Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 211654

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
954 AM MST Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A strong but mainly dry weather system will move
across the area today and Tuesday. Look for gusty afternoon south
to southwest winds each day, strongest today. Limited moisture
will result in a slight chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms over portions of the area, especially western
Coconino County. From Wednesday onward, expect the usual
afternoon spring breezes with temperatures warming to above normal


Gusty winds remain on track for this afternoon under periods of
dense cloud cover. Will continue to monitor current forecast, but
no major changes are expected this morning.


.PREV DISCUSSION /226 AM MST/...A center of low pressure was
spinning over central California this morning, slowly heading
southeastward. Over the next couple of days, the low will wobble
to a position over southern California then head northward across

For Today and Tuesday...The main impact for northern Arizona from
this low pressure system will gusty south to southwest winds. The
strongest winds will be today generally at 15 to 25 mph gusting
to 35 mph resulting in an elevated fire danger across all of
northern Arizona compared to Sunday. The very strongest of these
winds will be located from about Happy Jack, Winslow and Dilkon
eastward where wind gusts to around 40 mph are expected and where
a Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon and early evening.
Winds will remain gusty on Tuesday and only a bit weaker so fire
weather will remain a concern. Limited moisture/instability will
result in a slight chance of showers and storms across
northwestern Arizona today. On Tuesday, look for a better chance
for showers and thunderstorms across northwest Arizona as the low
brushes that portion of the state. High temperatures will be 3 to
6 degrees cooler on Tuesday as a result of a cooler air mass
associated with the low.

From Wednesday into the weekend...Models show a distinct warmup
as a sharp ridge builds over Arizona. Look for the usual afternoon
spring breezes with temperatures climbing to around 10 degrees
above normal. From Saturday into Sunday, models are showing
another disturbance brushing Arizona. At the very least winds are
expected to strengthen as the ridge shifts eastward and pressure
gradients for southwest flow strengthen. Likely a bit cooler.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the next
24 hours with mid to high clouds. Southerly surface winds 15-20 kts
gusting to 25-35 kts with the strongest winds north of the Mogollon
Rim. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is possible in
western Coconino and northwest Yavapai counties including the
vicinity of KGCN after 20Z Mon. Winds becoming light and variable
again after 03Z Tue. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning in effect this afternoon for
southeastern Coconino county, portions of southern Apache and
Navajo counties. Expect strong southerly winds this afternoon
with the strongest winds north of the rim. There is a slight
chance of thunderstorms for western Coconino County both this
afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Winds decrease Tuesday but near
critical fire weather conditions continue.

Wednesday through Friday...Fair weather returns for Wednesday
through Friday with a warming trend in temperatures and light


this evening FOR AZZ113-114-116-117-140.




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