


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
968 FXUS66 KLOX 150553 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1053 PM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS...14/757 PM. Night through morning low clouds and patchy fog continue for coasts and most valleys through most of this week. A cooling trend will develop Tuesday and continue through the middle of the week when valley highs are only expected to be in the 80s. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...14/755 PM. ***UPDATE*** The marine inversion early this evening was around 1100 ft deep at LAX and around 1300 ft deep at VBG and should deepen some overnight. Low clouds remained along or just off the coast this afternoon and were already expanding along the coast and moving inland over the coastal plain early this evening. The low clouds are expected to push a bit further inland into the adjacent vlys overnight. Otherwise and elsewhere, mostly clear skies will prevail thru the night. Breezy to gusty SW to W winds, strongest over the L.A. County mtns and Antelope Vly foothills, with isolated gusts to Advisory levels, will slowly diminish overnight. The current forecast is on track in the short-term and do not anticipate any zone updates this evening. ***From Previous Discussion*** Mostly low impact weather across the area the next several days. Interior areas will be feeling much cooler as increasing onshore flow and a deepening marine layer usher in cooler air off the ocean. Latest forecast soundings indicate a marine layer depth around 2000-2500 feet tonight in the LA Basin, then increasing further to around 3000 feet by Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Interior areas will drop a good 10 degrees from today`s highs as soon as Tuesday with slower cooling the rest of the week. Most coastal valleys will top out in the low to mid 80s which is 5-10 degrees below normal, with daily morning low clouds and fog. The only uncertainty in the forecast is with the potential for some monsoon showers by around Thursday. Ensemble solutions and deterministic runs have both been trending less favorable for monsoon conditions across southwest California. Thursday would be the best chance but moisture is pretty minimal despite a moderately favorable upper level pattern from the southeast. Will continue to monitor but for now the forecast is only indicating around a 10 percent change of showers and storms across the eastern LA County mountains and AV. .LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...14/140 PM. Once again a mostly low impact forecast weather pattern through early next week. Friday is another day of possible monsoon moisture but LA County remains on the far western periphery of it so chances for any mountain/AV showers or storms remains at around 10%. Otherwise, a slow warming trend due to weakening onshore flow will begin Friday with 1-3 degrees of warming each day through about Sunday then leveling off there through early next week with temperatures within a few degrees of normal. The marine layer will start to shrink away from the valleys but remain near the coast through the period where the warming trend will be much more gradual. && .AVIATION...15/0514Z. At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1000 feet deep. The top of the inversion was at 4200 feet with a max temperature of 25 C. For the 00Z TAF package, high confidence in KPMD and KWJF. There is a 20% chance of LIFR conditions at KPRB 12Z-16Z. Moderate confidence in the remainder of the TAFs. Timing of flight category changes could be off by +/- 90 minutes. There is a 30 percent chc of 1 to 3 hours of SCT conds in the afternoon for sites with no clearing fcst. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of flight category changes could be of by +/- minutes. There is a 30 percent chc of SCT conds 20Z-23Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival of low clouds may occur any time between 0730Z and 0930Z. SCT-SKC conds could arrive as early as 17Z. && .MARINE...14/818 PM. Overall, tonight through Saturday winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across all the coastal waters. From Friday night through Saturday, there is a 20% chance of SCA level winds around Point Conception. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MW/Sirard AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...RAT/CS SYNOPSIS...MW/Sirard weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox