro  63  84  62  83  63  86  62  88 /   0  60  60  50   0  20   0  10
Camden      60  85  62  81  61  86  61  88 /   0  30  50  40   0  10   0   0
Crestview   59  85  61  85  61  88  61  89 /   0  10  10  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ630>634-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$

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