Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
996 FXUS62 KTBW 071758 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 158 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Minimal changes to the pattern for the next couple of days as high pressure over the western Atlantic remains in control. Ridging aloft will also continue to build over the area today and tomorrow, supporting the unseasonably warm temperatures and lack of rain. A sturdier west coast sea breeze will push any shower development further east once contact with the east coast sea breeze is established. Given the dry conditions of the atmosphere, showers and storms will be very isolated, if they get going at all. The pattern holds steady through Thursday, with afternoon temperatures well into the 90s each day, and minimal PoPs. Moving into Friday a weak cold front dips into Florida, bringing a bit of added moisture and increased chances of rain, especially for areas north of I4. This front is expected to stall to the south, keeping rain chances elevated through the weekend. Another system early next week moving in from the Gulf of Mexico, looks to bring more significant rain chances, but it is still too early to tell the specifics of that system as of now. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR conditions prevail. SE winds will increase and move onshore as the afternoon sea breeze develops. Dry conditions, and a weak east coast sea breeze should keep any convection well east of TAF sites, except maybe LAL. && .MARINE... Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 With the high pressure ridge across Florida, winds will continue to be mostly out of the S/SE before turning onshore each afternoon with sea breeze development. Rain stays away from the waters until Friday when a weak cold front moves over the northern waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 No major fire weather concerns through the period, even with critically low RH values, winds will remain below criteria. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 90 77 89 / 0 10 0 0 FMY 74 93 74 92 / 0 10 0 0 GIF 71 95 73 95 / 10 10 0 0 SRQ 72 89 75 87 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 66 92 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 77 88 78 88 / 0 0 0 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce