Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
000
FXUS64 KMOB 261225
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
725 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
...New UPDATE...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 725 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Forecast, with regard to PoPs, is looking good with likely to
categorical PoPs moving east across the forecast area this
morning, gradually diminishing from west to east this afternoon.
We have coordinated with SPC and the general consensus is that the
severe threat has all but ended for our area, but some gusty winds
up to 30 to 35 MPH could be possible with heavier showers and
with the windshift along the leading outflow boundary this
morning.
Gradient winds are gradually diminishing over the region as well.
Although winds will still be a little breezy, up to 20 to 25 mph
outside of convective areas, the Wind Advisory was allowed to
expire at 7 AM.
Likewise, with the winds diminishing, the Gale Warning for the
Marine Area was also allowed to expire at 7 AM, although a Small
Craft Advisory will remain in effect for the Gulf marine zones
through 1 AM Wednesday.
The High Surf Warning will continue through 10 AM this morning,
but waves decrease enough for the Warning to become a High Surf
Advisory for the remainder of today, tonight and into early
Wednesday morning.
Updated products indicating these changes will be issued shortly.
/12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 653 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/
..New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
IFR conditions (ceilings and visibilities) in the vicinity of an
area of rain and showers that will be moving across the region
this morning. Otherwise, MVFR conditions outside of the
heavier shower areas. Gradient winds in advance of the rain area
are gradually diminishing, but still south to southeast at 15 to
20 knots in most locations. Along the leading edge of the rain
area, where the more convective cells are located, a quick
windshift associated with the outflow boundary is producing
northwesterly winds that occasionally will gust to 30 to 35 knots.
The area of showers and storms will move across the central and
eastern portions of our forecast area this morning, then generally
moving east of the area by early afternoon. The northerly winds
become more synoptically established this afternoon through
tonight, gradually diminishing. /12
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 444 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/
.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
A drier airmass will move into the area late this afternoon and
tonight as rain moves east out of the area as surface low pressure
along the central Gulf coast region early this morning moves off
to the east later today. Southwesterly flow aloft continues
through the near term period, but height falls and any significant
forcing/dynamics will be lifting quickly north away from our area
this morning in the southwesterly flow aloft to the east of a
broad upper trough over the central CONUS. Ongoing showers, and a
few thunderstorms, will sweep east across our forecast area this
morning, but with best support lifting out the severe threat
appears somewhat diminished. There could still be a small area of
instability work far enough inland over our area to maintain a
small severe threat this morning, however (mainly along the I-65
corridor in AL and over the western FL panhandle). By this
afternoon, most of the convection is expected to have moved east
of most of our area, but some showers possibly lingering over the
far eastern counties into this evening. Late tonight and Wednesday
look for mainly dry conditions across the entire forecast area. A
broad upper trough remains in place over the central CONUS today
through Wednesday, so mild and near normal temperatures are
expected. Highs both today and Wednesday will be in the 70s. Lows
tonight will range from the mid and upper 40s over far inland
areas of southeast MS and southwest AL, but in the 50s for areas
further south toward the coast. Coastal impacts (high surf
through this morning, rip currents through late Wednesday) will
continue but will be gradually improving. Will still be a little
breezy today, especially this morning, but not as windy as
yesterday, and the Wind Advisory will expire at 7 AM. /12
SHORT/LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
The broad upper trough will be moving east across our area
Wednesday night, and move off to our east by Thursday. A
west to northwest upper flow develops on Thursday as the upper
trough moves east and surface high pressure building east across
our area. Dry and warm conditions the persist on Friday and
through the weekend as a surface high pressure drifts eastward
over the area. Southerly flow returns by early next week as a
result of the surface high pressure becoming centered over the
western Atlantic. Upper flow also becomes more zonal early next
week as an upper ridge pushes out over the southern Gulf. Moisture
will begin to increase slightly on Monday, but conditions should
still remain dry given the overall subsident pattern. Lows
Wednesday night will be similar to Tuesday night with 40s inland
and 50s closer to the coast. Highs on Thursday will primarily be
in the lower 70s. Lows Thursday night and Friday nights will
primarily be in the 40s with some lower 50s at the coast. Upper
ridging builds Friday through Monday, with return low level flow
setting up as surface ridge moves off and remains to our east. As
a result, moderating temperatures are expected. Daytime highs
over the weekend and into early next week will rise through the
70s and into the 80s for most locations by Monday. Overnight lows
Saturday night and Sunday night will be in the 50s for inland
locations but low to mid 60s along the immediate coast. 14/12
MARINE...
Issued at 444 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Strong onshore flow will persist through this morning ahead
of the approaching system. Frequent gusts to gale force are
likely through early this morning, with winds decreasing to
advisory levels later today and continuing through tonight.
Hazardous conditions for small craft likely through today.
Moderate offshore flow will prevail with gradually diminishing
seas in the wake of the system Wednesday through Friday. /12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 76 52 76 49 72 44 74 49 / 80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 74 56 76 52 72 48 72 52 / 90 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 72 59 75 55 73 51 71 54 / 90 30 20 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 74 49 76 46 72 41 76 44 / 90 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 75 47 71 45 70 41 74 46 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 71 48 71 46 68 40 73 46 / 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 73 52 78 48 73 42 76 45 / 100 20 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for ALZ265-
266.
High Surf Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for ALZ265-266.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ202-
204-206.
High Surf Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for FLZ202-204-
206.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM CDT Wednesday for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
&&
$$
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