Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
961 FXUS65 KLKN 052102 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 202 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Generally cool with periods of precipitation expected for the first half of the week across northern Nevada. Afternoon breezes also in place across the region. Warming trend and fairer weather the latter half of the week. Potential for showers and thunderstorms next weekend, ultimately depending on how the upper pattern evolves. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night Upper low continues to progress east out of the forecast area tonight with showers and thunderstorms gradually dissipating under northwest flow. Although a few snow showers are expected to linger into Monday morning for portions of Elko County. The winter weather advisory for the Ruby Mtns/E Humboldt Range and Northern Elko County higher than 6500 feet has subsequently been extended thru 8AM Monday. Additional snow totals of 2-4 inches are expected around 6500 feet with the high elevations expected to receive an additional 6 to 10 inches. Winds ease further overnight becoming light to breezy. Overnight low temperatures reside in the low 20s to low 30s. A brief break in showers is expected Monday morning under rising heights as what could be argued as a weak transient ridge moves across the forecast area. Next upper wave brings another cold front into the region from the northwest beginning Monday afternoon. Another round of valley rain and snow showers and mountain snow is expected for northern Nevada, persisting thru the night, with central Nevada remaining mostly dry. This will be a weaker frontal passage and impacts will remain sub advisory criteria. Gusty winds again in place Monday with gusts 20 to 30 mph. Daytime high temperatures reside in the low 50s to low 60s with overnight lows in the low 20s to low 30s. && .LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday Some lingering showers and breezy conditions will persist for much of the day Tuesday as a broad long-wave trough encompasses over much of the western U.S. and northern plains. A 15-20% chance isolated thunderstorms is possible across northern Elko county in the afternoon. Quiet conditions expected as ridge of high pressure influences the region mid to late next week. Meanwhile, a closed low over Montana begins to retrograde and may bring isolated thunderstorms over portions of northern Nevada by next weekend. Highs early next week will start out in the 50s and 60s before climbing into the 70s by late next week. Lows will range from the 20s and 30s. Winds will be breezy to locally windy each afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30 mph in the windier locales. && .AVIATION...A storm system will move across northern and central NV through Monday. Light to moderate snow showers will continue today with CIGs and VIS lowering to MVFR/IFR for most TAF sites. KTPH looks to remain dry. Weak instability sets up across much of the region this afternoon, with a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms at KBAM and KEKO through the early evening hours. Shower activity expected to taper off this evening and overnight. VCSH may be present Monday morning and afternoon, but will remain generally north of the I-80 corridor. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with CIGs at 5KFT and above. Breezy winds from the W-NW expected to affect all TAF sites, increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts as high as 20-25 knots. KWMC remains AMD NOT SKED due to communication issue. && .HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams, creeks, and rivers throughout northern and central Nevada due to seasonal snow melt. Modest increases have been noted in faster responding creeks and streams due to recent rainfall and snowfall. Increased flows may additionally be noted on other streams and rivers over the next several days. However, cool temperatures thru the first half of the week will continue to help mitigate high elevation snow melt and subsequent runoff. The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain resides in action stage and is forecast remain in action stage for the next several days. The Humboldt River at Comus resides in minor flood stage and is forecast to remain in minor flood stage for the next few days while gradually decreasing. The river is forecast to fall into action stage mid week. Wildhorse Dam currently resides in action stage and is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. The Owyhee River near Mountain City resides near action stage. The river is forecast to continue to range in and out of action stage for the next several days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday ABOVE 6500 FEET in Northern Elko County. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range. && $$ 92/90/90