Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211847

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1247 PM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Rest of Today: At 18Z, scattered showers persisted in northwest
Kansas and northeast Colorado, on the N/NW periphery of an upper
level low centered invof the central KS/CO border. Expect showers
to decrease in coverage through mid-afternoon as the upper level
low progresses southeast toward Liberal and Woodward. With an
atypically moist airmass in place, any decrease in cloud cover
/increase in insolation/ could aid in the development of isolated
showers late this afternoon. The window for such activity will be
relatively small, however, as subsidence /mid-level warming/ in
the wake of the upper level low will overwhelmingly suppress
development around or shortly after 00Z.

Tonight: With a moist airmass already in place, a clearing trend
this evening, and variable or calm winds /no advection/, fog
is likely to develop over the Tri-State area tonight. Widespread
dense fog is a distinct possibility. Freezing fog would most
likely be confined to elevations 4000+ ft (essentially along/west
of the CO/KS border) where moisture profiles are shallow and
radiational cooling stronger.

Sunday: Fog and stratus would typically lift/scatter within
a few hours after sunrise this time of year, however, given weak
low-level flow /lethargic mixing/, dissipation may not occur
until late morning. Shortwave ridging aloft in the wake of the
upper low suggests sunny or mostly sunny skies during the
afternoon, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1247 PM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

For the extended period...the main focus for weather across the
region will be the movement/placement of an H5/H7 ridge. Models
start this system building/amplifying over the West Coast on Tuesday
with a slow trudge eastward towards the Rockies into Thursday. The
ridge remains amplified Thursday into Friday as it works out into
the Plains Region before flattening ahead of a cutoff low that moves
into West Coast at the start of the upcoming weekend.

However...before this upper ridge affects the area...the region will
see weak ridging over the region Sunday night into Monday...
replacing the current exiting system...for dry conditions.

While the ridge remains to our west...a shortwave will work down the
east side of the flow and out over the Central Plains. Based on
temps during this timeframe...main p-type will be showers...but some
colder air on the backside of the system Tuesday night will bring a
change over to a few snow showers...with no expected accum. Another
weak boundary traverses the region Thursday with the possibility of
a shower over the area...otherwise dry for the latter portion of the
upcoming week.

For temps...above normal conditions for highs Monday in the upper
60s as ridge in place...Tuesday-Thursday below normal temps with low
to mid 50s Tuesday increasing to only the lower and mid 60s for
Wed/Thurs. With the H5 ridge over the region at the end of the
week...temps continue to increase with upper 60s for highs Friday
and low to mid 70s on Saturday. For overnight lows...the region will
mainly see low to mid 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Showers will gradually dissipate and IFR-MVFR conditions will
gradually improve to VFR late this afternoon and early this
evening as an upper level low (centered invof the central KS/CO
border at 17Z) tracks southeast into OK. VFR conditions may be
short-lived, however, with areas of dense fog and/or low ceilings
likely to develop over the Tri-State area between 03-09Z Sunday.
Fog and/or low ceilings will quickly lift/scatter to VFR a few
hours after sunrise Sunday morning (13-15Z Sun). Light E/NE winds
will prevail this afternoon. Winds will become variable or calm
overnight and remain light during the day Sunday.




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