628
FXUS61 KRLX 120628
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
228 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry weather into the start of the new
work week amid a warming trend. Wet weather returns Monday
night into Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Sunday

After a chilly start, any lingering patchy valley fog should
dissipate in the first few hours after sunrise, and we`ll be
well on our way to a dry, mild, and mostly sunny Mother`s Day.
Highs will be a few degrees below normal, and forecast soundings
would indicate the potential for some 15-20 mile per hour gusts
in the afternoon. Clear skies and gentle S`ly or calm winds will
allow for lows near to a few degrees below normal tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 142 PM Saturday...

Monday looks to be mainly dry and warm with high pressure, surface
and aloft in control. There will be the possibility for isolated
showers or storms as the day progresses, and a weak shortwave,
combined with daytime heating affects the area out ahead of the main
system. Chances for showers and storms increase Monday night into
Tuesday as a low in the southern stream forms, and eventually opens
into a wave as it moves across our area. We look to get a period of
decent/soaking rain, but overall, it looks like the axis of greater
moisture/precipitation should remain generally to the south and east
of our area, thus mitigating much in the way of anything other than
localized water issues.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1212 PM Saturday...

Active weather will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as
aforementioned wave moves east of the area. A brief break in the
precipitation is possible around Thursday as high pressure builds
into the area, however, another low in the southern stream is
expected to affect us once again towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

Dry weather is expected over the region, with VFR conditions
across the bulk of the area through the TAF period. Some patchy
valley fog has formed in the most sheltered valleys, but many
TAF sites still have wide dew point depressions as of 06z, so it
is questionable if any sites will see fog tonight. As a result,
any fog mention was removed from prevailing weather, but was
kept in TEMPO groups for some of the more susceptible terminals.
Otherwise, once any fog dissipates, the only other thing of note
regarding aviation will be the potential for some 13-20kt gusts
from the northwest during the afternoon hours today.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog through 12z; otherwise,
high confidence.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, coverage, and intensity of fog
tonight may vary from the forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 05/12/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
Areas of IFR visibility or ceilings are possible in rain Tuesday
afternoon and night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FK