Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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645 FXUS61 KRNK 081430 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1030 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday when a cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic. Cooler conditions will arrive for the weekend with the potential for mountain showers. Warmer air should return during next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1030 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1) The severe threat is decreasing overall. Showers and thunderstorms are possible later this evening into tonight. 2) A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Cloud debris from earlier showers and thunderstorms is crossing over the Appalachian Mountains in association with an outflow boundary. The latest 12Z RNK sounding reveals a notable amount of westerly flow and drier air just above the surface. Based on the latest high-resolution models, the severe threat appears to be shifting south towards North Carolina and Tennessee. As a result, the threat in Virginia and West Virginia is decreasing. Temperatures were tweaked slightly lower to account for the cloud cover. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may occur in northwest North Carolina during the next several hours, but the best chances may not take place until late this evening into tonight as the outflow boundary is buckled back northward as a warm front due to an approaching low pressure system in the Plains. Showers and thunderstorms could reach the mountains but fade before completely crossing the Blue Ridge overnight. The antecedent conditions still remain rather dry, so any flooding threat seems minimal. The cold front from the aforementioned low pressure system will cross the Mid Atlantic on Thursday. However, the central area of low pressure should pass to the north over Pennsylvania. Some of the models indicate the showers and thunderstorms possibly splitting Virginia and West Virginia during Thursday afternoon, but the chances will remain in the forecast due to the dynamical and orographical lift possible along with the warm and humid air. The wind could also turn breezy from the west during Thursday as the cold front passes. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 500 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: 1. Chance of storms decreasing on Friday. 2. Temperatures will turn cooler by Friday. An upper level shortwave on Friday will have its potential limited by reduced moisture availability in the wake of Thursday`s frontal passage. There will still be scattered showers and storms, though the severe risk is much lower. Temperatures will cool to the 60s and low 70s Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 500 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Daily chances for showers - Cooler at the end of the week At upper levels flow becomes more west to northwest as a long wave through develops over the northeast United States on Saturday. A short wave coming through the northwest flow will bring a cold front through the region Saturday night and Sunday. This will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the mountains. Maximum temperatures through Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with a gradual warming trend next week. The coldest overnight lows will be Friday night. A few of the typically favored locations may cool into the 30s. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 625 AM EDT Wednesday... A line of storms over West Virginia this morning will continue to progress south. Will see some increased cloud cover from these, along with the potential for an isolated thunderstorm and some gusty winds from through perhaps 13z for LWB/BLF. Gradually clearing through the day and thunderstorms may redevelop again late this evening and overnight. Periods of IFR/LIFR. Winds generally SSW today. Some fog development is possible again across the region tonight. Forecast confidence is average. Extended Aviation Outlook... Unsettled weather is expected through Saturday. Daily threat of SHRA/TSRA through at least Friday. This will bring periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds through Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times. Some improvement over the weekend especially Sunday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...BMG