Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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653
FXUS62 KJAX 230646
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
246 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018


.NEAR TERM...Today and Tonight...A warm front will lift north
across the area this morning producing widespread showers across
ne Fl/se GA. Locally heavy rainfall(1-2") will be possible this
morning over mainly se Ga. An upper low to the west will drift
eastward into western Tn today which will shift the warm front and
deep moisture to our north by this afternoon. An east coast sea
breeze will likely develop this aftenroon with storms expected
given forecast CAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. A few
strong storms may develop mainly over eastern zones with hail and
gusty winds the main threats. A dry slot will push into the
western portion of the region late today with cold frontal passage
tonight decreasing the shower activity from west to east.

.SHORT TERM (Tuesday and Wednesday)...
Broad area of low pressure across most of the southeast US to start
the short term, and will deepen slightly as it moves eastward
into the Carolinas. Upper level trough will weaken slightly across
the Tennessee Valley. Locally, most of the precip will have moved
out of the area behind the front, though there is a very slight
chance of some wrap around moisture lingering across southeast
Georgia. Temperatures will return to normal or just slightly above
with highs near 80 expected areawide, and overnight lows near 60.
By Wednesday, upper level flow becomes more westerly, and skies
clear outwith highs in the low to mid 80s expected.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...
Most of Thursday should remain pleasant, with an upper level low
well to the north across the Great lakes. A rapidly moving
shortwave will rotate around the upper level low and into the
Southeast late in the day. This will bring a chance for scattered
showers again to southeast Georgia. SBCAPE looks feeble at this
time even during peak heating, so have left out thunder for now.
Another shortwave arrives Friday night/early Saturday morning and
digs further south, so have kept slight chance to chance PoPs for
this period as well. High pressure across the eastern Great Lakes
will build southward and upper level ridge will start building to
the west across the Mississippi River valley, and Sunday and
Monday look dry at this time. Temperatures will remain at or just
below normal to close out the month of April.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR conditions expected to continue today as
widespread showers perist through the day. Thunderstorms possible
this afternoon mainly in the 18z-22z time period.

&&

.MARINE...SCA conditions will continue today with southeasterly
winds near 20 knots becoming southerly and alowly decreasing
tonight. A cold front will move across the waters on Tuesday
shifting the winds to the sw and then west. Lighter winds will
then prevail through the middle of the week with subsiding seas.

Rip Currents: High risk again today due to strong onshore winds.
Moderate risk on Tuesday as winds become offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  59  78  58 /  80  40  10  10
SSI  74  64  76  62 /  70  60   0  10
JAX  79  64  83  60 /  80  50   0   0
SGJ  78  65  81  60 /  80  50  10   0
GNV  80  63  81  59 /  60  50  10   0
OCF  81  64  81  59 /  60  50  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal
     waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Zibura/Elsenheimer/



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